1:00pm ET, live in the US on FSC
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 1-1 Hearts (h), 1-0 Hearts (a); 3-0 Gomel (h), 1-0 Gomel (a)
Young Boys: 0-2 Midtjylland (h), 3-0 Midtjylland (a); 3-0 Kalmar (h), 0-1 Kalmar (a); 0-1 Zimbru (a), 1-0 Zimbru (h)
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Sunderland (a); 0-2 Arsenal (h); 1-1 Hearts (h)
Young Boys: 5-1 Wettswil-Bonstetten (a); 2-1 Lucerne (a); 0-2 Midtjylland (h)
Goalscorers (Europa League):
Liverpool: Borini, Downing, Gerrard, Johnson, Suarez 1
Young Boys: Bobadilla 2; Costanzo, Farnerud, Frey, Mayuka, Raimondi 1
Referee: Michael Koukoulakis (GRE)
Guess at a line-up
Jones
Flanagan Coates Carragher Enrique
Henderson Şahin
Downing Suso Assaidi
Morgan
Simply put, most who'll be involved on Sunday against Manchester United should not be involved tomorrow.
Which appears to be the case, according to the Liverpool Echo. Gerrard, Suarez, Johnson, Kelly, Skrtel, Agger, Allen, and Reina are all staying in Liverpool, with Pacheco, Suso, Yesil, Morgan, Wisdom, Coady, Flanagan and Robinson in the traveling party, if not the squad.
However, unmentioned are at least two first-team players who should play, even if they're scheduled to start against United on Sunday. Both Enrique and Şahin need match fitness, Enrique to recover from his long-standing knee problem, Şahin to get back in the habit of playinf regularly and adjust to his role in the Liverpool system. Both could feature against United if they play well tomorrow.
We could also see Borini, Downing, Shelvey, and Sterling. I truly hope Sterling will remain planted firmly on the bench, for all the burn-out reasons we've mentioned over and over. Shelvey's in a similar situation, ideally rested, which would give either Suso or Pacheco a chance in the attacking midfield role. But Downing's likely to start on the right, while Borini could do with further match practice as well. Opening day against West Brom was the only league match where the Italian lasted the full 90 minutes; he only played 54 and 64 minutes in the last two fixtures, notably misfiring in both – although his efforts against Sunderland suggest he's getting closer to finding form. As much as Liverpool need to bring more young players through due to the lack of squad depth, I'd still rather Borini start instead of Adam Morgan or Samed Yesil. Rodgers' highlighted Yesil, saying "Yesil will certainly be fast-tracked. He will be involved in the Europa League game." Whether that involvement means he'll play or just that he'll be involved in the squad remains to be seen; if Borini doesn't start, Morgan seems more likely because he's started a senior match before.
With Skrtel and Agger missing, Carragher and Coates appear definite starters in central defense. Flanagan's also fairly certain with both Kelly and Johnson back on Merseyside. Finally, we should finally seem Oussama Assaidi make his debut, fit from the injury that has kept him out until now and available for the Europa League group stage after sitting out qualifying. More than any other, I've high hopes for the Moroccan; Liverpool badly need another wide forward/winger to step up so Liverpool aren't wholly reliant on the likes of Sterling and Borini.
BSC Young Boys are eight matches in the Swiss Super League season, which began in mid-July, winning three, drawing three, and losing two, currently fifth out of ten teams. They haven't finished lower than third since 2006-07.
Liverpool assistant manager Colin Pascoe says Young Boys play 4-3-3, while Football-Lineups.com has Young Boys using a 4-1-4-1 in the last 10 fixtures. The vagaries of modern formation notation.
The starting XI in its last league match, on September 2 at Lucerne, was Wölfli; Zverotic, Nef, Veskovac, Lecjaks; Spycher; Gonzalez, Costanzo, Farnerud, Scheneuwly; Bobadilla. Argentinean Raul Bobadilla is Young Boys' top scorer in both league and Europa League qualifying, joining the club in the January transfer window. Christoph Spycher's been around forever, a Swiss international from 2003-2010, able to play at full-back or as a defensive midfielder. England fans may remember defender Elsad Zverotic, who scored in last year's final Euro 2012 qualifier against Montenegro, a 2-2 draw (that was where Rooney kicked a Montenegrin player, getting himself suspended for the first two matches of the Euros). Young Boys recently sold the player I'm most familiar with – Emmanuel Mayuka, star of Zambia's African Cup of Nations win last year – to Southampton. Honestly, the only time I've seen the club play was when they faced Tottenham in Champions League qualifying in August 2010; chances are only 4 or 5 players who played then are likely to feature: Wölfli, Spycher, Constanzo, Schneuwly, and Swiss-English right-back Scott Sutter (who'll probably be kept out of the side by Zverotic). Yes. I realize this is even less helpful than my "scouting reports" for Gomel or Hearts. Such are the dangers of Europa League opposition.
Regardless of Liverpool's current struggles, this will be one of BSC Young Boys' biggest matches of the season, if not the biggest. Unlike in the league – for the last two or three years now – Liverpool's name still inspires awe in European competition. Awe, but not terror, evident in the matches against Gomel and Hearts, where both looked to get at Liverpool, especially in the home legs. Liverpool are a vulnerable giant, and – no slight intended – players can make a name for themselves by putting another Lilliputian arrow in Gulliver's back. No matter the personnel used, this competition is the first chance for the club to begin rebuilding its reputation on the continental stage. And developing the young players who'll add depth to Liverpool's shallow squad is more important.
Showing posts with label Match Preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Match Preview. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Friday, September 14, 2012
Liverpool at Sunderland 09.15.12
12:30pm ET, live in the US on FSC
Last four head-to-head:
0-1 Sunderland (a) 03.10.12
1-1 (h) 08.13.11
2-0 Liverpool (a) 03.28.11
2-2 (h) 09.25.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-2 Arsenal (h); 1-1 Hearts (h); 2-2 City (h)
Sunderland: 2-2 Swansea (a); 2-0 Morecambe (h); 0-0 Arsenal (a)
Referee: Martin Atkinson
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Allen Şahin
Borini Gerrard Sterling
Suarez
"The worst start to a league campaign in fifty years." "The last time Liverpool failed to win at least one of its first four league fixtures was 1911-12." "Liverpool currently have the worst conversion rate and lowest shooting accuracy in the league." "Liverpool have kept just two clean sheets in its last 17 league matches."
So, how were your two weeks without Premier League football?
I imagine Brendan Rodgers' were less than enjoyable. All those issues, still adjusting to his new job and his understrength squad, and almost everyone goes away for international duties.
Liverpool's small squad means the line-up should be fairly predictable. Şahin or Shelvey, will Enrique finally be fit? Otherwise, basically the same as against Arsenal, the same as against Manchester City.
Nuri Şahin struggled against Arsenal, both in his role in Rodgers' system and in general match fitness. Despite conceding a second soon after, Liverpool looked better when Shelvey entered the fray two weeks ago, and better when Shelvey had to replace Lucas early against Manchester City. Şahin came on as a substitute in both of Turkey's international matches, for 10 minutes against Estonia and for 30 minutes against the Netherlands, so his match fitness should be improving, but he's had little time to adjust to Liverpool's style of play and his necessary movement in relation to Allen, Gerrard, and the rest of the Liverpool team. Which leads me to think that Shelvey's a more likely starter tomorrow. Then I remember Rodgers' willingness to throw Şahin in the deep end last time out, and reckon that'll probably be the case again tomorrow.
If Enrique's absent again, chances are Downing will have to play left back, as Martin Kelly is also doubtful after picking up an injury in Monday's u21 match. Whether it's Enrique, Downing, or Johnson, they'll have to cope with Adam Johnson's pace – if the winger's fit after pulling out of the England squad with a thigh injury – or Seb Larsson's guile, a dangerous player in his own right but less of a threat when running at defenders. Either will be tough opposition.
As usual, you know what you get with a Martin O'Neill side. Wingers attacking, defenders defending, a contentious, physical midfield, and a target man up front. Steven Fletcher – that target man – is Sunderland's club record signing, scoring twice in five minutes on his debut against Swansea. Fletcher's good in the air, scoring more than half his goals via headers, and (unlike Liverpool) a clinical finisher; only Frank Lampard had a better clear-cut chance conversion rate last season. Left winger James McClean and attacking midfielder Stephane Sessegnon will also be threats.
Sunderland had to use two midfielders as fullbacks against Swansea, with Gardner at right back and Colback on the left. Gardner looks likely to continue in this role due to Phil Bardsley's absence, but on-loan Danny Rose could make his debut on the left. Assuming Johnson's absent, Cattermole's fit (he had to go off in the first half against Swansea because of a dead leg), and Rose will debut, I'd expect their line-up to be Mignolet; Gardner, O'Shea, Cuellar, Rose; Cattermole, Colback; Larsson, Sessegnon, McClean; Fletcher.
Like Liverpool, Sunderland are still winless, but have drawn twice rather than Liverpool's two losses and a draw. Both of their draws were heartening rather than disconcerting: defending excellently against Arsenal (who, I doubt I need remind, ran over Liverpool last time out) then holding a surprising Swansea side which had won its two previous matches 5-0 and 3-0. Tomorrow will be the Mackems' first home match of the season, as the fixture with Reading was postponed due to a water-logged pitch.
The litany of concerns that started this preview demonstrate the amount of pressure Liverpool will be under tomorrow, both external and internal. I have no idea whether this week's Hillsborough revelations will exacerbate that pressure or invigorate the players, but it will be an emotional day regardless. One can only hope it'll be a rewarding one as well.
Last four head-to-head:
0-1 Sunderland (a) 03.10.12
1-1 (h) 08.13.11
2-0 Liverpool (a) 03.28.11
2-2 (h) 09.25.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-2 Arsenal (h); 1-1 Hearts (h); 2-2 City (h)
Sunderland: 2-2 Swansea (a); 2-0 Morecambe (h); 0-0 Arsenal (a)
Referee: Martin Atkinson
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Allen Şahin
Borini Gerrard Sterling
Suarez
"The worst start to a league campaign in fifty years." "The last time Liverpool failed to win at least one of its first four league fixtures was 1911-12." "Liverpool currently have the worst conversion rate and lowest shooting accuracy in the league." "Liverpool have kept just two clean sheets in its last 17 league matches."
So, how were your two weeks without Premier League football?
I imagine Brendan Rodgers' were less than enjoyable. All those issues, still adjusting to his new job and his understrength squad, and almost everyone goes away for international duties.
Liverpool's small squad means the line-up should be fairly predictable. Şahin or Shelvey, will Enrique finally be fit? Otherwise, basically the same as against Arsenal, the same as against Manchester City.
Nuri Şahin struggled against Arsenal, both in his role in Rodgers' system and in general match fitness. Despite conceding a second soon after, Liverpool looked better when Shelvey entered the fray two weeks ago, and better when Shelvey had to replace Lucas early against Manchester City. Şahin came on as a substitute in both of Turkey's international matches, for 10 minutes against Estonia and for 30 minutes against the Netherlands, so his match fitness should be improving, but he's had little time to adjust to Liverpool's style of play and his necessary movement in relation to Allen, Gerrard, and the rest of the Liverpool team. Which leads me to think that Shelvey's a more likely starter tomorrow. Then I remember Rodgers' willingness to throw Şahin in the deep end last time out, and reckon that'll probably be the case again tomorrow.
If Enrique's absent again, chances are Downing will have to play left back, as Martin Kelly is also doubtful after picking up an injury in Monday's u21 match. Whether it's Enrique, Downing, or Johnson, they'll have to cope with Adam Johnson's pace – if the winger's fit after pulling out of the England squad with a thigh injury – or Seb Larsson's guile, a dangerous player in his own right but less of a threat when running at defenders. Either will be tough opposition.
As usual, you know what you get with a Martin O'Neill side. Wingers attacking, defenders defending, a contentious, physical midfield, and a target man up front. Steven Fletcher – that target man – is Sunderland's club record signing, scoring twice in five minutes on his debut against Swansea. Fletcher's good in the air, scoring more than half his goals via headers, and (unlike Liverpool) a clinical finisher; only Frank Lampard had a better clear-cut chance conversion rate last season. Left winger James McClean and attacking midfielder Stephane Sessegnon will also be threats.
Sunderland had to use two midfielders as fullbacks against Swansea, with Gardner at right back and Colback on the left. Gardner looks likely to continue in this role due to Phil Bardsley's absence, but on-loan Danny Rose could make his debut on the left. Assuming Johnson's absent, Cattermole's fit (he had to go off in the first half against Swansea because of a dead leg), and Rose will debut, I'd expect their line-up to be Mignolet; Gardner, O'Shea, Cuellar, Rose; Cattermole, Colback; Larsson, Sessegnon, McClean; Fletcher.
Like Liverpool, Sunderland are still winless, but have drawn twice rather than Liverpool's two losses and a draw. Both of their draws were heartening rather than disconcerting: defending excellently against Arsenal (who, I doubt I need remind, ran over Liverpool last time out) then holding a surprising Swansea side which had won its two previous matches 5-0 and 3-0. Tomorrow will be the Mackems' first home match of the season, as the fixture with Reading was postponed due to a water-logged pitch.
The litany of concerns that started this preview demonstrate the amount of pressure Liverpool will be under tomorrow, both external and internal. I have no idea whether this week's Hillsborough revelations will exacerbate that pressure or invigorate the players, but it will be an emotional day regardless. One can only hope it'll be a rewarding one as well.
Saturday, September 1, 2012
Liverpool v Arsenal 09.02.12
8:30am ET, live in the US on FSC
Last four head-to-head:
1-2 Arsenal (h) 03.03.12
2-0 Liverpool (a) 08.20.11
1-1 (a) 04.17.11
1-1 (h) 08.15.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Hearts (h); 2-2 City (h); 1-0 Hearts (a)
Arsenal: 0-0 Stoke (a); 0-0 Sunderland (h)
Referee: Howard Webb
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Skrtel Agger Johnson
Allen Şahin
Borini Gerrard Sterling
Suarez
As long as Şahin's ready, and I can't see why he wouldn't be, the line-up seems to write itself. We all know Liverpool's strongest XI, after all. It's when forced to contemplate squad depth that everyone rightfully gets all shouty.
The same front six as against City except for Şahin replacing Lucas/Shelvey. The same back five as against City but with Agger returning from suspension, and maybe Enrique if he's somehow fully fit.
Enrique sounded doubtful about his availability in today's interview on the official site. Downing did adequately against Hearts, but defending against Arsenal is a different test, especially when he'd be facing Walcott, Gervinho, or Oxlade-Chamberlain. Liverpool play far, far better when Johnson's on the right, but still defend adequately when he's on the left, especially since Kelly's improved in the last three matches compared to his performance against West Brom.
