Liverpool 1-0 Hearts

Goals:
Webster (OG) 78'

"A narrow, 1-0 win would suit me just fine. It could be a lucky 1-0 win for all I care, similar to the away leg against Gomel."

How prescient.

Believe me, I'm more surprised than you are; there won't be very many posts referencing how I correctly predicted something. Because it doesn't happen often.

Nonetheless, for all the discomfort, a 1-0 away win does suit me just fine. Sure, the line-up was questionable; Carragher, Spearing, Shelvey, and Adam all had frightening, horrible moments; and the only reason Liverpool are taking a lead into the home leg is a Hearts own goal.

Make no mistake, Liverpool struggled their way to this fortunate victory. The midfield, with Spearing and Adam holding, Shelvey in an attacking role, and Henderson on the right, was fairly dire. Carragher, surprisingly starting instead of Coates, looked even more heavy-legged than usual, often troubled by Sutton. Borini was frequently isolated, and Sterling was Liverpool's only attacking threat.

But Hearts weren't much better. Liverpool's failings made them look far better than they actually were. The home side threatened Reina just once until the last few frantic minutes: a neat passing move ending with Taouli's back-heel setting up Novikovas in the 11th minute, whose 30-yard blast forced Reina to palm behind. The frequent switching between Templeton, Taouli, and Novikovas unsettled Liverpool, and while Liverpool had more possession, Hearts usually had more threatening possession, but the defense still rarely broke. Jack Robinson, frequently challenged, did admirably, as did Kelly and Agger more often than not.

Liverpool's midfield seemingly tried to play as fluidly as Hearts'. Shelvey and Henderson often switched positions, Adam tried to burst forward from deep to join the attack. The latter forced the first save from McDonald, charging forward and having his low shot palmed away in the ninth minute, but all too often, Liverpool's midfield looked disjointed. Shelvey and Adam both attempted too many Hollywood passes, which (it goes without saying) didn't come off, while Spearing was caught out of position and gave simple balls away time and time again. Relegated to the right, just like last season, Henderson found it difficult to make an impact outside of two chances in two minutes – first winning possession in the final third, setting up Shelvey which ended with Borini's shot blocked, then a wicked early cross from the right that just eluded the open Borini.

Otherwise, Liverpool were reliant on Sterling, looking for him at every opportunity, hoping his pace would see him past defenders. And it usually ended with him out-pacing the right back, cutting inside, but seeing his shot either blocked or sail wide. But in the 45th, he cleverly intercepted an ill-conceived cross-field pass, bursting forward to set up Borini, who could only hit the post. Just like Saturday; meet the new season, same as the old season.

The second half proceeded in the same fashion, with a couple more chances for Hearts – both of Liverpool's making, both wide of the target – until Rodgers made substitutions: Downing for Robinson, then Allen for Spearing. Downing added slightly more threat in attack, but Allen made the difference, settling the muddled midfield, his composure extending to others. The goal followed soon after, extended possession in Liverpool's half (which started after a throw-in following Allen's interception) dragging defenders into the middle, Sterling to Downing to Henderson, who spread play wide to a wide-open Kelly, in acres of space on the right. Borini couldn't get on the end of his dangerous cross, but an unsighted Webster shinned it into his own net. Again, sometimes, often, it's better to be lucky than good.

From there, it was an exercise in keeping possession and taking the sting out of the match, an exercise Liverpool desperately need practice in. And it worked for 10 minutes, until Hearts threatened twice, their two best chances of the match, in the 88th and 90th minutes. First, the substitute Driver luckily scuffed a ten-yard shot after Adam failed to track back after committing a foul and Carragher awkwardly failed to clear. Then, neither Adam nor Shelvey chased the ball after Agger's headed clearance, assuming the other would clean up. Taouli immediately put the ball in the box, Paterson outmuscled Downing to claim possession, but Reina excellently parried his low, angled shot. Phew. That Adam Morgan made his senior debut in injury time was the most-pleasing moment outside of the goal and the final whistle.

Sterling played well, Robinson and Kelly got much needed match time, Allen looked excellent off the bench, Reina made the three saves he needed to make, and Borini worked diligently no matter his constant isolation. Rodgers learned something, for good or ill, about all involved. Liverpool played an under-strength, fairly young line-up, and Liverpool won.

All that matters is Liverpool won.

Liverpool at Hearts 08.23.12

2:45pm ET, live in the US on FSC

Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 3-0 Gomel (h), 1-0 Gomel (a)
Hearts: n/a

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-3 West Brom (a); 3-0 Gomel (h); 1-0 Gomel (a)
Hearts: 2-2 Inverness CT (h); 1-1 Hibernian (a); 2-0 St. Johnstone (h)

Goalscorers (Europa League):
Liverpool: Borini, Downing, Gerrard, Johnson 1
Hearts: n/a

Referee: Florian Meyer (GER)

Liverpool have actually had Meyer as a referee twice before, the 0-0 draw at Sparta Prague in Liverpool's last Europa League campaign and a 1-0 win over Steaua Bucharest at Anfield in 2003.