With Sterling left out of the starting lineup against Hearts, it seems likely he'll start again tomorrow. Liverpool would probably best be served by Sterling on the left and Borini on the right, as against City, in contrast to how the two played as substitutes on Thursday. Both have struggled on the right, both right-footed and fairly reliant on cutting inside from the flanks, but Borini seems more likely to be able to alter his game, while Sterling's pace against 20-year-old right back Carl Jenkinson is an enticing prospect.
Arsenal have had a strange but not strange start to the season. Two 0-0 draws against Sunderland and Stoke certainly weren't the expected results – the only Premiership side to have failed to score – but both were thoroughly explainable. Both opponents set up for the draw, compact and packed in their own halves. Arsenal were obviously going to struggle for goals after losing van Persie, and played into Sunderland's hands in the opening match by starting a front three of Podolski, Gervinho, and Walcott – three quick forwards, none an out-and-out striker, who all thrive on quick, intricate movement and finding space. Despite starting Giroud, Arsenal were even blunter at Stoke, but more than a few sides have traveled to the Britannia and come away with nothing. Arsenal took a combined 40 shots against Sunderland and Stoke. Just five were on target. This will sound vaguely familiar to Liverpool fans.
Arsenal should find a bit more space tomorrow, especially with the match at Anfield. Unlike in the last two fixtures, Arsenal should be able quickly counter – something they thrive on – when winning the ball off of Liverpool, who will look to control possession as always under Rodgers. There will be space to run into behind Liverpool's high back line if Liverpool aren't careful, if the offside trap fails, if Liverpool make the kind of mistakes we've seen against City and West Brom. Imagine a quicker, more technically competent version of West Brom's first penalty decision on the opening day. That's what's Arsenal are perpetually capable of if given the chance. Much will depend on how well Liverpool's midfield controls the game, especially contingent on Gerrard's discipline, as his giveaways have led to opposition opportunities in both of Liverpool's league matches. Both Cazorla and Arteta are intelligent, patient midfielders, and Arsenal is typically excellent at the style of play Rodgers wants to encourage: keeping possession with quick passes and hunting in packs to close down options. Cazorla will be the playmaker, the conductor, and Joe Allen will have to be at the peak of his powers to keep him under wraps.
Szczesny will be a late decision, missing the last match with a rib injury, while Koscielny should make his first start of the season after a calf strain. Rosicky, Sagna, Frimpong, and Wilshere are all medium-to-long-term absentees; for approximately the 38th season in a row, Arsenal cannot catch a break from injuries. I expect their XI will be very similar to last week's, but with Szczesny and Koscielny in defense, and possibly Walcott or Oxlade-Chamberlain instead of Gervinho. Something close to Szczesny; Jenkinson Koscielny Vermaelen Gibbs; Arteta Diaby; Walcott Cazorla Podolski; Giroud.
Liverpool's starting XI in this fixture last season was Reina; Kelly Carragher Skrtel Enrique; Adam Spearing; Henderson Kuyt Downing; Suarez. And the only reason Arsenal won 2-1 rather than losing 0-1 was van Persie, beating Carragher twice, thumping two outstanding goals. The above guessed XI is far, far better than the one Liverpool deployed last March, while Arsenal's will be missing that goalscoring talisman.
While Liverpool have become known for raising its game against better opposition, Liverpool also haven't beaten Arsenal at Anfield since 2008, the 4-2 Champions League quarterfinal. It's been since 2007 in the league, Crouch's perfect hat-trick guiding Liverpool to a 4-1 win. Since then, four matches: two draws and two losses.
Yes, this is only the third game of the campaign, but both sides will be desperate not to fall further behind the league's best. Both sides' biggest issue is goal-scoring, both sides are coming to terms with a new playing style: Liverpool because of the new manager, Arsenal because of the summer's personnel overhaul. Arsenal have strength in depth but no superstar, Liverpool have a very good first XI but no depth.
No matter how early it is in the season, this match will tell us an awful lot about both sides, as well as their future for the next few months.
Last four head-to-head:
1-2 Arsenal (h) 03.03.12
2-0 Liverpool (a) 08.20.11
1-1 (a) 04.17.11
1-1 (h) 08.15.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Hearts (h); 2-2 City (h); 1-0 Hearts (a)
Arsenal: 0-0 Stoke (a); 0-0 Sunderland (h)
Referee: Howard Webb
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Skrtel Agger Johnson
Allen Şahin
Borini Gerrard Sterling
Suarez
As long as Şahin's ready, and I can't see why he wouldn't be, the line-up seems to write itself. We all know Liverpool's strongest XI, after all. It's when forced to contemplate squad depth that everyone rightfully gets all shouty.
The same front six as against City except for Şahin replacing Lucas/Shelvey. The same back five as against City but with Agger returning from suspension, and maybe Enrique if he's somehow fully fit.
Enrique sounded doubtful about his availability in today's interview on the official site. Downing did adequately against Hearts, but defending against Arsenal is a different test, especially when he'd be facing Walcott, Gervinho, or Oxlade-Chamberlain. Liverpool play far, far better when Johnson's on the right, but still defend adequately when he's on the left, especially since Kelly's improved in the last three matches compared to his performance against West Brom.
With Sterling left out of the starting lineup against Hearts, it seems likely he'll start again tomorrow. Liverpool would probably best be served by Sterling on the left and Borini on the right, as against City, in contrast to how the two played as substitutes on Thursday. Both have struggled on the right, both right-footed and fairly reliant on cutting inside from the flanks, but Borini seems more likely to be able to alter his game, while Sterling's pace against 20-year-old right back Carl Jenkinson is an enticing prospect.
Arsenal have had a strange but not strange start to the season. Two 0-0 draws against Sunderland and Stoke certainly weren't the expected results – the only Premiership side to have failed to score – but both were thoroughly explainable. Both opponents set up for the draw, compact and packed in their own halves. Arsenal were obviously going to struggle for goals after losing van Persie, and played into Sunderland's hands in the opening match by starting a front three of Podolski, Gervinho, and Walcott – three quick forwards, none an out-and-out striker, who all thrive on quick, intricate movement and finding space. Despite starting Giroud, Arsenal were even blunter at Stoke, but more than a few sides have traveled to the Britannia and come away with nothing. Arsenal took a combined 40 shots against Sunderland and Stoke. Just five were on target. This will sound vaguely familiar to Liverpool fans.
Arsenal should find a bit more space tomorrow, especially with the match at Anfield. Unlike in the last two fixtures, Arsenal should be able quickly counter – something they thrive on – when winning the ball off of Liverpool, who will look to control possession as always under Rodgers. There will be space to run into behind Liverpool's high back line if Liverpool aren't careful, if the offside trap fails, if Liverpool make the kind of mistakes we've seen against City and West Brom. Imagine a quicker, more technically competent version of West Brom's first penalty decision on the opening day. That's what's Arsenal are perpetually capable of if given the chance. Much will depend on how well Liverpool's midfield controls the game, especially contingent on Gerrard's discipline, as his giveaways have led to opposition opportunities in both of Liverpool's league matches. Both Cazorla and Arteta are intelligent, patient midfielders, and Arsenal is typically excellent at the style of play Rodgers wants to encourage: keeping possession with quick passes and hunting in packs to close down options. Cazorla will be the playmaker, the conductor, and Joe Allen will have to be at the peak of his powers to keep him under wraps.
Szczesny will be a late decision, missing the last match with a rib injury, while Koscielny should make his first start of the season after a calf strain. Rosicky, Sagna, Frimpong, and Wilshere are all medium-to-long-term absentees; for approximately the 38th season in a row, Arsenal cannot catch a break from injuries. I expect their XI will be very similar to last week's, but with Szczesny and Koscielny in defense, and possibly Walcott or Oxlade-Chamberlain instead of Gervinho. Something close to Szczesny; Jenkinson Koscielny Vermaelen Gibbs; Arteta Diaby; Walcott Cazorla Podolski; Giroud.
Liverpool's starting XI in this fixture last season was Reina; Kelly Carragher Skrtel Enrique; Adam Spearing; Henderson Kuyt Downing; Suarez. And the only reason Arsenal won 2-1 rather than losing 0-1 was van Persie, beating Carragher twice, thumping two outstanding goals. The above guessed XI is far, far better than the one Liverpool deployed last March, while Arsenal's will be missing that goalscoring talisman.
While Liverpool have become known for raising its game against better opposition, Liverpool also haven't beaten Arsenal at Anfield since 2008, the 4-2 Champions League quarterfinal. It's been since 2007 in the league, Crouch's perfect hat-trick guiding Liverpool to a 4-1 win. Since then, four matches: two draws and two losses.
Yes, this is only the third game of the campaign, but both sides will be desperate not to fall further behind the league's best. Both sides' biggest issue is goal-scoring, both sides are coming to terms with a new playing style: Liverpool because of the new manager, Arsenal because of the summer's personnel overhaul. Arsenal have strength in depth but no superstar, Liverpool have a very good first XI but no depth.
No matter how early it is in the season, this match will tell us an awful lot about both sides, as well as their future for the next few months.
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Liverpool v Hearts 08.30.12
Liverpool lead 1-0 on aggregate
3:05pm ET, live in the US on FSC
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 3-0 Gomel (h), 1-0 Gomel (a)
Hearts: n/a
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 City (h); 1-0 Hearts (a); 0-3 West Brom (a)
Hearts: 0-0 Aberdeen (a); 0-1 Liverpool (h); 2-2 Inverness CT (h)
Goalscorers (Europa League):
Liverpool: Borini, Downing, Gerrard, Johnson 1
Hearts: n/a
Referee: Vladislav Bezborodov (RUS)
Guess at a line-up
Reina
Kelly Coates Carragher Enrique
Henderson Adam
Downing Shelvey Cole
Suarez
Like last week, expect certain key players to be left out with Arsenal due at Anfield on Sunday. But like against Gomel, Liverpool will probably start a stronger line-up in the home leg, trying to both protect and extend a narrow 1-0 advantage from the previous match.
As almost always, Gerrard seems the most likely to be rested: age, injury history, importance to the team, etc. With Şahin (as well as Assaidi) ineligible tomorrow, Allen might be more likely to play, but he's another that could be protected for the Arsenal match, available as a substitute as in the last leg, especially since he's now that much more important because Lucas will miss the next 2-3 months due to the thigh tear he suffered on Sunday.
A quick, unavoidable aside on Lucas' injury. As much as I love a good scapegoat, this one isn't on the medical staff. It was criminal to allow him to keep playing against Chelsea in the Carling Cup last year. It was less criminal to start him against Manchester City after feeling a twinge in his thigh when warming up. There's more leeway with a muscular injury, because it might well have just been a cramp or a strain, run off easily enough. When it didn't go away, he was immediately substituted. Three minutes of the match probably wasn't the difference between a strain and a tear; I'm no doctor, but I doubt that brief action made the tear much worse. He made no high impact challenges, didn't jump for any headers. He tried to run it off, he couldn't run it off, he came out. Sure, hindsight makes it easy to demand that he shouldn't have started, that he needed to be handled with kid gloves after coming back from such a serious injury sooner than expected. I suspect he wanted to try to play, Rodgers agreed, and the fact that Liverpool were facing City made both more willing to give it a go.
So it sucks, and I'm angry, and you're angry. Man plans and God laughs. If you want to blame anyone, blame Lucas for pushing for too much too soon or even blame Rodgers, because it was his final decision. But also remember that it's nowhere near the death knell that was last season's injury because of Rodgers' planning. Liverpool are in a far better position to cope after signing Joe Allen and securing Şahin on loan. So much for questioning whether Şahin was a superfluous acquisition.
Anyway. I'd hope this doesn't affect the possible sale of Spearing, but it does mean that Henderson and Adam are more likely to see playing time in midfield, especially in the Europa League. Shelvey has played an awful lot lately, more than expected, but I still suspect he'll start tomorrow given the paucity of options. Chances are he won't start on Sunday with Şahin available, and if someone's going to be over-extended, I'd rather him than Gerrard.
Similar goes for Sterling. After starting the last two matches, a third would probably mean he won't be in the XI against Arsenal. I think I'd rather him in the XI against Arsenal. Liverpool's options on the flank are Downing, Borini, Sterling, Cole, Henderson, Shelvey, and maybe Suarez, if Carroll somehow starts up front. I haven't seen anything, on the pitch or in the media, which makes me think Carroll's likely to start. So, Suarez, Carroll, or Morgan up front; Sterling, Borini, or Cole on the left; Downing, Borini, Cole, Henderson, or Shelvey on the right. Guessing which combination Rodgers will choose on form and fitness with Arsenal on Sunday is truly nothing more than a slightly educated guess.
Downing as left-back has become a hot topic since the last leg, but two factors make me doubt whether we'll see it tomorrow. First and foremost, after 25 minutes against City, Enrique needs match fitness before Arsenal. Second, as mentioned above, Liverpool still have few options for the flanks, especially on the right. Borini wasn't especially effective on that side against City, and Sterling is also far better on the left. Joe Cole's probably fit by now, but he's still Joe Cole, and he's also more likely to play on the left, as he did for nine minutes against Gomel. Henderson started there in the last leg, sometimes switching with Shelvey, but I think both will be needed in the middle if both Gerrard and Allen are rested. Finally, while Downing may well be a viable option in defense, and it's always handy to have more options, I'd still prefer Jack Robinson as Enrique's primary back-up.
Otherwise, I expect the second-choice back four: Kelly, who's improved with each match he's played this season, instead of Johnson; Carragher and Coates in place of Skrtel and Agger, with the Dane eligible to face Arsenal after his one-match ban.
Hearts slightly changed its system in last weekend's scoreless draw at Aberdeen, similar to how they readjusted after Liverpool scored its opener a week ago. With Templeton suspended for a second SPL match, Driver played in the hole behind Sutton, while Paterson – who started as the holding midfielder in the first leg against Liverpool – was on the right of midfield. Which was where he was nearly scoring in the dying seconds last Thursday, a shot that Reina deftly parried aside after Paterson out-muscled Downing.
While 4-1-4-1 had been Hearts' preferred formation until Sunday's match, and Templeton will be available, we may see the above 4-4-1-1 repeated in tomorrow's match. Down a goal, Hearts may prefer an extra attacking midfielder to an extra defensive midfielder. Or, just as likely, Hearts could sit deeper in the 4-1-4-1 formation, playing for the counter-attack, hoping to stifle Liverpool then catch them unaware. So, you know, one or the other. I realize this helps little. Sorry.
The one-goal lead is a narrow advantage, and Liverpool will come out looking for more, as in the last round. Liverpool have played far better at Anfield, whether against Gomel, Leverkusen or City, compared to performances at Gomel, West Brom or Hearts. While the Europa League remains a second-tier competition, advancement to the group stage remains the bare minimum expectation, and today's line-up and tactics should reflect that.