Guess at a line-up
Reina
Kelly Coates Agger Robinson
Henderson Allen
Downing Shelvey Sterling
Borini

As with every match preview for a cup tie, the question is "how strong with Liverpool's line-up be?" Not only are Liverpool more likely to use youngsters and reserves in this competition, but the subsequent match is against the reigning Premier League champions.

Which meant it was no surprise when the BBC's Ben Smith, and others, reported that Gerrard, Johnson, Skrtel, and Suarez weren't included in the traveling squad earlier this morning.

The provisional squad is reportedly: Reina, Jones, Kelly, Agger, Carragher, Coates, Flanagan, Shelvey, Lucas, Adam, Allen, Henderson, Spearing, Downing, Borini, Carroll, Wilson, Robinson, Sterling, Eccleston.

More than any other, Gerrard should be rested, not only for Saturday's disappointment but because he needs to be used more sparingly this season if he's going to make it through the entire campaign. I was surprised to see him play both legs against Gomel, but that was arguably still preseason. Now, with three matches in eight days, playing him in this one would have been even more surprising and, honestly, makes little sense.

Lucas, even though he wasn't one of those announced as absent, is in a similar situation. He wasn't at his best against West Brom, arguably still showing the effects of his extended injury. Tomorrow's seems a match for the "second-string" midfield: some combination of Henderson, Shelvey, Spearing, and Adam. There have been rumors about both Adam and Spearing leaving Liverpool (the former if anyone will pay £5m, the latter on loan to Bolton), and if any of the usual starters play, Allen seems the likeliest because of his relative inexperience at the club.

Agger looked likely to start even before Skrtel's reported absence, if only because he's suspended for Sunday's match, but the rest of the back four is guesswork. Coates should be the other center-back if Liverpool really are using this competition to develop players (as they should be), but you'll hear the internet howl around 1:45pm ET tomorrow hf it's Carragher. Enrique's also still dealing with the knock picked up in training last week. I'm excited to see Jack Robinson play, assuming Jack Robinson does play, and it's not Kelly shifting over to left back with Carragher or Flanagan on the right. Or Agger at left back.

I've been trying to come up with someone other than Downing for the right flank, but Liverpool have so few options. Assaidi is ineligible, cup-tied for just the qualifying stages because of his participation with Heerenveen; reports from Holland also suggest he's more likely to play on the left when available as well. Cole is injured. Suso isn't registered in the UEFA squad, at least for this round, while Pacheco started in Monday's u21 match. With Suarez absent, Borini will probably play in the middle, with Sterling likely to be on the left. I guess there's a small chance Carroll could start up front, flanked by Sterling and Borini, but it seems a very small chance. That leaves Shelvey, who played there in the second half against Leverkusen. And that's it. This position needs needs needs to be addressed before the transfer window shuts, more than any other.

New manager John McGlynn has Hearts playing in a 4-1-4-1 system, winning the opening match of the SPL campaign against St. Johnstone before draws against city rivals Hibernian and Inverness Caley Thistle. If he names a full-strength XI, it should look something like: McDonald; Peterson, Zaliukas, Webster, Grainger; McGowan; Templeton, Taouli, Barr, Driver; Sutton.

Center-backs Zaliukas and Webster are the cornerstones of the side – it's probably no coincidence that Caley Thistle came back from 0-2 down, despite having playing with 10 men, after Zaliukas was injured. If the Lithuanian club captain is unable to play, chances are Barr drops into defense with Robinson coming into the side, as Hearts lined up in the second half on Saturday. Striker Sutton has scored from the spot in two of Hearts' three matches this season, while Driver and Templeton – or Novikovas if he starts instead – are dangerous wingers; each has scored once this season, responsible for the three goals not scored by Sutton.

A mostly full-strength Tottenham demolished Hearts at this stage of the competition last season, winning 5-0 at Tynecastle before the kids and reserves played out a 0-0 draw in London. The Jambos XI will look very different to last year's, with only four to six of the same players that started the loss against Spurs. But that match will almost assuredly be on players' minds before kick-off.

That's obviously not the required scoreline for Liverpool; that was a different, stronger Tottenham side and a different, weaker Hearts. A narrow, 1-0 win would suit me just fine. It could be a lucky 1-0 win for all I care, similar to the away leg against Gomel. The side needs to put Saturday's result behind them as quickly as possible, even if it'll be a very different XI, and an away win is the best way to do so. Further evolution in Rodgers' style would be welcome, more than welcome, but given the likely second-string nature of the squad and the importance of qualifying for the competition proper, the performance matters slightly less than the result.

On Suarez and Gerrard at West Brom

"Even if Liverpool gets better production from the supporting cast – and honestly, there's seemingly nowhere to go but up in that category – as [Suarez and Gerrard] go, so goes Liverpool."

I hate being right.

And yesterday, in the first match of the league campaign, Suarez misfired and Gerrard had little influence on proceedings, and Liverpool failed to take advantage when in control then succumbed to a wonder goal followed by multiple defensive errors and a sending-off. We're all well aware it's the not first time that's happened, and it most likely won't be the last. Agger and Skrtel's mistakes, Downing and Borini's ineffectiveness, and Phil Dowd being Phil Dowd also played a large role in Liverpool's inadequacy, but it sure felt like the rot started at the top.

Suarez's shooting



That's abhorrent accuracy, and yet Suarez was the only Liverpool player to put a shot on target. All three of Gerrard's were off target, while Borini, Cole, Downing, Johnson and Kelly took one and missed one. Two of Suarez's shots, the two off-target from inside the six-yard box, were clear-cut chances, errant headers from Johnson and Borini's excellent crosses. The first, mistiming his jump for Johnson's cross after good work from the stand-in left back on the half-hour mark, sure felt like a turning point when West Brom opened the scoring 13 minutes later.

But this is nothing new. Suarez had one of the worst clear-cut chance conversion rates in the league last season.

Opta's definition of a clear-cut chance:

A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range.

Suarez converted seven of his 25 clear-cut chances last season – 28%. Rooney? 17 of 29 (59%). Agüero? 13 of 27 (48%). Van Persie? 18 of 40 (45%). But those were three of the league's best finishers. However, this EPL Index chart (from this article) lists 33 attackers; just six had a worse conversion rate: Bendtner, Bale, Carroll, Defoe, Gervinho, and Kuyt. The league average was 39%; had Suarez converted at that rate, he would have scored three more goals last season.

His shooting accuracy agahnst West Brom was even worse than last season's abysmal return. 48 of his 128 total shots in 2011-12 were on target – 38% – compared to yesterday's 25%. He took eight or more shots in just one match, with 11 in the 1-1 draw against Norwich (the most any player took in a Premier League match last season), and at least tested Ruddy with six of those 11 even if he didn't score, including one near-miraculous save in the fifth minute of added time to preserve the draw.

Dan Kennett wrote extensively on this topic for The Tomkins Times back in March, and his findings remain relevant.

There will be matches where Suarez's is unerring, where Suarez scores in style early and often. Unfortunately, after 54 matches for Liverpool, those like his hat-trick against Norwich have become the exception rather than the rule. Admittedly, it's slightly easier to forgive missed chances when the player creates so many of the chances by himself. But his two best opportunities yesterday came from crosses put on a plate by Johnson and Borini, and he failed to hit the target on either.

I'm not necessarily saying that Suarez needs to be used differently, especially this early into Rodgers' reign. There's the temptation to demand he plays wide, not used as the main goal-scorer, which will only increase if this trend continues. And his talents might serve Liverpool just as well, if not better, on the flank. But his ability to run off the shoulder of the last man, to drag defenders out of position with his movement or with the ball at his feet, and his ability to involve others in the attack seem suited for his current role. He played on the flanks more often at Ajax, but it's no coincidence he's also become the central #9 for Uruguay since joining Liverpool.

However, if Suarez is going to play as a #9 in Rodgers' system, even if a roaming #9, a #9 as focused on creating as much as scoring, he needs to better that scoring return. And quickly.

Gerrard's passing



56 passes attempted, 46 completed. Just 17 passes into the attacking third, completing 12, with only one incomplete pass inside the penalty area.

Allen, Lucas, Suarez, Johnson, and Borini all completed more passes in that crucial area of the pitch. Gerrard's completion percentage in the final third was 71% – only Downing (7/10), Skrtel (1/5), and Reina (0/2) were less accurate, and both Skrtel and Reina were limited to long hoofed passes from their own half. Agger's red card started from one of those five unsuccessful attacking third passes, the mistake compounded by losing possession with so many Liverpool players in West Brom's half, as both Allen and Lucas went forward when Gerrard dropped deeper to receive possession.



Gerrard's overall pass completion percentage from open play was 82%, the worst of any outfield Liverpool player. And it's not as if the sending-off made him any less accurate, pushing too hard to try to haul Liverpool back; he was 27/33 when Agger went off, again, 82% completed, with nine of 11 successful in the attacking third but none of those 11 into the penalty box.



Gerrard also created two chances against West Brom – only Glen Johnson created more, with three – but both were fairly poor excuses for chances. The first, in the 50th minute, was when he spread play wide to Downing, with the winger running into traffic then taking an easily-blocked shot. The second came after Liverpool were down to 10 and down by two goals, in the 72nd minute, when he spread play wide to Cole, with the winger running into traffic then taking an easily-blocked shot.

There was little of the one-touch quick passing with Suarez, Borini, and Downing that caused so many problems against Gomel and Leverkusen. Gerrard passed to Suarez just five times; Allen and Kelly was Gerrard's most frequent targets, receiving eight and seven passes respectively from the captain. On the other hand, Suarez set Gerrard up 11 times – only Kelly to Skrtel, Johnson to Agger, and Agger to Johnson were more frequent combinations – but just one of those passes came inside the penalty area and just two were forward passes, one in the center circle and one where Gerrard burst forward from midfield ahead of the ball, as has been so crucial in the past.



And his crosses? Six attempted, zero successful. Borini also attempted six, but at least completed one – that one clear-cut chance for Suarez – while no other player attempted more than four. Incidentally, Liverpool delivered 22 crosses in total – they averaged 22.1 per match last season, the most in the league – but completed just three, a success rate of 14% where they averaged 19% in 2011-12. Needless to remind, but it was not a very successful tactic last season.