3:05pm ET, live in the US on FSC
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 3-0 Gomel (h), 1-0 Gomel (a)
Hearts: n/a
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-2 City (h); 1-0 Hearts (a); 0-3 West Brom (a)
Hearts: 0-0 Aberdeen (a); 0-1 Liverpool (h); 2-2 Inverness CT (h)
Goalscorers (Europa League):
Liverpool: Borini, Downing, Gerrard, Johnson 1
Hearts: n/a
Referee: Vladislav Bezborodov (RUS)
Guess at a line-up
Reina
Kelly Coates Carragher Enrique
Henderson Adam
Downing Shelvey Cole
Suarez
Like last week, expect certain key players to be left out with Arsenal due at Anfield on Sunday. But like against Gomel, Liverpool will probably start a stronger line-up in the home leg, trying to both protect and extend a narrow 1-0 advantage from the previous match.
As almost always, Gerrard seems the most likely to be rested: age, injury history, importance to the team, etc. With Şahin (as well as Assaidi) ineligible tomorrow, Allen might be more likely to play, but he's another that could be protected for the Arsenal match, available as a substitute as in the last leg, especially since he's now that much more important because Lucas will miss the next 2-3 months due to the thigh tear he suffered on Sunday.
A quick, unavoidable aside on Lucas' injury. As much as I love a good scapegoat, this one isn't on the medical staff. It was criminal to allow him to keep playing against Chelsea in the Carling Cup last year. It was less criminal to start him against Manchester City after feeling a twinge in his thigh when warming up. There's more leeway with a muscular injury, because it might well have just been a cramp or a strain, run off easily enough. When it didn't go away, he was immediately substituted. Three minutes of the match probably wasn't the difference between a strain and a tear; I'm no doctor, but I doubt that brief action made the tear much worse. He made no high impact challenges, didn't jump for any headers. He tried to run it off, he couldn't run it off, he came out. Sure, hindsight makes it easy to demand that he shouldn't have started, that he needed to be handled with kid gloves after coming back from such a serious injury sooner than expected. I suspect he wanted to try to play, Rodgers agreed, and the fact that Liverpool were facing City made both more willing to give it a go.
So it sucks, and I'm angry, and you're angry. Man plans and God laughs. If you want to blame anyone, blame Lucas for pushing for too much too soon or even blame Rodgers, because it was his final decision. But also remember that it's nowhere near the death knell that was last season's injury because of Rodgers' planning. Liverpool are in a far better position to cope after signing Joe Allen and securing Şahin on loan. So much for questioning whether Şahin was a superfluous acquisition.
Anyway. I'd hope this doesn't affect the possible sale of Spearing, but it does mean that Henderson and Adam are more likely to see playing time in midfield, especially in the Europa League. Shelvey has played an awful lot lately, more than expected, but I still suspect he'll start tomorrow given the paucity of options. Chances are he won't start on Sunday with Şahin available, and if someone's going to be over-extended, I'd rather him than Gerrard.
Similar goes for Sterling. After starting the last two matches, a third would probably mean he won't be in the XI against Arsenal. I think I'd rather him in the XI against Arsenal. Liverpool's options on the flank are Downing, Borini, Sterling, Cole, Henderson, Shelvey, and maybe Suarez, if Carroll somehow starts up front. I haven't seen anything, on the pitch or in the media, which makes me think Carroll's likely to start. So, Suarez, Carroll, or Morgan up front; Sterling, Borini, or Cole on the left; Downing, Borini, Cole, Henderson, or Shelvey on the right. Guessing which combination Rodgers will choose on form and fitness with Arsenal on Sunday is truly nothing more than a slightly educated guess.
Downing as left-back has become a hot topic since the last leg, but two factors make me doubt whether we'll see it tomorrow. First and foremost, after 25 minutes against City, Enrique needs match fitness before Arsenal. Second, as mentioned above, Liverpool still have few options for the flanks, especially on the right. Borini wasn't especially effective on that side against City, and Sterling is also far better on the left. Joe Cole's probably fit by now, but he's still Joe Cole, and he's also more likely to play on the left, as he did for nine minutes against Gomel. Henderson started there in the last leg, sometimes switching with Shelvey, but I think both will be needed in the middle if both Gerrard and Allen are rested. Finally, while Downing may well be a viable option in defense, and it's always handy to have more options, I'd still prefer Jack Robinson as Enrique's primary back-up.
Otherwise, I expect the second-choice back four: Kelly, who's improved with each match he's played this season, instead of Johnson; Carragher and Coates in place of Skrtel and Agger, with the Dane eligible to face Arsenal after his one-match ban.
Hearts slightly changed its system in last weekend's scoreless draw at Aberdeen, similar to how they readjusted after Liverpool scored its opener a week ago. With Templeton suspended for a second SPL match, Driver played in the hole behind Sutton, while Paterson – who started as the holding midfielder in the first leg against Liverpool – was on the right of midfield. Which was where he was nearly scoring in the dying seconds last Thursday, a shot that Reina deftly parried aside after Paterson out-muscled Downing.
While 4-1-4-1 had been Hearts' preferred formation until Sunday's match, and Templeton will be available, we may see the above 4-4-1-1 repeated in tomorrow's match. Down a goal, Hearts may prefer an extra attacking midfielder to an extra defensive midfielder. Or, just as likely, Hearts could sit deeper in the 4-1-4-1 formation, playing for the counter-attack, hoping to stifle Liverpool then catch them unaware. So, you know, one or the other. I realize this helps little. Sorry.
The one-goal lead is a narrow advantage, and Liverpool will come out looking for more, as in the last round. Liverpool have played far better at Anfield, whether against Gomel, Leverkusen or City, compared to performances at Gomel, West Brom or Hearts. While the Europa League remains a second-tier competition, advancement to the group stage remains the bare minimum expectation, and today's line-up and tactics should reflect that.
Saturday, August 25, 2012
Liverpool v Manchester City 08.26.11
11am ET, live in the US on FSC
Last four head-to-head:
2-2 (h; Carling Cup) 01.25.12
1-0 Liverpool (a; Carling Cup) 01.11.12
0-3 City (a) 01.03.12
1-1 (h) 11.27.11
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Hearts (a); 0-3 West Brom (a); 3-0 Gomel (h)
City: 3-2 Southampton (h); 3-2 Chelsea (n; Community Shield)
Referee: Andre Marriner
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Coates Enrique
Lucas Allen
Downing Gerrard Borini
Suarez
Will it be Carragher or Coates who replaces the suspended Agger? Will Enrique be fit? Otherwise, the XI writes itself.
I may be seeing what I want to see in the entrails, but all signs point to Coates instead of Carragher. At 34, Carragher's not likely to play against both Hearts and City in four days. Rodgers had to have noticed how poorly Carragher coped with a high back line against West Brom, even if Liverpool were down to 10, with Lukaku embarrassing him twice, once to set up Morrison's missed sitter then eluding him to head in West Brom's third. And Coates, for all his youthful error-prone tendencies, is both quicker and taller, better equipped to cope either with Tevez's speed or Dzeko's aerial ability.
If Enrique is unavailable, I expect the same full-back pairing as against West Brom, with Kelly on the right and Johnson shifting over to the left. Johnson is far better on the right, especially going forward, and makes Liverpool far, far better when he's on the right, but he's still a capable defender on the left. None of West Brom's three goals came from his area of the pitch. And Liverpool's full-backs will be far more focused on defending against City than they were against West Brom.
Maybe there's a slight chance of three at the back – Kelly-Coates-Skrtel, with Johnson and Enrique or Downing as wing-backs – but that seems incredibly unlikely this early in Rodgers' tenure.
Otherwise, the front six should remain the same as last weel, all of them obvious choices at their positions. Suarez will continue to play as the central "striker" with Borini on the left, rather than vice versa, as I've seen suggested by a few. We'll also likely get our first glimpse of Oussama Assaidi, even if it's only a glimpse of him planted firmly on the bench. If any speedy winger is going to come on as a substitute, chances are it's Sterling after his performance against Hearts.
Manchester City remain the league favorites, remain the benchmark. They've scored three in both of their competitive fixtures this season, albeit conceding two in each. Agüero may be injured, but Tevez, Balotelli, and Dzeko remain available. Nasri was outstanding in both matches, scoring in each, assisting Tevez's opener against Southampton. More importantly, City had to overhaul a deficit in both matches, down 0-1 to Chelsea and 1-2 to Southampton. As cliché as it is, that's what champions do. Incidentally, Liverpool came back to win just four matches last season: the 2-1 Carling Cup win at Stoke, the 3-1 league win against Newcastle, and the 5-1 and 2-1 FA Cup wins against Oldham and Everton.
I'm curious to see how City deal with Agüero's absence. Dzeko replaced him against Southampton, switching from a 4-2-3-1 formation to a 4-2-2-2, but I don't expect that to be the case tomorrow. My suspicion is that Milner will come into the side, most likely on the right, with Silva moving to a more central position. But it's not as if the league champions lack for options. City also played three at the back in the Community Shield, as they did against Liverpool in the second leg of the Carling Cup semi-final last season, but I doubt that'll be the case tomorrow; the back four should be Zabaleta, Kompany, Lescott, and either Clichy or Kolarov.
With Gareth Barry still injured, either Rodwell or de Jong will partner Yaya Touré in midfield. Both are liabilities for different reasons, whether de Jong's savage indiscipline or Rodwell's mistakes – as we saw against Southampton. Of course, I also can't forget de Jong's unfathomable goal in the second leg of the Carling Cup semi-final, one of just two he's scored for the club. Lucas and Allen winning the midfield battle, as Lucas did in the 1-1 draw against City last season (one of many draws that Liverpool "deserved" to win) is Liverpool's best hope for winning the match.
This is the first chance to see if last season's "best" quality continues: Liverpool's ability to raise its game against the toughest opposition. Three of Liverpool's four matches against Manchester City were three of Liverpool's most impressive matches of the season: a 1-1 draw that was only a draw because of Hart's miraculous saves, a supremely solid 1-0 away win after taking an early lead, and a battling 2-2 draw where Liverpool twice came back from a goal down to advance to the Carling Cup final. We'll just forget the 0-3 demolishment at the Etihad.
And, hopefully, tomorrow's match will make us forget about last week's 0-3 embarrassment.
Last four head-to-head:
2-2 (h; Carling Cup) 01.25.12
1-0 Liverpool (a; Carling Cup) 01.11.12
0-3 City (a) 01.03.12
1-1 (h) 11.27.11
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Hearts (a); 0-3 West Brom (a); 3-0 Gomel (h)
City: 3-2 Southampton (h); 3-2 Chelsea (n; Community Shield)
Referee: Andre Marriner
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Coates Enrique
Lucas Allen
Downing Gerrard Borini
Suarez
Will it be Carragher or Coates who replaces the suspended Agger? Will Enrique be fit? Otherwise, the XI writes itself.
I may be seeing what I want to see in the entrails, but all signs point to Coates instead of Carragher. At 34, Carragher's not likely to play against both Hearts and City in four days. Rodgers had to have noticed how poorly Carragher coped with a high back line against West Brom, even if Liverpool were down to 10, with Lukaku embarrassing him twice, once to set up Morrison's missed sitter then eluding him to head in West Brom's third. And Coates, for all his youthful error-prone tendencies, is both quicker and taller, better equipped to cope either with Tevez's speed or Dzeko's aerial ability.
If Enrique is unavailable, I expect the same full-back pairing as against West Brom, with Kelly on the right and Johnson shifting over to the left. Johnson is far better on the right, especially going forward, and makes Liverpool far, far better when he's on the right, but he's still a capable defender on the left. None of West Brom's three goals came from his area of the pitch. And Liverpool's full-backs will be far more focused on defending against City than they were against West Brom.
Maybe there's a slight chance of three at the back – Kelly-Coates-Skrtel, with Johnson and Enrique or Downing as wing-backs – but that seems incredibly unlikely this early in Rodgers' tenure.
Otherwise, the front six should remain the same as last weel, all of them obvious choices at their positions. Suarez will continue to play as the central "striker" with Borini on the left, rather than vice versa, as I've seen suggested by a few. We'll also likely get our first glimpse of Oussama Assaidi, even if it's only a glimpse of him planted firmly on the bench. If any speedy winger is going to come on as a substitute, chances are it's Sterling after his performance against Hearts.
Manchester City remain the league favorites, remain the benchmark. They've scored three in both of their competitive fixtures this season, albeit conceding two in each. Agüero may be injured, but Tevez, Balotelli, and Dzeko remain available. Nasri was outstanding in both matches, scoring in each, assisting Tevez's opener against Southampton. More importantly, City had to overhaul a deficit in both matches, down 0-1 to Chelsea and 1-2 to Southampton. As cliché as it is, that's what champions do. Incidentally, Liverpool came back to win just four matches last season: the 2-1 Carling Cup win at Stoke, the 3-1 league win against Newcastle, and the 5-1 and 2-1 FA Cup wins against Oldham and Everton.
I'm curious to see how City deal with Agüero's absence. Dzeko replaced him against Southampton, switching from a 4-2-3-1 formation to a 4-2-2-2, but I don't expect that to be the case tomorrow. My suspicion is that Milner will come into the side, most likely on the right, with Silva moving to a more central position. But it's not as if the league champions lack for options. City also played three at the back in the Community Shield, as they did against Liverpool in the second leg of the Carling Cup semi-final last season, but I doubt that'll be the case tomorrow; the back four should be Zabaleta, Kompany, Lescott, and either Clichy or Kolarov.
With Gareth Barry still injured, either Rodwell or de Jong will partner Yaya Touré in midfield. Both are liabilities for different reasons, whether de Jong's savage indiscipline or Rodwell's mistakes – as we saw against Southampton. Of course, I also can't forget de Jong's unfathomable goal in the second leg of the Carling Cup semi-final, one of just two he's scored for the club. Lucas and Allen winning the midfield battle, as Lucas did in the 1-1 draw against City last season (one of many draws that Liverpool "deserved" to win) is Liverpool's best hope for winning the match.
This is the first chance to see if last season's "best" quality continues: Liverpool's ability to raise its game against the toughest opposition. Three of Liverpool's four matches against Manchester City were three of Liverpool's most impressive matches of the season: a 1-1 draw that was only a draw because of Hart's miraculous saves, a supremely solid 1-0 away win after taking an early lead, and a battling 2-2 draw where Liverpool twice came back from a goal down to advance to the Carling Cup final. We'll just forget the 0-3 demolishment at the Etihad.
And, hopefully, tomorrow's match will make us forget about last week's 0-3 embarrassment.