Moving Gerrard into a more attacking position was supposed to make him more influential, but he couldn't have been much less so on Saturday. Still, days like that will happen; time makes fools of us all and whatnot. But even when that happens, Gerrard's leadership and mentality remain vital qualities. They are more intangible qualities, but as captain, it's Gerrard's job to ensure heads don't drop and Liverpool keep playing after setbacks like Agger's red card or the second penalty. But Liverpool looked beaten as soon as West Brom's second went in; the last 25 minutes weren't even damage control, but playing out the clock, and it was little surprise that West Brom added a third. It wasn't the first time a team crumbled to dust after a sending off and it won't be the last, and, of course, a comeback was massively unlikely. But you never want to see the players look as if they believe that. All too often, Liverpool rolled over and died at the first sign of trouble last season. That trait cannot carry over into this one. Taking responsibility in an interview today, for the first penalty concession if little else, is a reassuring step, but words are far easier than deeds.

During this transitional phase with a new manager and a new system, Liverpool will rely on its established stars to carry them through difficult spells. It may not necessarily be fair to hold them to a higher standard, but it's warranted. Despite all else that occurred against West Brom – Dowd's decisions, Agger and Skrtel's penalties, inefficient flank play – when both Suarez and Gerrard disappoint, it's no surprise that Liverpool loses.

Liverpool 0-3 West Brom

Goals:
Gera 43'
Odemwingie 64' (pen)
Lukaku 78'

A little bit of optimism is a dangerous thing. The threatened, bound-to-happen set-back sure happened sooner than expected.

After two frightening minutes where they couldn't get the ball off of West Brom, Liverpool dominated the first half. Suarez is ever dangerous, but fails to convert four chances, while both Johnson and Borini also miss decent opportunities. Then, just before halftime, West Brom open the scoring through Gera, a goal the player couldn't replicate with a gun to his head, with the ball fortunately falling to his feet after Skrtel's clearing header then unerringly, unstoppably volleyed into the roof of the net. New season, meet the old season.

And then came the comedy. Another Suarez missed chance, a free kick curled wide of the post, then two penalties conceded, a red card, and a third goal to rub salt in the wounds.

It all started in the 58th. Gerrard gave the ball away after extended Liverpool possession, trying to find a well-marked Suarez with an unlikely pass, and West Brom stormed down the pitch with Liverpool wholly wide open in the middle as both Lucas and Allen had come forward to join the attack. Morrison found Shane Long with a long through-ball, taking full advantage of Liverpool's high back line, and the striker eluded Skrtel, who over-ran Long trying to mark too closely then comically slipped when Long spun away. Agger retreated, but Long out-paced him, then easily fell over as soon as Agger made contact. A soft penalty, but a penalty nonetheless. You'll hear that expression again soon. With matters compounded by a straight red for Agger, the last man denying a goal-scoring opportunity. Agger should just miss the Manchester City game, a one-match ban rather than three, but he'll be a very big miss in against that class of opposition.

Reina provided a slight ray of hope, saving Long's woeful spot kick, the first he's saved since Rooney's in March 2010. But it didn't last long. Three minutes later, Skrtel again donned the motley and jester's hat, intercepting Ridgewell's cross but failing to control and clear, unforgivably dawdling in his own box then accidentally, softly tripping Long when the striker slipped in to steal the ball. Again, Long went down all too easily, looking for the penalty. Again, Dowd complied. You can criticize Phil Dowd for many things, in today's game and in the past, but the penalties aren't really among them. Both were soft. It's safe to assume neither would be given to Suarez in those situations. But the striker went down when contact was made – even if light contact, even if incidental contact – and the referee blew his whistle. That's what happens. Don't put yourself in those situations. This time, Odemwingie made no mistake from 12 yards out.

Liverpool spent the final 30 minutes just trying to save face. Carragher replaced Downing after the first sending off, Cole replaced Lucas – who had been carded earlier – in the 69th, then Carroll replaced Cole, who seemingly injured his hamstring yet again, in the 79th. Trying to get back in the game, it was a fairly attacking 4-2-3 system, but it was West Brom who attacked. Morrison missed a sitter in the 72nd with Liverpool players caught up the pitch, then Lukaku scored with a point-blank back post header in the 78th after Liverpool once again failed to clear a set play. Suarez nearly notched a consolation in the last ten minutes but unsurprisingly spurned yet another chance, this one even easier than the first five, a free header wide of the far post after Borini's strong run and cross.

It's no surprise after a three-nil loss, but there are few positives to take from that match. Joe Allen played very well, completing 66 of 69 passes (including 24 of 25 in the final third), while Suarez catsed West Brom problems with everything but his shooting. Agger and Skrtel were typically solid until the 58th minute, but Skrtel absolutely fell apart after West Brom's first, and it's probably not coincidence that it happened after Agger departed. That's all I got. More importantly, the failings were failings we've seen before: missing chances despite creating chances and controlling possession, resorting to hoofs and crosses when unable to find a way through West Brom's solid back line, far too little contribution from the flanks – especially the frequent scapegoat Downing – and a failure to cope with opposition set plays coupled with mental errors in defense. Still, Rodgers' system worked in the first half outside of Liverpool's tentative start and dreadful finishing; it was the players who let him down with poor shooting then defensive mistakes.

Once again, another ex-Red punishes his former club. Not a manager, not a player this time, but an assistant manager. And Steve Clarke deserves a hell of a lot of credit. As with Liverpool's successes after his appointment in 2010-11, that win was built on defense, keeping Liverpool off the score-sheet when dominant, then having his side ruthlessly punish their mistakes.

Brendan Rodgers now becomes the sixth-straight Liverpool manager to fail to win his first league match, a streak dating back to Graeme Souness in May 1991. Dalglish lost at Blackpool, Hodgson drew against Arsenal, Benitez drew at Tottenham, Houllier lost against Leeds, and Evans drew at Norwich. Of course, that Souness was the one of those seven managers win their first match shows there's little predictive power in the first league result.

It may be the worst possible start, the worst top-flight opening day defeat since losing 1-6 to Chelsea in 1937, but it is still one match. And no matter how much we wished different, it will take time to turn this team around.

Liverpool at West Brom 08.18.12

10am ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
0-1 West Brom (h) 04.22.12
2-0 Liverpool (a) 10.29.11
1-2 West Brom (a) 04.02.11
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.29.10

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-1 Leverkusen (h) [friendly]; 3-0 Gomel (h); 1-0 Gomel (a)
West Brom: 2-0 Nottingham Forest (a); 3-1 Walsall (a); 1-1 Sheffield Wednesday (a) [all friendlies]

Referee: Phil Dowd

Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Lucas Henderson
Downing Gerrard Borini
Suarez

The Premier League officially starts tomorrow. It seems like it's been ages since the last season ended and yet I can't believe the new season's here so soon. Time flies when you're gossiping about potential signings, I guess.

Whether or not Joe Allen plays seems the only possible deviation from the XI which beat Gomel 3-0 eight days ago.

Allen has only trained for a few days since his move thanks to the midweek internationals. Where he played 90 minutes for Wales. And that's after two weeks of Olympics matches for Great Britain. I'd be surprised if he started tomorrow, no matter how much Rodgers wants him in the team as soon as possible. But needs must, and Rodgers will want the player in the team as soon as possible, so I'm ready to be surprised.

If Allen doesn't start, that midfield place will be filled by either Henderson or Shelvey. Shelvey played there against Gomel and didn't disappoint, but did look almost every bit his age compared to the otherwise full-strength XI. Henderson, slightly more experienced, slightly fresher, seems the more logical choice, but your guess is as good as mine.

Otherwise, I expect Liverpool to continue with the 4-2-3-1 system we've seen in the last two matches. If Henderson's included ahead of Shelvey, both he and Gerrard might play ahead of Lucas, more a 4-1-4-1 than 4-2-3-1 style of 4-3-3, but I suspect the formation deployed against both Gomel and Leverkusen will continue to be the template. Liverpool's back five writes, itself, Lucas' inclusion writes itself, Gerrard should continue to play as an attacking midfielder, and Liverpool don't have many other options for the front three. Borini reportedly picked up a knock earlier in the week which kept him out of Italy's friendly against England, but should be available tomorrow. New signing Oussama Assaidi would be lucky to even make the bench. Liverpool announced the completion of his transfer in the last hour, just after 3pm British time, but he would have to have been registered with the Premier League by 10am today to be included in tomorrow's squad.

This is somewhat shameless self-promotion, but I participated in a Q&A with Kevin Koczwara of LFC Boston yesterday. In it, Kevin rightly pointed out that any improvement in Liverpool's league form will come from beating the likes of West Brom et al given Liverpool's usually decent performances against the league best but woeful disappointment after disappointment against the bottom half of the table.

Liverpool have lost two of the last four meetings against the Baggies, two of the three matches when Albion were managed by current England boss and ex-Liverpool boss Roy Hodgson. Now, West Brom are managed by Liverpool's ex-assistant manager, Steve Clarke. I'm sure that bodes well.

Clarke's first move has been to notably strengthen West Brom's front line, signing Markus Rosenberg from Werder Bremen and bringing in Chelsea's Lukaku on loan. They've also added Ben Foster on a permanent deal, winger Yassine El Ghanassay from Gent, and Argentinean holding midfielder Claudio Yacob. The Guardian's West Brom preview, most of the Baggies' preseason matches, and this Birmingham Mail interview with Clarke suggests Albion will play a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Foster in goal; Reid, Olsson, McAuley, and Ridgewell in defense; Mulumbu and Yacob as the deeper midfielders; Gera, Morrison, and Odemwingie as the attacking line of three; and either Long or Lukaku up front.

Morrison and Olsson picked up knocks during the midweek internationals, but both may be fit in time for tomorrow's match. Rosenberg is less likely to be available, while Graeme Dorrans is on leave because of a family illness. Peter Odemwingie has been the thorn in Liverpool's side in the two losses over the last two seasons, scoring the winner last April and winning both penalties in April 2011.

Prior to those two losses, Liverpool had beaten West Brom in 13 consecutive meetings dating back to 1985, by a combined score of 38-2, and hadn't lost to West Brom since 1981. That's the sort of form Liverpool needs to rediscover against the league's lesser lights. No time like the present to remedy that failing.