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Liverpool at Hearts 08.23.12
2:45pm ET, live in the US on FSC
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 3-0 Gomel (h), 1-0 Gomel (a)
Hearts: n/a
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-3 West Brom (a); 3-0 Gomel (h); 1-0 Gomel (a)
Hearts: 2-2 Inverness CT (h); 1-1 Hibernian (a); 2-0 St. Johnstone (h)
Goalscorers (Europa League):
Liverpool: Borini, Downing, Gerrard, Johnson 1
Hearts: n/a
Referee: Florian Meyer (GER)
Liverpool have actually had Meyer as a referee twice before, the 0-0 draw at Sparta Prague in Liverpool's last Europa League campaign and a 1-0 win over Steaua Bucharest at Anfield in 2003.
Guess at a line-up
Reina
Kelly Coates Agger Robinson
Henderson Allen
Downing Shelvey Sterling
Borini
As with every match preview for a cup tie, the question is "how strong with Liverpool's line-up be?" Not only are Liverpool more likely to use youngsters and reserves in this competition, but the subsequent match is against the reigning Premier League champions.
Which meant it was no surprise when the BBC's Ben Smith, and others, reported that Gerrard, Johnson, Skrtel, and Suarez weren't included in the traveling squad earlier this morning.
The provisional squad is reportedly: Reina, Jones, Kelly, Agger, Carragher, Coates, Flanagan, Shelvey, Lucas, Adam, Allen, Henderson, Spearing, Downing, Borini, Carroll, Wilson, Robinson, Sterling, Eccleston.
More than any other, Gerrard should be rested, not only for Saturday's disappointment but because he needs to be used more sparingly this season if he's going to make it through the entire campaign. I was surprised to see him play both legs against Gomel, but that was arguably still preseason. Now, with three matches in eight days, playing him in this one would have been even more surprising and, honestly, makes little sense.
Lucas, even though he wasn't one of those announced as absent, is in a similar situation. He wasn't at his best against West Brom, arguably still showing the effects of his extended injury. Tomorrow's seems a match for the "second-string" midfield: some combination of Henderson, Shelvey, Spearing, and Adam. There have been rumors about both Adam and Spearing leaving Liverpool (the former if anyone will pay £5m, the latter on loan to Bolton), and if any of the usual starters play, Allen seems the likeliest because of his relative inexperience at the club.
Agger looked likely to start even before Skrtel's reported absence, if only because he's suspended for Sunday's match, but the rest of the back four is guesswork. Coates should be the other center-back if Liverpool really are using this competition to develop players (as they should be), but you'll hear the internet howl around 1:45pm ET tomorrow hf it's Carragher. Enrique's also still dealing with the knock picked up in training last week. I'm excited to see Jack Robinson play, assuming Jack Robinson does play, and it's not Kelly shifting over to left back with Carragher or Flanagan on the right. Or Agger at left back.
I've been trying to come up with someone other than Downing for the right flank, but Liverpool have so few options. Assaidi is ineligible, cup-tied for just the qualifying stages because of his participation with Heerenveen; reports from Holland also suggest he's more likely to play on the left when available as well. Cole is injured. Suso isn't registered in the UEFA squad, at least for this round, while Pacheco started in Monday's u21 match. With Suarez absent, Borini will probably play in the middle, with Sterling likely to be on the left. I guess there's a small chance Carroll could start up front, flanked by Sterling and Borini, but it seems a very small chance. That leaves Shelvey, who played there in the second half against Leverkusen. And that's it. This position needs needs needs to be addressed before the transfer window shuts, more than any other.
New manager John McGlynn has Hearts playing in a 4-1-4-1 system, winning the opening match of the SPL campaign against St. Johnstone before draws against city rivals Hibernian and Inverness Caley Thistle. If he names a full-strength XI, it should look something like: McDonald; Peterson, Zaliukas, Webster, Grainger; McGowan; Templeton, Taouli, Barr, Driver; Sutton.
Center-backs Zaliukas and Webster are the cornerstones of the side – it's probably no coincidence that Caley Thistle came back from 0-2 down, despite having playing with 10 men, after Zaliukas was injured. If the Lithuanian club captain is unable to play, chances are Barr drops into defense with Robinson coming into the side, as Hearts lined up in the second half on Saturday. Striker Sutton has scored from the spot in two of Hearts' three matches this season, while Driver and Templeton – or Novikovas if he starts instead – are dangerous wingers; each has scored once this season, responsible for the three goals not scored by Sutton.
A mostly full-strength Tottenham demolished Hearts at this stage of the competition last season, winning 5-0 at Tynecastle before the kids and reserves played out a 0-0 draw in London. The Jambos XI will look very different to last year's, with only four to six of the same players that started the loss against Spurs. But that match will almost assuredly be on players' minds before kick-off.
That's obviously not the required scoreline for Liverpool; that was a different, stronger Tottenham side and a different, weaker Hearts. A narrow, 1-0 win would suit me just fine. It could be a lucky 1-0 win for all I care, similar to the away leg against Gomel. The side needs to put Saturday's result behind them as quickly as possible, even if it'll be a very different XI, and an away win is the best way to do so. Further evolution in Rodgers' style would be welcome, more than welcome, but given the likely second-string nature of the squad and the importance of qualifying for the competition proper, the performance matters slightly less than the result.
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 3-0 Gomel (h), 1-0 Gomel (a)
Hearts: n/a
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-3 West Brom (a); 3-0 Gomel (h); 1-0 Gomel (a)
Hearts: 2-2 Inverness CT (h); 1-1 Hibernian (a); 2-0 St. Johnstone (h)
Goalscorers (Europa League):
Liverpool: Borini, Downing, Gerrard, Johnson 1
Hearts: n/a
Referee: Florian Meyer (GER)
Liverpool have actually had Meyer as a referee twice before, the 0-0 draw at Sparta Prague in Liverpool's last Europa League campaign and a 1-0 win over Steaua Bucharest at Anfield in 2003.
Guess at a line-up
Reina
Kelly Coates Agger Robinson
Henderson Allen
Downing Shelvey Sterling
Borini
As with every match preview for a cup tie, the question is "how strong with Liverpool's line-up be?" Not only are Liverpool more likely to use youngsters and reserves in this competition, but the subsequent match is against the reigning Premier League champions.
Which meant it was no surprise when the BBC's Ben Smith, and others, reported that Gerrard, Johnson, Skrtel, and Suarez weren't included in the traveling squad earlier this morning.
The provisional squad is reportedly: Reina, Jones, Kelly, Agger, Carragher, Coates, Flanagan, Shelvey, Lucas, Adam, Allen, Henderson, Spearing, Downing, Borini, Carroll, Wilson, Robinson, Sterling, Eccleston.
More than any other, Gerrard should be rested, not only for Saturday's disappointment but because he needs to be used more sparingly this season if he's going to make it through the entire campaign. I was surprised to see him play both legs against Gomel, but that was arguably still preseason. Now, with three matches in eight days, playing him in this one would have been even more surprising and, honestly, makes little sense.
Lucas, even though he wasn't one of those announced as absent, is in a similar situation. He wasn't at his best against West Brom, arguably still showing the effects of his extended injury. Tomorrow's seems a match for the "second-string" midfield: some combination of Henderson, Shelvey, Spearing, and Adam. There have been rumors about both Adam and Spearing leaving Liverpool (the former if anyone will pay £5m, the latter on loan to Bolton), and if any of the usual starters play, Allen seems the likeliest because of his relative inexperience at the club.
Agger looked likely to start even before Skrtel's reported absence, if only because he's suspended for Sunday's match, but the rest of the back four is guesswork. Coates should be the other center-back if Liverpool really are using this competition to develop players (as they should be), but you'll hear the internet howl around 1:45pm ET tomorrow hf it's Carragher. Enrique's also still dealing with the knock picked up in training last week. I'm excited to see Jack Robinson play, assuming Jack Robinson does play, and it's not Kelly shifting over to left back with Carragher or Flanagan on the right. Or Agger at left back.
I've been trying to come up with someone other than Downing for the right flank, but Liverpool have so few options. Assaidi is ineligible, cup-tied for just the qualifying stages because of his participation with Heerenveen; reports from Holland also suggest he's more likely to play on the left when available as well. Cole is injured. Suso isn't registered in the UEFA squad, at least for this round, while Pacheco started in Monday's u21 match. With Suarez absent, Borini will probably play in the middle, with Sterling likely to be on the left. I guess there's a small chance Carroll could start up front, flanked by Sterling and Borini, but it seems a very small chance. That leaves Shelvey, who played there in the second half against Leverkusen. And that's it. This position needs needs needs to be addressed before the transfer window shuts, more than any other.
New manager John McGlynn has Hearts playing in a 4-1-4-1 system, winning the opening match of the SPL campaign against St. Johnstone before draws against city rivals Hibernian and Inverness Caley Thistle. If he names a full-strength XI, it should look something like: McDonald; Peterson, Zaliukas, Webster, Grainger; McGowan; Templeton, Taouli, Barr, Driver; Sutton.
Center-backs Zaliukas and Webster are the cornerstones of the side – it's probably no coincidence that Caley Thistle came back from 0-2 down, despite having playing with 10 men, after Zaliukas was injured. If the Lithuanian club captain is unable to play, chances are Barr drops into defense with Robinson coming into the side, as Hearts lined up in the second half on Saturday. Striker Sutton has scored from the spot in two of Hearts' three matches this season, while Driver and Templeton – or Novikovas if he starts instead – are dangerous wingers; each has scored once this season, responsible for the three goals not scored by Sutton.
A mostly full-strength Tottenham demolished Hearts at this stage of the competition last season, winning 5-0 at Tynecastle before the kids and reserves played out a 0-0 draw in London. The Jambos XI will look very different to last year's, with only four to six of the same players that started the loss against Spurs. But that match will almost assuredly be on players' minds before kick-off.
That's obviously not the required scoreline for Liverpool; that was a different, stronger Tottenham side and a different, weaker Hearts. A narrow, 1-0 win would suit me just fine. It could be a lucky 1-0 win for all I care, similar to the away leg against Gomel. The side needs to put Saturday's result behind them as quickly as possible, even if it'll be a very different XI, and an away win is the best way to do so. Further evolution in Rodgers' style would be welcome, more than welcome, but given the likely second-string nature of the squad and the importance of qualifying for the competition proper, the performance matters slightly less than the result.
Friday, August 17, 2012
Liverpool at West Brom 08.18.12
10am ET, live in the US on FSC
Last four head-to-head:
0-1 West Brom (h) 04.22.12
2-0 Liverpool (a) 10.29.11
1-2 West Brom (a) 04.02.11
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.29.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-1 Leverkusen (h) [friendly]; 3-0 Gomel (h); 1-0 Gomel (a)
West Brom: 2-0 Nottingham Forest (a); 3-1 Walsall (a); 1-1 Sheffield Wednesday (a) [all friendlies]
Referee: Phil Dowd
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Lucas Henderson
Downing Gerrard Borini
Suarez
The Premier League officially starts tomorrow. It seems like it's been ages since the last season ended and yet I can't believe the new season's here so soon. Time flies when you're gossiping about potential signings, I guess.
Whether or not Joe Allen plays seems the only possible deviation from the XI which beat Gomel 3-0 eight days ago.
Allen has only trained for a few days since his move thanks to the midweek internationals. Where he played 90 minutes for Wales. And that's after two weeks of Olympics matches for Great Britain. I'd be surprised if he started tomorrow, no matter how much Rodgers wants him in the team as soon as possible. But needs must, and Rodgers will want the player in the team as soon as possible, so I'm ready to be surprised.
If Allen doesn't start, that midfield place will be filled by either Henderson or Shelvey. Shelvey played there against Gomel and didn't disappoint, but did look almost every bit his age compared to the otherwise full-strength XI. Henderson, slightly more experienced, slightly fresher, seems the more logical choice, but your guess is as good as mine.
Otherwise, I expect Liverpool to continue with the 4-2-3-1 system we've seen in the last two matches. If Henderson's included ahead of Shelvey, both he and Gerrard might play ahead of Lucas, more a 4-1-4-1 than 4-2-3-1 style of 4-3-3, but I suspect the formation deployed against both Gomel and Leverkusen will continue to be the template. Liverpool's back five writes, itself, Lucas' inclusion writes itself, Gerrard should continue to play as an attacking midfielder, and Liverpool don't have many other options for the front three. Borini reportedly picked up a knock earlier in the week which kept him out of Italy's friendly against England, but should be available tomorrow. New signing Oussama Assaidi would be lucky to even make the bench. Liverpool announced the completion of his transfer in the last hour, just after 3pm British time, but he would have to have been registered with the Premier League by 10am today to be included in tomorrow's squad.
This is somewhat shameless self-promotion, but I participated in a Q&A with Kevin Koczwara of LFC Boston yesterday. In it, Kevin rightly pointed out that any improvement in Liverpool's league form will come from beating the likes of West Brom et al given Liverpool's usually decent performances against the league best but woeful disappointment after disappointment against the bottom half of the table.
Liverpool have lost two of the last four meetings against the Baggies, two of the three matches when Albion were managed by current England boss and ex-Liverpool boss Roy Hodgson. Now, West Brom are managed by Liverpool's ex-assistant manager, Steve Clarke. I'm sure that bodes well.
Clarke's first move has been to notably strengthen West Brom's front line, signing Markus Rosenberg from Werder Bremen and bringing in Chelsea's Lukaku on loan. They've also added Ben Foster on a permanent deal, winger Yassine El Ghanassay from Gent, and Argentinean holding midfielder Claudio Yacob. The Guardian's West Brom preview, most of the Baggies' preseason matches, and this Birmingham Mail interview with Clarke suggests Albion will play a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Foster in goal; Reid, Olsson, McAuley, and Ridgewell in defense; Mulumbu and Yacob as the deeper midfielders; Gera, Morrison, and Odemwingie as the attacking line of three; and either Long or Lukaku up front.
Morrison and Olsson picked up knocks during the midweek internationals, but both may be fit in time for tomorrow's match. Rosenberg is less likely to be available, while Graeme Dorrans is on leave because of a family illness. Peter Odemwingie has been the thorn in Liverpool's side in the two losses over the last two seasons, scoring the winner last April and winning both penalties in April 2011.
Prior to those two losses, Liverpool had beaten West Brom in 13 consecutive meetings dating back to 1985, by a combined score of 38-2, and hadn't lost to West Brom since 1981. That's the sort of form Liverpool needs to rediscover against the league's lesser lights. No time like the present to remedy that failing.
Last four head-to-head:
0-1 West Brom (h) 04.22.12
2-0 Liverpool (a) 10.29.11
1-2 West Brom (a) 04.02.11
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.29.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-1 Leverkusen (h) [friendly]; 3-0 Gomel (h); 1-0 Gomel (a)
West Brom: 2-0 Nottingham Forest (a); 3-1 Walsall (a); 1-1 Sheffield Wednesday (a) [all friendlies]
Referee: Phil Dowd
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Lucas Henderson
Downing Gerrard Borini
Suarez
The Premier League officially starts tomorrow. It seems like it's been ages since the last season ended and yet I can't believe the new season's here so soon. Time flies when you're gossiping about potential signings, I guess.
Whether or not Joe Allen plays seems the only possible deviation from the XI which beat Gomel 3-0 eight days ago.
Allen has only trained for a few days since his move thanks to the midweek internationals. Where he played 90 minutes for Wales. And that's after two weeks of Olympics matches for Great Britain. I'd be surprised if he started tomorrow, no matter how much Rodgers wants him in the team as soon as possible. But needs must, and Rodgers will want the player in the team as soon as possible, so I'm ready to be surprised.
If Allen doesn't start, that midfield place will be filled by either Henderson or Shelvey. Shelvey played there against Gomel and didn't disappoint, but did look almost every bit his age compared to the otherwise full-strength XI. Henderson, slightly more experienced, slightly fresher, seems the more logical choice, but your guess is as good as mine.
Otherwise, I expect Liverpool to continue with the 4-2-3-1 system we've seen in the last two matches. If Henderson's included ahead of Shelvey, both he and Gerrard might play ahead of Lucas, more a 4-1-4-1 than 4-2-3-1 style of 4-3-3, but I suspect the formation deployed against both Gomel and Leverkusen will continue to be the template. Liverpool's back five writes, itself, Lucas' inclusion writes itself, Gerrard should continue to play as an attacking midfielder, and Liverpool don't have many other options for the front three. Borini reportedly picked up a knock earlier in the week which kept him out of Italy's friendly against England, but should be available tomorrow. New signing Oussama Assaidi would be lucky to even make the bench. Liverpool announced the completion of his transfer in the last hour, just after 3pm British time, but he would have to have been registered with the Premier League by 10am today to be included in tomorrow's squad.
This is somewhat shameless self-promotion, but I participated in a Q&A with Kevin Koczwara of LFC Boston yesterday. In it, Kevin rightly pointed out that any improvement in Liverpool's league form will come from beating the likes of West Brom et al given Liverpool's usually decent performances against the league best but woeful disappointment after disappointment against the bottom half of the table.
Liverpool have lost two of the last four meetings against the Baggies, two of the three matches when Albion were managed by current England boss and ex-Liverpool boss Roy Hodgson. Now, West Brom are managed by Liverpool's ex-assistant manager, Steve Clarke. I'm sure that bodes well.
Clarke's first move has been to notably strengthen West Brom's front line, signing Markus Rosenberg from Werder Bremen and bringing in Chelsea's Lukaku on loan. They've also added Ben Foster on a permanent deal, winger Yassine El Ghanassay from Gent, and Argentinean holding midfielder Claudio Yacob. The Guardian's West Brom preview, most of the Baggies' preseason matches, and this Birmingham Mail interview with Clarke suggests Albion will play a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Foster in goal; Reid, Olsson, McAuley, and Ridgewell in defense; Mulumbu and Yacob as the deeper midfielders; Gera, Morrison, and Odemwingie as the attacking line of three; and either Long or Lukaku up front.
Morrison and Olsson picked up knocks during the midweek internationals, but both may be fit in time for tomorrow's match. Rosenberg is less likely to be available, while Graeme Dorrans is on leave because of a family illness. Peter Odemwingie has been the thorn in Liverpool's side in the two losses over the last two seasons, scoring the winner last April and winning both penalties in April 2011.
Prior to those two losses, Liverpool had beaten West Brom in 13 consecutive meetings dating back to 1985, by a combined score of 38-2, and hadn't lost to West Brom since 1981. That's the sort of form Liverpool needs to rediscover against the league's lesser lights. No time like the present to remedy that failing.
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
Liverpool v FC Gomel 08.09.12
3:05pm ET, live in the US on FSC
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 1-0 Gomel (a)
Gomel: 0-1 Liverpool (h); 0-1 Renova (h), 2-0 Renova (a); 4-0 Víkingur (h), 6-0 Víkingur (a)
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Gomel (a)
Gomel: 0-1 Liverpool (h); 0-1 Renova (h); 1-1 Polotsk [7-6 pens] (a)
Goalscorers (Europa League):
Liverpool: Downing 1
Gomel: Demidovich 3; Hleb, Kashevski 2; Aleksiyevich, Nowak, Timoshekno, Voronkov 1
Referee: Kenn Hansen (DEN)
Guess at a line-up
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Carragher Enrique
Lucas Gerrard
Henderson
Downing Suarez Borini
1) Is Suarez ready to start after returning from the Olympics on Monday?
2) Is Reina ready to start after returning from his post-Euros vacation on Friday?
3) Is Lucas ready to start after being handled with kid gloves during preseason because of his long-term injury?
4) How badly did Joe Cole hurt himself last Thursday?
5) And what's the deal with Daniel Agger?
Even with an aggregate lead from the last leg, however slight, I expect to see as strong a line-up as possible. The youngsters and reserves will start Sunday's final preseason friendly against Bayer Leverkusen; this match will be crucial preparation for the first league fixture in 10 days time. Plus, there's still the small matter of assuring qualification for the next round.
Reina, Johnson, Agger, Lucas, and Carroll (along with Kelly, Robinson, Adam, Shelvey, Eccleston, and Pacheco) played a 50-or-so-minute behind-closed-doors friendly on Saturday. Which would support the belief that the above players are fit enough to start tomorrow if need be.
It's harder to guess how Suarez will be handled. He had his summer vacation prior to the Olympics, returning to Melwood almost immediately after Uruguay's exit. And Suarez is a player who is rarely rested, or rarely wants to be rested. He started Liverpool's first match last season after returning from his post-Copa America vacation less than a week before, having made zero preseason appearances. I'm tempted to think the same will be the case tomorrow.
And if Suarez starts, it doesn't really matter if Joe Cole's available, because Suarez would start over Cole every single time, with Joey back to human victory cigar bench duty. I am interested to see how Suarez and Borini line up if both feature: who will begin as the central striker, who will begin on the flanks? Admittedly, we'd see a fair bit of switching between the two, but it'll be a strong indication as to who Rodgers sees as his primary striker. I suspect it'll be Suarez – as he was mostly used by Dalglish, as he usually plays for Uruguay – but both he and Borini are capable of lining up in any of the forward positions.
Finally, I truly don't want to contemplate Agger's potential sale, but here we are, after a rumor-filled last few days. Rodgers' press conference this morning did little to put an end to the questions. Agger's participation tomorrow would ensure nothing; players aren't cup-tied by playing in the qualifying rounds anymore. Not that it makes him (or Andy Carroll, for that matter) any likelier to start. Let's just move on before I say or do something I'll regret.
Gomel will have to attack in this leg – not that they didn't in the last leg – but it'll have to be proactive attacking rather than playing on the counter, as they did for nearly 70 minutes in Belarus. They won't be able to pack their own half and rely on Alumona's one-on-one ability. Otherwise, Liverpool should be able to smother the match with passive possession, something that a Rodgers side should always be capable of, even in this very early stage of evolution.
Once again, I expect Gomel to play something like a 4-2-3-1, very similar to last week, with Alumona up front, Nowak and Platonov on the flanks, and Kazeka and Voronkov in the midfield. Both Kazeka and Voronkov played well in the previous match, out-muscling and controlling Liverpool's midfield for long stretches, shutting off angles and quickly transitioning to attack. Which is a large reason why I think Lucas' participation is rather crucial, although I'm also well aware the Brazilian needs to be protected after such a long injury. That I would prefer Spearing doesn't start may also factor into the equation.
I still suspect Vyacheslav Hleb will be absent, but once again, I haven't been able to find any reason for his absence for the last month. The two players involved in Belarus' Olympics squad – attacking midfielder Illya Aleksiyevich and central defender Ihar Kuzmyanok – may well return, exiting the competition at the same stage as Suarez's Uruguay; both were near-constant starters prior to leaving for international duty. Aleksiyevich would likely play in place of Lyavitski, Kuzmyanok either in place of Kirylchyk or with Kashevski shifting into midfield.
Now at Anfield, with a difficult, competitive match in the books, evolution is essential. No matter how early it is, we need to see some progress from last week's laborious, slightly lucky victory. That Liverpool are ahead on aggregate and on familiar ground should lead to an "easier" match: keeping possession and setting the tempo should come more naturally, especially as Gomel will become increasingly desperate the longer than Liverpool maintain its advantage. Still, by now, players, manager, and fans should all be more than aware that nothing ever comes all that easy.
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 1-0 Gomel (a)
Gomel: 0-1 Liverpool (h); 0-1 Renova (h), 2-0 Renova (a); 4-0 Víkingur (h), 6-0 Víkingur (a)
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-0 Gomel (a)
Gomel: 0-1 Liverpool (h); 0-1 Renova (h); 1-1 Polotsk [7-6 pens] (a)
Goalscorers (Europa League):
Liverpool: Downing 1
Gomel: Demidovich 3; Hleb, Kashevski 2; Aleksiyevich, Nowak, Timoshekno, Voronkov 1
Referee: Kenn Hansen (DEN)
Guess at a line-up
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Carragher Enrique
Lucas Gerrard
Henderson
Downing Suarez Borini
1) Is Suarez ready to start after returning from the Olympics on Monday?
2) Is Reina ready to start after returning from his post-Euros vacation on Friday?
3) Is Lucas ready to start after being handled with kid gloves during preseason because of his long-term injury?
4) How badly did Joe Cole hurt himself last Thursday?
5) And what's the deal with Daniel Agger?
Even with an aggregate lead from the last leg, however slight, I expect to see as strong a line-up as possible. The youngsters and reserves will start Sunday's final preseason friendly against Bayer Leverkusen; this match will be crucial preparation for the first league fixture in 10 days time. Plus, there's still the small matter of assuring qualification for the next round.
Reina, Johnson, Agger, Lucas, and Carroll (along with Kelly, Robinson, Adam, Shelvey, Eccleston, and Pacheco) played a 50-or-so-minute behind-closed-doors friendly on Saturday. Which would support the belief that the above players are fit enough to start tomorrow if need be.
It's harder to guess how Suarez will be handled. He had his summer vacation prior to the Olympics, returning to Melwood almost immediately after Uruguay's exit. And Suarez is a player who is rarely rested, or rarely wants to be rested. He started Liverpool's first match last season after returning from his post-Copa America vacation less than a week before, having made zero preseason appearances. I'm tempted to think the same will be the case tomorrow.
And if Suarez starts, it doesn't really matter if Joe Cole's available, because Suarez would start over Cole every single time, with Joey back to human victory cigar bench duty. I am interested to see how Suarez and Borini line up if both feature: who will begin as the central striker, who will begin on the flanks? Admittedly, we'd see a fair bit of switching between the two, but it'll be a strong indication as to who Rodgers sees as his primary striker. I suspect it'll be Suarez – as he was mostly used by Dalglish, as he usually plays for Uruguay – but both he and Borini are capable of lining up in any of the forward positions.
Finally, I truly don't want to contemplate Agger's potential sale, but here we are, after a rumor-filled last few days. Rodgers' press conference this morning did little to put an end to the questions. Agger's participation tomorrow would ensure nothing; players aren't cup-tied by playing in the qualifying rounds anymore. Not that it makes him (or Andy Carroll, for that matter) any likelier to start. Let's just move on before I say or do something I'll regret.
Gomel will have to attack in this leg – not that they didn't in the last leg – but it'll have to be proactive attacking rather than playing on the counter, as they did for nearly 70 minutes in Belarus. They won't be able to pack their own half and rely on Alumona's one-on-one ability. Otherwise, Liverpool should be able to smother the match with passive possession, something that a Rodgers side should always be capable of, even in this very early stage of evolution.
Once again, I expect Gomel to play something like a 4-2-3-1, very similar to last week, with Alumona up front, Nowak and Platonov on the flanks, and Kazeka and Voronkov in the midfield. Both Kazeka and Voronkov played well in the previous match, out-muscling and controlling Liverpool's midfield for long stretches, shutting off angles and quickly transitioning to attack. Which is a large reason why I think Lucas' participation is rather crucial, although I'm also well aware the Brazilian needs to be protected after such a long injury. That I would prefer Spearing doesn't start may also factor into the equation.
I still suspect Vyacheslav Hleb will be absent, but once again, I haven't been able to find any reason for his absence for the last month. The two players involved in Belarus' Olympics squad – attacking midfielder Illya Aleksiyevich and central defender Ihar Kuzmyanok – may well return, exiting the competition at the same stage as Suarez's Uruguay; both were near-constant starters prior to leaving for international duty. Aleksiyevich would likely play in place of Lyavitski, Kuzmyanok either in place of Kirylchyk or with Kashevski shifting into midfield.
Now at Anfield, with a difficult, competitive match in the books, evolution is essential. No matter how early it is, we need to see some progress from last week's laborious, slightly lucky victory. That Liverpool are ahead on aggregate and on familiar ground should lead to an "easier" match: keeping possession and setting the tempo should come more naturally, especially as Gomel will become increasingly desperate the longer than Liverpool maintain its advantage. Still, by now, players, manager, and fans should all be more than aware that nothing ever comes all that easy.
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Liverpool at FC Gomel 08.02.12
2:00pm ET, live in the US on FSC (I know, right!)
Previous rounds:
Gomel: 0-1 Renova (h), 2-0 Renova (a); 4-0 Víkingur (h), 6-0 Víkingur (a)
Last three matches:
Gomel: 0-1 Renova (h); 1-1 Polotsk [7-6 pens] (a); 2-0 Renova (a)
Goalscorers (Europa League):
Gomel: Demidovich 3; Hleb, Kashevski 2; Aleksiyevich, Nowak, Timoshekno, Voronkov 1
Guess at a line-up
Jones
Flanagan Skrtel Carragher Enrique
Henderson Lucas Shelvey
Downing Borini Sterling
It's been almost 18 whole months. I've forgotten what European football feels like.
Rodgers' first competitive line-up will go one of two ways. Either we'll see most if not all of the first-team regulars who have traveled, or the starting XI will look a lot like the three preseason friendlies.
I've gone for the above guess because I just don't see the point of bringing Lucas, Borini, Henderson, etc. without starting them. Borini may be a special case, because he's unfamiliar with both the club and pan-European competition, but the rest have played in fixtures like this before. Gerrard's also an exception – I'd be surprised if he were given more than a substitute cameo because of his summer workload and injury history – but otherwise, there's little point in bringing the heavy hitters if they're going to sit on the bench in 'break glass if needed' cases. This isn't a friendly; you aren't allowed to make wholesale changes at halftime if the side's more toothless than an old crone. If you think you'll need them, start them, especially those who had little or nothing to do at the Euros. Still, I wouldn't be incredibly surprised if Liverpool's front six was Shelvey, Spearing, Adam; Cole, Morgan, Sterling instead. The above should be the back five regardless of who starts in the front six.