On Oussama Assaidi

Usually when Liverpool signs a player, I've at least a passing familiarity with them. Sometimes, it's someone I've watched often – like Joe Allen, Andy Carroll, Stewart Downing, Charlie Adam, etc. You know, players bought from other Premiership sides. Less often, it's someone I've seen on a few occasions and can supplement with statistics and those damned YouTube videos, like Fabio Borini. And if I haven't seen them very often, the signing's been rumored for long enough that I can do a modicum of research; you know, like if the Gaston Ramirez rumors had any semblance of truth.

I had never heard of Oussama Assaidi until today. Not while he was playing with Heerenveen, as I rarely if every catch an Eredivisie match, and not linked with Liverpool, as none of the gossip sites, forums, or Twitter ITKs breathed a word of his name in the last couple of months. While it amuses me very, very much when that happens, it doesn't help my ability to analyze signings.

So I'm kind of at a loss as to how to approach this.

• Cursory biographical details: 24 years old (his birthday was yesterday), 22 caps for Morocco, 20 league goals in 68 appearances for Heerenveen, with 10 of those goals (and seven assists) coming last season.

• The YouTube videos are a good place to start. Of course, there's the much-needed caution that they don't make highlights of a player's bad decisions and bad matches, but it's a decent starting point. Here's the one linked on the official site when announcing the transfer. Here's another comprehensive compilation. Here's 11 minutes of highlights from Heerenveen 6-2 Twente, where Assaidi scored three and assisted three. Here's an audacious goal that didn't count, with Assaidi marginally offside, that's just fun to watch over and over and over.

• As usual, Twitter is a fairly big help. Most informed writers, such as Andy Brassell, Leander Schaerlaeckens, and Mohamed Moallim, among others, have described him as a speedy, versatile winger who's an excellent dribbler. Most say he's better on the left than right, more willing to take players on, run with the ball, and cut inside from that flank, more comfortable crossing from the right when he's on his stronger foot. Dutch analyst 11tegen11 linked to an 18-month-old match review of the aforementioned 6-2 demolition of defending league champions Twente where Assaidi scored three and created the other three. I especially liked this quote, linked by Andy Brassell, from Moroccan manager Eric Gerets to current QPR player Adel Taarabt: "Watch (Assaidi) & you'll figure why you're not in the team." Liverpool could certainly do with a better, harder-working version of the sometimes-gifted, often infuriatingly erratic Taarabt.

• Football-lineups.com is often one of my favorite resources; their line-ups show that Assaidi started on the left, in either a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 formation, in all 25 of his league starts for Heerenveen last season. He also came on as a sub twice, was subbed off in 13 of those 25 starts, and was chosen as football-lineups.com man of the match on four occasions, all in the first two months of the season.

So what does the transfer suggest for Liverpool?

First, it's finally one of those vaunted MONEYBALL!!!! type transfers we've heard so much about. A 24-year-old player, unknown by the masses, in the last year of his contract for all of a reported £3m. If he's a success, fantastic. If not, little harm done.

That he's primarily an inverted winger who scores and assists when cutting inside fits with how both Borini and Downing have played in the last two matches, and suggests he'll primarily be Borini's back-up on the left. What this means for Raheem Sterling is less certain, but I highly doubt it'll involve a loan for Sideshow Raheem.

I also doubt this will be Liverpool's only wide forward signing. Liverpool lost three of these kind of players over the summer – Kuyt, Maxi, and Bellamy – and have now replaced two with Borini and Assaidi. That Assaidi plays for Morocco, and will most likely miss most of January and February at the Africa Cup of Nations reinforces this notion. Morocco have to beat Mozambique over two legs during the September and October international matches, but they should be heavily favored to do so. This strengthens Liverpool's depth but doesn't cure those issues.

Finally, no parallels with previous Eredivisie signings. For every Afonso Alves or Mateja Kezman, there's Ruud van Nistelrooy, Dirk Kuyt, or Cheick Tiote. Or Luis Suarez. The league they come from doesn't ensure success or failure. Just felt the need to get that out there. And no parallels with Nabil El Zhar because don't. Just don't.

Assaidi will need time to adapt to Liverpool and time to adapt to the Premiership. That he played in a similar formation, if not similar system, at Heerenveen is a benefit, but it will still take time. That he should be limited to spot starts and substitute appearances behind Borini, mostly used on the left but capable of playing on either side if need be – if all goes according to plan – will be of great benefit to the player and his development at Liverpool.

It's a promising signing in a need position, with low risk and high reward. That's good business, the type of business that Liverpool haven't done nearly enough, and that's cause for optimism in and of itself.

Welcome to Liverpool, Oussama.

2012-13 Liverpool Season Preview

Year Zero? Year Zero.

Is this the third year zero or the first? It's the third year in a row where Liverpool have started the season with a new manager, something that's never happened in the club's 120-year history. Brendan Rodgers replaces Dalglish who replaced Hodgson who replaced Benitez. But if Hodgson wasn't year zero and Dalglish wasn't year zero, why is Rodgers?

Hodgson was the last dismal dying breath of the previous owners' malignant regime. Dalglish was never FSG's choice for Liverpool's renaissance, with their hand forced by the surprisingly improved results during the 2010-11 run-in. Brendan Rodgers is FSG's first manager, and their ownership will be defined by his results – not necessarily this season's results, but over the long term. Because this is a long-term hire. Which is why this is much more a year zero than any Liverpool season since 2004-05.