Two who haven't traveled despite being named in the UEFA squad list are Andy Carroll and Daniel Pacheco. The former has a slight groin strain (wink wink, nudge nudge) while the latter played in today's reserve friendly against Huddersfield (along with Suso, Sama, Adorjan, and Wisdom). I may well be reading too much into it, but it doesn't bode well for either, especially Carroll: yet another sign that he isn't wanted, on his way out as soon as he agrees to go to West Ham or Newcastle make a large enough offer. Alas. We'll cross that bridge when we come to it, probably sooner rather than later. Eccleston also hasn't been included in the squad list, which means that it has to be 18-year-old Adam Morgan up front if Borini doesn't start.
I admittedly can't tell you much about FC Gomel. They're currently third in the Belorussian Premier League, which began in March, four points behind second place Shakhtyor Soligorsk, but with three games in hand. They've lost just one of their last eight matches, the 0-1 defeat to Renova in the last round of this competition, content to see out a 2-0 advantage from the first leg. They've lost just two league matches since the start of the season, to first-place BATE Borisov and at Torpedo Zhodino, in mid-May and mid-June respectively.
This match report, of the 2-0 win against Renova from Football-Lineups, should give you a decent idea of how Gomel will line up. They'll play 4-2-3-1, and Demidovich – Gomel's top scorer through the first two qualifying rounds – and Nowak will be the biggest threats cutting in from the flanks. The only change in line-up for the second leg against Renova was Bushma, the more-frequent starter, in goal rather than Ostojić.
The one Gomel name you might recognize is Vyacheslav Hleb, Alexander Hleb's younger brother, who hasn't featured since the first qualifying round. I believe he's injured, going off against Víkingur after an 18-minute substitute appearance, but I (read: Google) honestly don't know for sure. Gomel will also be without two usual starters due to the Olympics: attacking midfielder Illya Aleksiyevich and central defender Ihar Kuzmyanok.
I'm tempted to say that Liverpool just need to hold on (which is why I was tempted to guess a weaker line-up), just survive and get back to the more-important second leg at Anfield, where more of first-team players will have trained for a week longer. But that isn't really the case. It's Rodgers first competitive match and first match in European competition. Liverpool need to put last season's failures behind them as quickly as possible; as depressing as it is to write, there's little room for error. Already. Starting the season so soon has its benefits, especially with the devilish start to the Premiership campaign upcoming, with more to gain and more to lose than in the previous half-hearted friendlies. But lose and the knives come out. Already. Lose and heads will drop, with rebuilding the side's shattered confidence already a clear priority.
So just win. Anything less would be uncivilized.
Previous rounds:
Gomel: 0-1 Renova (h), 2-0 Renova (a); 4-0 Víkingur (h), 6-0 Víkingur (a)
Last three matches:
Gomel: 0-1 Renova (h); 1-1 Polotsk [7-6 pens] (a); 2-0 Renova (a)
Goalscorers (Europa League):
Gomel: Demidovich 3; Hleb, Kashevski 2; Aleksiyevich, Nowak, Timoshekno, Voronkov 1
Guess at a line-up
Jones
Flanagan Skrtel Carragher Enrique
Henderson Lucas Shelvey
Downing Borini Sterling
It's been almost 18 whole months. I've forgotten what European football feels like.
Rodgers' first competitive line-up will go one of two ways. Either we'll see most if not all of the first-team regulars who have traveled, or the starting XI will look a lot like the three preseason friendlies.
I've gone for the above guess because I just don't see the point of bringing Lucas, Borini, Henderson, etc. without starting them. Borini may be a special case, because he's unfamiliar with both the club and pan-European competition, but the rest have played in fixtures like this before. Gerrard's also an exception – I'd be surprised if he were given more than a substitute cameo because of his summer workload and injury history – but otherwise, there's little point in bringing the heavy hitters if they're going to sit on the bench in 'break glass if needed' cases. This isn't a friendly; you aren't allowed to make wholesale changes at halftime if the side's more toothless than an old crone. If you think you'll need them, start them, especially those who had little or nothing to do at the Euros. Still, I wouldn't be incredibly surprised if Liverpool's front six was Shelvey, Spearing, Adam; Cole, Morgan, Sterling instead. The above should be the back five regardless of who starts in the front six.
Two who haven't traveled despite being named in the UEFA squad list are Andy Carroll and Daniel Pacheco. The former has a slight groin strain (wink wink, nudge nudge) while the latter played in today's reserve friendly against Huddersfield (along with Suso, Sama, Adorjan, and Wisdom). I may well be reading too much into it, but it doesn't bode well for either, especially Carroll: yet another sign that he isn't wanted, on his way out as soon as he agrees to go to West Ham or Newcastle make a large enough offer. Alas. We'll cross that bridge when we come to it, probably sooner rather than later. Eccleston also hasn't been included in the squad list, which means that it has to be 18-year-old Adam Morgan up front if Borini doesn't start.
I admittedly can't tell you much about FC Gomel. They're currently third in the Belorussian Premier League, which began in March, four points behind second place Shakhtyor Soligorsk, but with three games in hand. They've lost just one of their last eight matches, the 0-1 defeat to Renova in the last round of this competition, content to see out a 2-0 advantage from the first leg. They've lost just two league matches since the start of the season, to first-place BATE Borisov and at Torpedo Zhodino, in mid-May and mid-June respectively.
This match report, of the 2-0 win against Renova from Football-Lineups, should give you a decent idea of how Gomel will line up. They'll play 4-2-3-1, and Demidovich – Gomel's top scorer through the first two qualifying rounds – and Nowak will be the biggest threats cutting in from the flanks. The only change in line-up for the second leg against Renova was Bushma, the more-frequent starter, in goal rather than Ostojić.
The one Gomel name you might recognize is Vyacheslav Hleb, Alexander Hleb's younger brother, who hasn't featured since the first qualifying round. I believe he's injured, going off against Víkingur after an 18-minute substitute appearance, but I (read: Google) honestly don't know for sure. Gomel will also be without two usual starters due to the Olympics: attacking midfielder Illya Aleksiyevich and central defender Ihar Kuzmyanok.
I'm tempted to say that Liverpool just need to hold on (which is why I was tempted to guess a weaker line-up), just survive and get back to the more-important second leg at Anfield, where more of first-team players will have trained for a week longer. But that isn't really the case. It's Rodgers first competitive match and first match in European competition. Liverpool need to put last season's failures behind them as quickly as possible; as depressing as it is to write, there's little room for error. Already. Starting the season so soon has its benefits, especially with the devilish start to the Premiership campaign upcoming, with more to gain and more to lose than in the previous half-hearted friendlies. But lose and the knives come out. Already. Lose and heads will drop, with rebuilding the side's shattered confidence already a clear priority.
So just win. Anything less would be uncivilized.
Friday, May 11, 2012
Liverpool at Swansea 05.13.12
10am ET, live in the US on Fuel TV.
I don't know if your cable service gets Fuel TV. Given Fox's ubiquity, chances are it does, especially if you have any extra sports packages. I suspect most providers bundle it with the same package Fox Soccer comes on. It is channel 618 on DirecTV.
Also, once again, I'd like to thank Fox for this "Survival Sunday," televising six matches with three others available via the internet and City v QPR on espn2. I can't remember the last time Liverpool's last match of the season aired on US television; it hasn't happened in the six seasons I've had this blog. Which is depressing, but nonetheless. Well done, Fox. For a change.
Last four head-to-head:
0-0 (h) 11.05.11
8-0 Liverpool (h; FA Cup) 01.09.90
0-0 (a; FA Cup) 01.06.90
3-0 Liverpool (h) 04.09.83
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 4-1 Chelsea (a); 1-2 Chelsea (n); 0-1 Fulham (h)
Swansea: 0-2 United (a); 4-4 Wolves (h); 1-1 Bolton (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 11; Bellamy 6; Gerrard 5; Carroll, Maxi 4; Adam, Henderson, Kuyt, Skrtel 2; Agger, Coates, Johnson, Shelvey 1
Swansea: Graham 11; Sinclair 8; Sigurdsson 7; Dyer 5; Allen 4; Lita, Moore 2; Orlandi, Routledge, Williams 1
Referee: Mark Halsey
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Skrtel Enrique
Kuyt Henderson Shelvey Downing
Carroll Suarez
I'd be surprised if there were many changes from Tuesday's XI. How do you change a team which beat the Champions League finalists 4-1? Dalglish, rightfully, has prioritized finishing as strongly as possible rather than baptizing multiple youngsters by fire.
At the very least, there should be no changes up front. There's no dropping Carroll after the last two matches, and it's infinitely regrettable that it took until May to see his partnership with Suarez fire so impressively. Whether Gerrard's fit or not, held out against Chelsea with a back problem, will dictate the midfield selection. I suspect he'll be protected at all costs, especially considering the Euros this summer, which should mean another chance for the promising Henderson-Shelvey pairing.
Maxi probably made his last start for Liverpool on Tuesday, so the flanks should comprise two from Downing, Kuyt, and Bellamy; Downing on one flank, Kuyt or Bellamy on the other, with Sterling coming off the bench in the second half again. Carragher will most likely start in defense again, putting him one match away from 700 appearances. Who'll be left out? As said before Chelsea, I wouldn't mind a Carragher-Coates pairing, if only to give Skrtel and Agger a deserved early summer, but chances are at least one of them will start. If Enrique's still carrying a knock, it'll be the same back four as against Chelsea. But I suspect he'll come back into the side with Skrtel or Agger – most likely the latter – making way.
As often happens with promoted sides who impress for the majority of the campaign, Swansea have suffered of late, winning just once in their last eight matches, falling from 8th in mid-March to their current 12th position, only ahead of Norwich and Stoke on goal difference.
Still – and I mean this as non-patronizingly as possible – 12th is a remarkable accomplishment. Even if Norwich and Stoke overtake the Swans on the last day, 14th would be a remarkable accomplishment. Like Blackpool last season, Swansea have done it 'their own way,' with attacking, possession football, but will stay up where Blackpool immediately dropped back to the Championship. Brendan Rodgers has done a fantastic job; only Pardew's accomplishments with Newcastle should prevent him from getting the manager of the year award. And, as Dalglish said in his pre-match press conference, some credit has to go to Roberto Martinez for building the foundation.
Sigurdsson has been a revelation since joining on loan in January. Allen, Gower, and Britton are clever midfielders capable of monopolizing the ball. Dyer and Sinclair have speed to burn up and down the flanks, Vorm makes multiple unlikely saves, and Danny Graham simply finishes chances. Swansea will almost assuredly stick with their familiar 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 formation, with Vorm; Rangel, Caulker, Williams, Taylor; Gower or Britton, Sigurdsson, Allen; Dyer, Graham, Sinclair.
Tuesday's match was the perfect Anfield finale, thoroughly beating – nay, embarrassing – a hated foe with vengeful, comprehensive finishing. Here's hoping for a similar sign-off away from home, getting revenge on one of the many clubs who held Liverpool to an frustrating home draw earlier in the season.
I don't know if your cable service gets Fuel TV. Given Fox's ubiquity, chances are it does, especially if you have any extra sports packages. I suspect most providers bundle it with the same package Fox Soccer comes on. It is channel 618 on DirecTV.
Also, once again, I'd like to thank Fox for this "Survival Sunday," televising six matches with three others available via the internet and City v QPR on espn2. I can't remember the last time Liverpool's last match of the season aired on US television; it hasn't happened in the six seasons I've had this blog. Which is depressing, but nonetheless. Well done, Fox. For a change.
Last four head-to-head:
0-0 (h) 11.05.11
8-0 Liverpool (h; FA Cup) 01.09.90
0-0 (a; FA Cup) 01.06.90
3-0 Liverpool (h) 04.09.83
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 4-1 Chelsea (a); 1-2 Chelsea (n); 0-1 Fulham (h)
Swansea: 0-2 United (a); 4-4 Wolves (h); 1-1 Bolton (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 11; Bellamy 6; Gerrard 5; Carroll, Maxi 4; Adam, Henderson, Kuyt, Skrtel 2; Agger, Coates, Johnson, Shelvey 1
Swansea: Graham 11; Sinclair 8; Sigurdsson 7; Dyer 5; Allen 4; Lita, Moore 2; Orlandi, Routledge, Williams 1
Referee: Mark Halsey
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Carragher Skrtel Enrique
Kuyt Henderson Shelvey Downing
Carroll Suarez
I'd be surprised if there were many changes from Tuesday's XI. How do you change a team which beat the Champions League finalists 4-1? Dalglish, rightfully, has prioritized finishing as strongly as possible rather than baptizing multiple youngsters by fire.
At the very least, there should be no changes up front. There's no dropping Carroll after the last two matches, and it's infinitely regrettable that it took until May to see his partnership with Suarez fire so impressively. Whether Gerrard's fit or not, held out against Chelsea with a back problem, will dictate the midfield selection. I suspect he'll be protected at all costs, especially considering the Euros this summer, which should mean another chance for the promising Henderson-Shelvey pairing.
Maxi probably made his last start for Liverpool on Tuesday, so the flanks should comprise two from Downing, Kuyt, and Bellamy; Downing on one flank, Kuyt or Bellamy on the other, with Sterling coming off the bench in the second half again. Carragher will most likely start in defense again, putting him one match away from 700 appearances. Who'll be left out? As said before Chelsea, I wouldn't mind a Carragher-Coates pairing, if only to give Skrtel and Agger a deserved early summer, but chances are at least one of them will start. If Enrique's still carrying a knock, it'll be the same back four as against Chelsea. But I suspect he'll come back into the side with Skrtel or Agger – most likely the latter – making way.
As often happens with promoted sides who impress for the majority of the campaign, Swansea have suffered of late, winning just once in their last eight matches, falling from 8th in mid-March to their current 12th position, only ahead of Norwich and Stoke on goal difference.
Still – and I mean this as non-patronizingly as possible – 12th is a remarkable accomplishment. Even if Norwich and Stoke overtake the Swans on the last day, 14th would be a remarkable accomplishment. Like Blackpool last season, Swansea have done it 'their own way,' with attacking, possession football, but will stay up where Blackpool immediately dropped back to the Championship. Brendan Rodgers has done a fantastic job; only Pardew's accomplishments with Newcastle should prevent him from getting the manager of the year award. And, as Dalglish said in his pre-match press conference, some credit has to go to Roberto Martinez for building the foundation.
Sigurdsson has been a revelation since joining on loan in January. Allen, Gower, and Britton are clever midfielders capable of monopolizing the ball. Dyer and Sinclair have speed to burn up and down the flanks, Vorm makes multiple unlikely saves, and Danny Graham simply finishes chances. Swansea will almost assuredly stick with their familiar 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 formation, with Vorm; Rangel, Caulker, Williams, Taylor; Gower or Britton, Sigurdsson, Allen; Dyer, Graham, Sinclair.
Tuesday's match was the perfect Anfield finale, thoroughly beating – nay, embarrassing – a hated foe with vengeful, comprehensive finishing. Here's hoping for a similar sign-off away from home, getting revenge on one of the many clubs who held Liverpool to an frustrating home draw earlier in the season.
Monday, May 7, 2012
Liverpool v Chelsea 05.08.12
3pm ET, live in the US on FSC
Last four head-to-head:
1-2 Chelsea (n; FA Cup) 05.05.12
2-0 Liverpool (a; League Cup) 11.29.11
2-1 Liverpool (a) 11.20.11
1-0 Liverpool (a) 02.06.11
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-2 Chelsea (n); 0-1 Fulham (h); 3-0 Norwich (a)
Chelsea: 2-1 Liverpool (n); 0-2 Newcastle (h); 6-1 QPR (h)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 11; Bellamy 6; Gerrard 5; Carroll, Maxi 4; Adam, Kuyt, Skrtel 2; Coates, Henderson, Johnson 1
Chelsea: Lampard, Sturridge 11; Mata, Torres 6; Drogba, Terry 5; Ramires 4; Ivanovic 3; Luiz, Malouda 2; Boswinga, Cahill, Kalou, Meireles 1
Referee: Kevin Friend
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Carragher Coates Robinson
Henderson Gerrard Shelvey Downing
Carroll Suarez
It's not wholly meaningless, especially considering the opposition. Admittedly, no Liverpool match is ever "meaningless" to most fans, but I imagine you understand the feeling at this stage of the season. Anyway, Saturday's cup final defeat is very fresh in the memory and revenge is one of nature's best motivators. At least that's the hope. Plus, a point or three here could well be the difference between 7th, 8th, 9th, or 10th – ultimately unimportant in the grand scheme of things, but still meaningful to the players, manager, and fans. But it's still kind of meaningless. Sigh.
Regardless, it's not as if we'll see a full-strength side or, conversely, an XI packed with kids. It'll probably be a mix of both. That worked well against Fulham last week.
So who seems certain? Carroll, definitely, after his near match-saving performance on Saturday, most likely partnered with Suarez. And Carroll most likely means 4-4-2. Of course, Liverpool remain handicapped for options in central midfield and the flanks. Will Kuyt and Maxi get Anfield send-offs or will Liverpool play players likely to be here next season? Does Gerrard start or will Liverpool shut him down early because of the Euros this summer? Will Spearing really play after his last two appearances? Finally, as much as we'd like to see Sterling start, he's 1000% more likely to come off the bench, and rightfully so.
Even if it's not his last campaign, Carragher will probably get an Anfield swan song, hopefully partnered with Coates for the final two matches, allowing Skrtel and Agger a deserved early summer. Aurelio got his swan song last week against Fulham; it'd be nice to see Robinson for the first time since his two appearances in the early rounds of the Carling Cup. Last week's match against Fulham thoroughly demonstrated Kelly's rustiness, and Johnson's another likely to have a busy summer. It also might be a match for Jones or Doni, as Reina didn't do himself justice on either of Chelsea's goals on Saturday, which has frighteningly been a recurring theme this season.
Chelsea ostensibly have more motivation, needing the points in the small hope of fourth, but also needing Newcastle, Tottenham, and Arsenal to drop points on the last day to achieve it. Even if Chelsea's eggs are mostly in the Champions League basket, I suspect they'll still play a mostly strong line-up tomorrow. There will obviously be some changes. In contrast to Saturday's entirely more important match, I expect both ex-Liverpool players will start: Torres up front and Meireles as one of the two deeper midfielders. Options are still limited in defense due to Cahill and Luiz's injuries, so the only changes likely in the back four are the full-backs possibly spelled by Ferreira and Bertrand. Otherwise, their XI is as much of a guess as Liverpool's.
That Liverpool are facing Chelsea is some small comfort. We've seen how bad Liverpool can be when simply going through the motions in an unimportant league match, whether against Fulham last week or Spurs and Villa in the last two matches last season. Or a bunch of other league matches since, say, March.
And we all know the litany of records Liverpool will probably "beat" no matter the outcome of this last home match: fewest home goals and home wins in something like a century, and the lowest league position since Souness' doomed regime, among others. Nonetheless, beating Chelsea tomorrow would provide some small measure of consolation as we begin to repress the memory of this dismal campaign.
Last four head-to-head:
1-2 Chelsea (n; FA Cup) 05.05.12
2-0 Liverpool (a; League Cup) 11.29.11
2-1 Liverpool (a) 11.20.11
1-0 Liverpool (a) 02.06.11
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-2 Chelsea (n); 0-1 Fulham (h); 3-0 Norwich (a)
Chelsea: 2-1 Liverpool (n); 0-2 Newcastle (h); 6-1 QPR (h)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 11; Bellamy 6; Gerrard 5; Carroll, Maxi 4; Adam, Kuyt, Skrtel 2; Coates, Henderson, Johnson 1
Chelsea: Lampard, Sturridge 11; Mata, Torres 6; Drogba, Terry 5; Ramires 4; Ivanovic 3; Luiz, Malouda 2; Boswinga, Cahill, Kalou, Meireles 1
Referee: Kevin Friend
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Carragher Coates Robinson
Henderson Gerrard Shelvey Downing
Carroll Suarez
It's not wholly meaningless, especially considering the opposition. Admittedly, no Liverpool match is ever "meaningless" to most fans, but I imagine you understand the feeling at this stage of the season. Anyway, Saturday's cup final defeat is very fresh in the memory and revenge is one of nature's best motivators. At least that's the hope. Plus, a point or three here could well be the difference between 7th, 8th, 9th, or 10th – ultimately unimportant in the grand scheme of things, but still meaningful to the players, manager, and fans. But it's still kind of meaningless. Sigh.
Regardless, it's not as if we'll see a full-strength side or, conversely, an XI packed with kids. It'll probably be a mix of both. That worked well against Fulham last week.
So who seems certain? Carroll, definitely, after his near match-saving performance on Saturday, most likely partnered with Suarez. And Carroll most likely means 4-4-2. Of course, Liverpool remain handicapped for options in central midfield and the flanks. Will Kuyt and Maxi get Anfield send-offs or will Liverpool play players likely to be here next season? Does Gerrard start or will Liverpool shut him down early because of the Euros this summer? Will Spearing really play after his last two appearances? Finally, as much as we'd like to see Sterling start, he's 1000% more likely to come off the bench, and rightfully so.
Even if it's not his last campaign, Carragher will probably get an Anfield swan song, hopefully partnered with Coates for the final two matches, allowing Skrtel and Agger a deserved early summer. Aurelio got his swan song last week against Fulham; it'd be nice to see Robinson for the first time since his two appearances in the early rounds of the Carling Cup. Last week's match against Fulham thoroughly demonstrated Kelly's rustiness, and Johnson's another likely to have a busy summer. It also might be a match for Jones or Doni, as Reina didn't do himself justice on either of Chelsea's goals on Saturday, which has frighteningly been a recurring theme this season.
Chelsea ostensibly have more motivation, needing the points in the small hope of fourth, but also needing Newcastle, Tottenham, and Arsenal to drop points on the last day to achieve it. Even if Chelsea's eggs are mostly in the Champions League basket, I suspect they'll still play a mostly strong line-up tomorrow. There will obviously be some changes. In contrast to Saturday's entirely more important match, I expect both ex-Liverpool players will start: Torres up front and Meireles as one of the two deeper midfielders. Options are still limited in defense due to Cahill and Luiz's injuries, so the only changes likely in the back four are the full-backs possibly spelled by Ferreira and Bertrand. Otherwise, their XI is as much of a guess as Liverpool's.
That Liverpool are facing Chelsea is some small comfort. We've seen how bad Liverpool can be when simply going through the motions in an unimportant league match, whether against Fulham last week or Spurs and Villa in the last two matches last season. Or a bunch of other league matches since, say, March.
And we all know the litany of records Liverpool will probably "beat" no matter the outcome of this last home match: fewest home goals and home wins in something like a century, and the lowest league position since Souness' doomed regime, among others. Nonetheless, beating Chelsea tomorrow would provide some small measure of consolation as we begin to repress the memory of this dismal campaign.
Friday, May 4, 2012
Liverpool v Chelsea 05.05.12
12:15pm ET, live in the US on FSC
Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (a; Carling Cup) 11.29.11
2-1 Liverpool (a) 11.20.11
1-0 Liverpool (a) 02.06.11
2-0 Liverpool (h) 11.07.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-1 Fulham (a); 3-0 Norwich (a); 0-1 West Brom (h)
Chelsea: 0-2 Newcastle (h); 6-1 QPR (h); 2-2 Barcelona (a)
Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Suarez 17; Bellamy 9; Carroll, Gerrard 8; Maxi 6; Kuyt 5; Skrtel 4; Adam, Downing 2; Agger, Coates, Henderson, Johnson, Kelly, Shelvey 1
Chelsea: Lampard 16; Sturridge 13; Mata 12; Drogba, Torres 11; Ramires 10; Terry 6; Ivanovic, Kalou, Meireles 5; Luiz, Malouda 3; Cahill 2; Boswinga 1
Referee: Phil Dowd
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Henderson Spearing
Kuyt Gerrard Bellamy
Suarez
For those who think formation doesn't matter, that the tactical eggheads who reduce the game to numbers and minutiae are ruining the fun for normal people, well, you're wrong. It matters very much, especially in a match like Liverpool against Chelsea, no matter either's form, and especially in a cup final – matches which are usually decided by minutiae.
I honestly don't know whether Liverpool will play two up front or three in midfield. And the choice will probably define proceedings.
Since Adam's injury, Liverpool have usually been better with Suarez and Carroll up top. Both matches against Everton and Stoke in the FA Cup, most notably. Despite the strike partnership's two-steps-forward-three-steps-back evolution, Liverpool look more threatening with both Suarez and Carroll on the pitch, no matter any subsequent weakening in the middle. And honestly, in most matches, Liverpool's had weaknesses in the middle no matter the formation.
However, the "big game" template – at Chelsea in the league, both legs against City in the Carling Cup semi, both matches against Arsenal, and all three against United – has been a five-man midfield and a lone striker. All of those matches took place before Adam's season-ending injury. Do Liverpool now have the central midfielders to play 4-2-3-1?
Well, the short answer is Liverpool don't really have the midfielders to play either 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1. I know, that never looked likely in August. But that sort of postmortem can wait another couple of weeks. Each formation would have detriments and positives. The goal, obviously, is picking the one with more of the latter than the former.
There are still, always, questions over Gerrard in a 4-4-2, no matter if he's paired with Henderson, Shelvey, or Spearing. But is adding another of those three to make a three-man midfield really the best solution? Maybe I'm just biased by what we had to sit through on Tuesday. Henderson did not look good, removed after 45 minutes. Shelvey looked marginally better, but "good" remains a bridge too far. Spearing was approximately the absolute opposite of good. Maybe this won't be the case with a stronger XI. Maybe it won't be the case because it's a cup final rather than a ho-hum-who-cares league match. Maybe it won't be the case with Gerrard playing, either holding behind the attackers, as in the both legs of the Carling Cup semi-final (which remains my template for Liverpool's big game tactics), or roaming behind the striker with two others sitting.
That both of these options have such glaring weaknesses means we might see a curve ball, something similar to the 3-5-2 used at Stamford Bridge last season, but that seems a less likely option simply because the only time it's been used this season was the 0-0 against Stoke at Anfield. Still, there's assuredly a case to be made for an XI of, say, Reina; Skrtel Carragher Agger; Johnson Henderson Spearing Gerrard Enrique; Suarez Carroll.
The other concerns: who plays on the flanks and Carragher. I'm not really concerned by the latter, but I'm mostly just incredulous that he might be an option. Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, and Enrique are all fit. Dalglish has almost always chosen those four when all are fit. The lone exception, the semi-final against Everton, was a different case because it's Everton and because of how Osman played as a "right winger." Ramires (or, less likely, Sturridge or Mata) will play that role somewhat differently. If Liverpool play 3-5-2, he'll play. That makes sense. Carra starting in a center-back pairing with both Agger and Skrtel fit and Drogba likely to start does not.
As for the flanks, it seems an easy answer if Liverpool use a five-man midfield. Downing's been really really really (did I mention really?) terrible lately and Maxi played 90 minutes on Tuesday. That leaves Bellamy and Kuyt. Yet another area where Liverpool aren't exactly overflowing with options. If 4-4-2, it'll probably be Henderson on the right and Bellamy or Downing on the left.
Chelsea, on the other hand, will play 4-2-3-1. Outside of the Barcelona tie, where they were 4-2-3-1 in name only, Di Matteo has rolely deployed that formation. Which is another reason I think Liverpool need three central midfielders. Drogba will play as lone striker, in front of a line of Kalou-Mata-Ramires, with Lampard and Mikel, Essien, or Meireles holding. The back four will be Boswinga, Ivanovic, St John Terry, and Shotgun Cole. Both Cahill and David Luiz remain injured.
So, it's finally here. The match which will define Liverpool's season. Win, and there are arguments that the campaign wasn't so terrible despite the overwhelming terribleness of the league campaign. A domestic cup double cannot be undervalued, no matter how much each competition has been devalued in recent years. Lose and, well, I'd rather not contemplate. It would probably be ugly.
It seems insane that there's so much hanging on one fixture, but insanity has been this season's dominant leitmotif. That it's against that lot, the nouveau riche Evil Empire from South London, is eminently fitting. Liverpool have won five trophies since 2004-05: the 2005 Champions League, the 2005 UEFA Super Cup, the 2006 FA Cup, the 2006 Community Shield, and the 2012 League Cup. They had to beat Chelsea on the path to each of those triumphs.
Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (a; Carling Cup) 11.29.11
2-1 Liverpool (a) 11.20.11
1-0 Liverpool (a) 02.06.11
2-0 Liverpool (h) 11.07.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-1 Fulham (a); 3-0 Norwich (a); 0-1 West Brom (h)
Chelsea: 0-2 Newcastle (h); 6-1 QPR (h); 2-2 Barcelona (a)
Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Suarez 17; Bellamy 9; Carroll, Gerrard 8; Maxi 6; Kuyt 5; Skrtel 4; Adam, Downing 2; Agger, Coates, Henderson, Johnson, Kelly, Shelvey 1
Chelsea: Lampard 16; Sturridge 13; Mata 12; Drogba, Torres 11; Ramires 10; Terry 6; Ivanovic, Kalou, Meireles 5; Luiz, Malouda 3; Cahill 2; Boswinga 1
Referee: Phil Dowd
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Henderson Spearing
Kuyt Gerrard Bellamy
Suarez
For those who think formation doesn't matter, that the tactical eggheads who reduce the game to numbers and minutiae are ruining the fun for normal people, well, you're wrong. It matters very much, especially in a match like Liverpool against Chelsea, no matter either's form, and especially in a cup final – matches which are usually decided by minutiae.