Summer Business:
In: Joe Allen (£15m), Fabio Borini (£10.4m) = £25.4m
Out: Alberto Aquilani (£7m), Fabio Aurelio (free), Craig Bellamy (free), Dirk Kuyt (£1m), Maxi Rodriguez (free) = £8m

Rodgers impressed FSG so much that they did away with their notion of a director of football, although Damien Comolli's almost-wholly inauspicious tenure may have made that an easier decision.

Comolli's one true success – aside from signing Luis Suarez, of course – was last summer's deadwood clear-out. Joe Cole somehow found his way back, but Konchesky, Poulsen, Jovanovic, Kyrgiakos, El Zhar, and Degen got gone and stayed gone, saving Liverpool millions after Hicks, Gillett, Purslow, and Hodgson wasted more millions on their purchases and salaries.

And as with last summer, Liverpool prioritized clearing out older players on relatively high wages, slash-and-burn agriculture so new fields can start from scratch. Or as close to scratch as possible.

If reports are to be believed, Rodgers didn't want to lose either Bellamy and Maxi – both would have fit fairly flawlessly into the new system – but relented to let them join boyhood favorites in their home countries. How touching. Kuyt was one of Liverpool's highest earners and a fan favorite, but his increasingly decreasing output made him more than expendable. We've finally passed the point of no return with Alberto Aquilani: no more band-aid loans, no more false hope that this might be the year where he returns to save the world. All, along with the sadly perpetually-broken Fabio Aurelio, cost Liverpool more than they were worth to the club or Rodgers' squad.

Rodgers first two signings followed this new template. Both are under 22, Premiership-experienced, teeming-with-potential starlets who've already made international debuts. Both are prototypical Rodgers-style players who Rodgers has managed before, and both fill problem areas from last season's Liverpool squad. And, incidentally, neither happen to be English.

The summer's business isn't over by any stretch of the imagination, and probably won't be until the last minute and last second of the transfer window. Liverpool will continue to try to sell Carroll, hoping that someone will pay somewhere near £20m and Carroll might actually agree to the move. We can scream, shout, and threaten all we want, but if City stump up £27m, Daniel Agger will probably depart as well. I am not liable for my words or actions if that happens, but we'll burn that bridge if we come to it.

Despite a still somewhat-too-shallow squad, there's only one huge hole apparent. And it's the drum I've been banging all summer: Liverpool needs needs needs at least one more wide forward to compete with Borini, Downing, Sterling, and Cole (and sometimes, possibly, Suarez). We've seen Clint Dempsey, Cristian Tello, Theo Walcott, Adam Johnson, and Gaston Ramirez mooted, but we've no idea who, if any, the club prefers. Or could get. Which, I guess, it how it should be. That Shelvey was used there for 45 minutes in Sunday's friendly – a position he played while on loan at Blackpool but assuredly isn't his best – demonstrates that the manager's cognizant of the issue as well. But whether he's able to rectify it before August 31 remains to be seen.

Expected Formation and Suspected Depth Chart:



Otherwise, Liverpool has a fairly strong first XI, and a fair bit of depth in certain positions. With the signing of Joe Allen, Liverpool has an impressive, versatile, and relatively youthful central midfield. Nearly every three-man midfield is built on the creator-passer-destroyer archetype: Gerrard, Henderson, Shelvey, and potentially Adam can play as the attacking midfielder creator; Allen, Henderson, Shelvey, and Adam can fill the passer role; and Lucas, Allen, and Spearing can play as the deeper destroyer. All but Gerrard are 26 or younger; Adam is 26, Lucas 25, Spearing 23, Allen and Henderson 22, and Shelvey is 20. If Liverpool sign Nuri Sahin on loan, as has been heavily rumored, the midfield will be even stronger, but that would seemingly demand someone make way, whether it's Shelvey loaned out or Adam sold.

If Agger stays (pleasepleaseplease don't make me beg), Liverpool's first-choice defense should remain one of the strongest in the league. He and Skrtel are arguably the best center-back pairing in the Premiership, while Glen Johnson is one of the best right-backs and Jose Enrique – for all his faults, especially in the opposition half – is at least "above average." Only City and United conceded fewer goals last season, with 29 and 33 to Liverpool's 40 (Everton also conceded 40). As with everywhere else in the squad, depth is a concern (except at right back), but Carragher remains serviceable – and, on the whole, impressed in preseason – while Coates has clear potential. Danny Wilson, Stephen Sama, and Andre Wisdom all made preseason appearances as well, and could all benefit from loan moves. Jack Robinson is another for the future, while both Johnson and Kelly can also deputize at left-back if need be.

Suarez, Borini, and Carroll (with the now-usual "if he stays" caveat) can all play as the central striker, with Morgan as fourth-choice back-up if the other three are somehow absent. None can replicate Suarez's all-around brilliance, but Borini has played as the focal point in Rodgers' system before, while Carroll demonstrated that there's at least a chance that he can fit in this style of play against Bayer Leverkusen.

However, the flanks remain an rather large issue. If Downing can continue in the form he's shown on the right in these very early matches, the Borini-Suarez-Downing troika could be very impressive; how they linked up against Gomel is the template, and in theory, should get even better as they familiarize with the system and each other. But if Borini or Suarez are missing, Liverpool could well be in trouble. Deep trouble.

Liverpool are going to play 4-3-3. Whether it's a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-2-3 variant remains to be seen, but the last three matches suggest the former will be the dominant version. Even if Suarez or Gerrard or Lucas or Borini or Allen or whomever is missing, that will almost certainly remain the preferred formation. Liverpool will have to find a way to plug those holes if key players are missing, because the pattern of play will likely remain the same. On the whole, Liverpool should be able to compensate if one or even two of those players are absent, as long as it's not for an extended spell. Any more than that, however…

Miscellaneous Thoughts, Comments, Concerns…
• Whither Fortress Anfield? If we're starting from square one, the first task is improving Liverpool's home form. Liverpool's Anfield winning percentage last season was an abhorrent 32%. Six wins, nine draws, and four losses. A possible 57 points and Liverpool earned just 27, an average of 1.42 points-per-game. The last time Liverpool failed to win less than half of its league matches at Anfield? 2002-03. Prior to that? 1969-1970. Despite the multiple, egregious failings in 2009-10 and 2010-11, Liverpool still won 68% and 63% of its home matches. Hopefully the new red nets portend a better future. It can't get much worse.

• We always complain about the difficulty of the first few fixtures and the necessity of a strong start to begin the campaign on the right foot. But it's exceptionally true this season. Liverpool will face last season's top three within the first five games, albeit at home, with trips to West Brom – against Liverpool's previous assistant manager – and Sunderland – where Liverpool have lost in two of the last three seasons – rounding out the bunch. Incidentally, Sunderland away was the last opening day fixture which Liverpool won, way back in August 2008. Since then, Liverpool have lost, drawn, and drawn its first league match.

The Europa League will also impact those league fixtures. Matches against Manchester City and Arsenal will take place three days after the two legs against Hearts; neither City nor Arsenal will have Champions League matches that week. If Liverpool qualify for the group stage, they'll play United (H), Stoke (H), Everton (A), Chelsea (A), Swansea (A), and West Ham (A) after each of the six group matches. Liverpool's schedule will be far more compressed this season – matches will come fast and furious, on the dreaded Thursday/Sunday schedule more often than not – and it's still more than debatable whether Liverpool has the squad to cope.

• And whether or not Liverpool has the squad to cope with the amount of matches, the club will also remain fairly reliant on Suarez and Gerrard. That's not to downplay the importance of, say, Lucas – especially Lucas, which last season painfully proved – or Agger or Reina, but only those two lightning rods can grab the game by its cliched 'scruff of the neck,' evidenced by the dramatic difference in the home and away legs against Gomel. The two started together in just nine league matches last season, and Gerrard played as a deeper 4-4-2 midfielder in most of them; it should be a much different story if he remains in a more attacking role. Liverpool should be a more cohesive team this season, one of the hallmarks of Rodgers' system, but its fortunes will most likely stay dependent on Gerrard and Suarez's successes. The two combined for 34% of Liverpool Premiership goals last season, 33% of the goals in all competitions. Even if Liverpool gets better production from the supporting cast – and honestly, there's seemingly nowhere to go but up in that category – as those two go, so goes Liverpool. Plus, Lucas. Always Lucas.

• Sometimes, it's better to be lucky than good. And Liverpool had less than zero luck last season. The woodwork, the missed penalties, Suarez's suspension, Lucas injured for two-thirds of the season. If Liverpool can convert more clear-cut chances, if Liverpool can keep key players fit and available, then Liverpool will be better. If Liverpool are "luckier" than average, whatever your definition of luck, then Liverpool could be really good. Those are obviously fairly big ifs. Honestly, all I'm asking for is regression – or, more aptly, progression – to the mean.


The usual mantra of "just be better," that all that's required is evolution from the previous season, won't suffice this year. Liverpool should better last season's return, at least in the league, just by showing up. There seems little way that Liverpool could hit the woodwork 33 times or miss five penalties. Liverpool cannot possibly draw 150% more home games than they win.

However, I'm sick of hearing about the importance of fourth, the importance of the Champions League. I imagine you're sick of hearing it too. Of course that's a goal, but it's not an expectation. It can't be an expectation when Liverpool haven't come close to achieving it in the last two seasons.

Still, the core of Suarez, Gerrard, Lucas, Reina, Skrtel, and Johnson (and Agger!) rivals almost any other club at those positions. Borini and Allen are valuable additions, Henderson, Shelvey, and Sterling could well be stars of the future. Once Liverpool's best players became involved, Liverpool looked incredibly promising against both Gomel and Leverkusen. While that's not saying much at this very, very early stage, it's cause for optimism.

And after the last few years, we could certainly do with some optimism.

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Tradition dictates that I restart the OYB fantasy league, after a couple of people asked about it and I got a handful of replies on Twitter. There are almost assuredly no prizes unless advertisers send me free stuff (ps: send me free stuff), and I will probably stop remembering to update my team around November, but dammit, tradition is tradition.

I use the official Premier League game. Create a team, then click "join a league." The entry code for the OYB League is 853013-274016. I'm pretty sure if you were in the league last year and create a team, you'll automatically be re-entered.