I honestly don't know whether Liverpool will play two up front or three in midfield. And the choice will probably define proceedings.
Since Adam's injury, Liverpool have usually been better with Suarez and Carroll up top. Both matches against Everton and Stoke in the FA Cup, most notably. Despite the strike partnership's two-steps-forward-three-steps-back evolution, Liverpool look more threatening with both Suarez and Carroll on the pitch, no matter any subsequent weakening in the middle. And honestly, in most matches, Liverpool's had weaknesses in the middle no matter the formation.
However, the "big game" template – at Chelsea in the league, both legs against City in the Carling Cup semi, both matches against Arsenal, and all three against United – has been a five-man midfield and a lone striker. All of those matches took place before Adam's season-ending injury. Do Liverpool now have the central midfielders to play 4-2-3-1?
Well, the short answer is Liverpool don't really have the midfielders to play either 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1. I know, that never looked likely in August. But that sort of postmortem can wait another couple of weeks. Each formation would have detriments and positives. The goal, obviously, is picking the one with more of the latter than the former.
There are still, always, questions over Gerrard in a 4-4-2, no matter if he's paired with Henderson, Shelvey, or Spearing. But is adding another of those three to make a three-man midfield really the best solution? Maybe I'm just biased by what we had to sit through on Tuesday. Henderson did not look good, removed after 45 minutes. Shelvey looked marginally better, but "good" remains a bridge too far. Spearing was approximately the absolute opposite of good. Maybe this won't be the case with a stronger XI. Maybe it won't be the case because it's a cup final rather than a ho-hum-who-cares league match. Maybe it won't be the case with Gerrard playing, either holding behind the attackers, as in the both legs of the Carling Cup semi-final (which remains my template for Liverpool's big game tactics), or roaming behind the striker with two others sitting.
That both of these options have such glaring weaknesses means we might see a curve ball, something similar to the 3-5-2 used at Stamford Bridge last season, but that seems a less likely option simply because the only time it's been used this season was the 0-0 against Stoke at Anfield. Still, there's assuredly a case to be made for an XI of, say, Reina; Skrtel Carragher Agger; Johnson Henderson Spearing Gerrard Enrique; Suarez Carroll.
The other concerns: who plays on the flanks and Carragher. I'm not really concerned by the latter, but I'm mostly just incredulous that he might be an option. Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, and Enrique are all fit. Dalglish has almost always chosen those four when all are fit. The lone exception, the semi-final against Everton, was a different case because it's Everton and because of how Osman played as a "right winger." Ramires (or, less likely, Sturridge or Mata) will play that role somewhat differently. If Liverpool play 3-5-2, he'll play. That makes sense. Carra starting in a center-back pairing with both Agger and Skrtel fit and Drogba likely to start does not.
As for the flanks, it seems an easy answer if Liverpool use a five-man midfield. Downing's been really really really (did I mention really?) terrible lately and Maxi played 90 minutes on Tuesday. That leaves Bellamy and Kuyt. Yet another area where Liverpool aren't exactly overflowing with options. If 4-4-2, it'll probably be Henderson on the right and Bellamy or Downing on the left.
Chelsea, on the other hand, will play 4-2-3-1. Outside of the Barcelona tie, where they were 4-2-3-1 in name only, Di Matteo has rolely deployed that formation. Which is another reason I think Liverpool need three central midfielders. Drogba will play as lone striker, in front of a line of Kalou-Mata-Ramires, with Lampard and Mikel, Essien, or Meireles holding. The back four will be Boswinga, Ivanovic, St John Terry, and Shotgun Cole. Both Cahill and David Luiz remain injured.
So, it's finally here. The match which will define Liverpool's season. Win, and there are arguments that the campaign wasn't so terrible despite the overwhelming terribleness of the league campaign. A domestic cup double cannot be undervalued, no matter how much each competition has been devalued in recent years. Lose and, well, I'd rather not contemplate. It would probably be ugly.
It seems insane that there's so much hanging on one fixture, but insanity has been this season's dominant leitmotif. That it's against that lot, the nouveau riche Evil Empire from South London, is eminently fitting. Liverpool have won five trophies since 2004-05: the 2005 Champions League, the 2005 UEFA Super Cup, the 2006 FA Cup, the 2006 Community Shield, and the 2012 League Cup. They had to beat Chelsea on the path to each of those triumphs.
Monday, April 30, 2012
Liverpool v Fulham 05.01.12
2:45pm ET, live in the US on espn2
Last four head-to-head:
0-1 Fulham (a) 12.05.11
5-2 Liverpool (a) 05.09.11
1-0 Liverpool (h) 01.26.11
0-0 (h) 04.11.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-0 Norwich (a); 0-1 West Brom (h); 2-1 Everton (n)
Fulham: 0-4 Everton (a); 2-1 Wigan (h); 1-1 Chelsea (h)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 11; Bellamy 6; Gerrard 5; Carroll, Maxi 4; Adam, Kuyt, Skrtel 2; Coates, Henderson, Johnson 1
Fulham: Dempsey 16; Pogrebnyak 6; Johnson 3; Duff, Murphy, Ruiz 2; Dembele, Diarra, Sa, Senderos, Sidwell 1
Referee: Lee Probert
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Skrtel Coates Enrique
Henderson Spearing
Kuyt Shelvey Maxi
Carroll
There will be changes. Which, as usual, leads to the question as to how many changes. My guess is "a lot."
There's a long list of players in line to be rested. Gerrard and Agger top that list. Suarez and Johnson aren't far behind. Enrique would be as well if Liverpool had another viable option at left-back; Robinson and Aurelio both seem remote possiblities. Bellamy and Carragher almost assuredly won't start after playing against Norwich, and Downing shouldn't after the performance he delivered. Which seemingly leaves us with the above options.
Even though Carroll missed Saturday's match because of an injury concern, I suspect he'll start tomorrow. I'll be surprised if he's in Saturday's XI, more because of Chelsea's formation and tactics (and Liverpool's "big game" tactics) rather than Carroll's failings. Tomorrow presents a chance to both rest Suarez and give Carroll an opportunity to prove he should play in the cup final.
Fulham will be difficult opponents no matter the line-up Liverpool deploy. Other than the 5-2 mauling during last season's run-in, thanks to Suarez and Maxi's brilliance, they're a team that's given Liverpool problems going back to Benitez's reign. Three points and one place behind Liverpool in the table, Jol's side is capable of excellence, awfulness, and mediocrity. Sometimes within the same match. It's a side that scored six against QPR, five against Newcastle, and five against Wolves – admittedly, all at Craven Cottage – held Chelsea to 1-1 draws both home and away, and were the first to take points off of Manchester City this season. But it's also the same side which were demolished 0-5 at United in December, 0-3 against Swansea a few weeks back, and 0-4 at Everton on Saturday. So, a side as inconsistent as Liverpool, but far more likely to both score and concede more.
And I doubt I need to remind of the reverse fixture, another eminently frustrating Liverpool performance which saw the away side "dominate" but ultimately lose after failing to score, having Spearing sent off (arguably unfairly), and conceding a cheap, late goal to Fulham's top scorer by some distance, Clint Dempsey, who shouldn't have been on the field after head-butting Bellamy earlier in the match.
Fulham's usual formation is 4-4-1-1. Most impressive, at least to me, is the side's versatility within that formation. Dempsey and Dembele – one of my favorite non-Liverpool players in the league – are the keys to that versatility. January signing Pogrebnyak, with six goals in nine appearances, is the usual spearhead, but Dempsey's played up front with Dembele in support in previous matches, often against stronger opposition. Dembele could also play in central midfield or on the flanks, as Dempsey has in previous appearances.
Still, the most likely formation is Pogrebnyak up front, Dempsey in the hole, Dembele and Murphy (or Diarra) in midfield, and Duff and Frei on the flanks. With right-back Stephen Kelly injured, Hughes-Senderos-Hangeland-Riise should be the back four, although Baird could also come in for Senderos, as he did at half-time against Everton. Yep, Fulham's likely XI contains two ex-Liverpool players. That usually ends well. Ruiz, Sidwell, and Grygera are Fulham's other casualties.
Admittedly, with the FA Cup final just over the horizon, my expectations are low for this match. That Liverpool are likely to make a number of chances is actually encouraging, giving players something tangible to play for, hoping to reap the rewards with a place on Saturday rather than having the usual starters going through the motions with all thoughts on Chelsea instead of Fulham.
That both Fulham (and West Brom) are just three points behind Liverpool, albeit with an inferior goal differential, should be further motivation. Points dropped here could propel Liverpool into the bottom half of the table if maximum points aren't taken in the final two matches. No matter the relative unimportance of league place thanks to the previous 35 matches, that remains a bridge too far, one best left uncrossed.
Last four head-to-head:
0-1 Fulham (a) 12.05.11
5-2 Liverpool (a) 05.09.11
1-0 Liverpool (h) 01.26.11
0-0 (h) 04.11.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-0 Norwich (a); 0-1 West Brom (h); 2-1 Everton (n)
Fulham: 0-4 Everton (a); 2-1 Wigan (h); 1-1 Chelsea (h)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 11; Bellamy 6; Gerrard 5; Carroll, Maxi 4; Adam, Kuyt, Skrtel 2; Coates, Henderson, Johnson 1
Fulham: Dempsey 16; Pogrebnyak 6; Johnson 3; Duff, Murphy, Ruiz 2; Dembele, Diarra, Sa, Senderos, Sidwell 1
Referee: Lee Probert
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Kelly Skrtel Coates Enrique
Henderson Spearing
Kuyt Shelvey Maxi
Carroll
There will be changes. Which, as usual, leads to the question as to how many changes. My guess is "a lot."
There's a long list of players in line to be rested. Gerrard and Agger top that list. Suarez and Johnson aren't far behind. Enrique would be as well if Liverpool had another viable option at left-back; Robinson and Aurelio both seem remote possiblities. Bellamy and Carragher almost assuredly won't start after playing against Norwich, and Downing shouldn't after the performance he delivered. Which seemingly leaves us with the above options.
Even though Carroll missed Saturday's match because of an injury concern, I suspect he'll start tomorrow. I'll be surprised if he's in Saturday's XI, more because of Chelsea's formation and tactics (and Liverpool's "big game" tactics) rather than Carroll's failings. Tomorrow presents a chance to both rest Suarez and give Carroll an opportunity to prove he should play in the cup final.
Fulham will be difficult opponents no matter the line-up Liverpool deploy. Other than the 5-2 mauling during last season's run-in, thanks to Suarez and Maxi's brilliance, they're a team that's given Liverpool problems going back to Benitez's reign. Three points and one place behind Liverpool in the table, Jol's side is capable of excellence, awfulness, and mediocrity. Sometimes within the same match. It's a side that scored six against QPR, five against Newcastle, and five against Wolves – admittedly, all at Craven Cottage – held Chelsea to 1-1 draws both home and away, and were the first to take points off of Manchester City this season. But it's also the same side which were demolished 0-5 at United in December, 0-3 against Swansea a few weeks back, and 0-4 at Everton on Saturday. So, a side as inconsistent as Liverpool, but far more likely to both score and concede more.
And I doubt I need to remind of the reverse fixture, another eminently frustrating Liverpool performance which saw the away side "dominate" but ultimately lose after failing to score, having Spearing sent off (arguably unfairly), and conceding a cheap, late goal to Fulham's top scorer by some distance, Clint Dempsey, who shouldn't have been on the field after head-butting Bellamy earlier in the match.
Fulham's usual formation is 4-4-1-1. Most impressive, at least to me, is the side's versatility within that formation. Dempsey and Dembele – one of my favorite non-Liverpool players in the league – are the keys to that versatility. January signing Pogrebnyak, with six goals in nine appearances, is the usual spearhead, but Dempsey's played up front with Dembele in support in previous matches, often against stronger opposition. Dembele could also play in central midfield or on the flanks, as Dempsey has in previous appearances.
Still, the most likely formation is Pogrebnyak up front, Dempsey in the hole, Dembele and Murphy (or Diarra) in midfield, and Duff and Frei on the flanks. With right-back Stephen Kelly injured, Hughes-Senderos-Hangeland-Riise should be the back four, although Baird could also come in for Senderos, as he did at half-time against Everton. Yep, Fulham's likely XI contains two ex-Liverpool players. That usually ends well. Ruiz, Sidwell, and Grygera are Fulham's other casualties.
Admittedly, with the FA Cup final just over the horizon, my expectations are low for this match. That Liverpool are likely to make a number of chances is actually encouraging, giving players something tangible to play for, hoping to reap the rewards with a place on Saturday rather than having the usual starters going through the motions with all thoughts on Chelsea instead of Fulham.
That both Fulham (and West Brom) are just three points behind Liverpool, albeit with an inferior goal differential, should be further motivation. Points dropped here could propel Liverpool into the bottom half of the table if maximum points aren't taken in the final two matches. No matter the relative unimportance of league place thanks to the previous 35 matches, that remains a bridge too far, one best left uncrossed.
Friday, April 27, 2012
Liverpool at Norwich 04.28.12
12:30pm ET, live in the US on FSC
Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (h) 10.22.11
2-1 Liverpool (a) 01.03.05
3-0 Liverpool (h) 09.25.04
2-1 Liverpool (a) 04.29.95
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-1 West Brom (h); 2-1 Everton (n); 3-2 Blackburn (a)
Norwich: 0-2 Blackburn (a); 1-6 City (h); 2-1 Spurs (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 8; Bellamy 6; Gerrard 5; Carroll, Maxi 4; Adam, Kuyt, Skrtel 2; Coates, Henderson, Johnson 1
Norwich: Holt 13; Morison, Pilkington 8; Surman 4; Hoolahan 3; Jackson, Johnson, Martin 2; Barnett, E Bennett, Howson, Wilbraham 1
Referee: Mark Halsey
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Henderson Gerrard Spearing Downing
Suarez Carroll
Yes, yes. Let's get the jokes out of the way now. We all know how this will go. Liverpool will start afire, have three to five outstanding sights at goal, fail to take any of them, succumb to an unlikely goal against the run of play, and maybe maybe maybe battle back for an equalizer, if that, but no more. Everyone laughs, end scene, roll credits. Joy.
That was pretty much Liverpool's previous match against Norwich, except Liverpool scored first, and has pretty much been most matches this season, much to our chagrin. Liverpool wholly dominated the beginning of the reverse fixture, denied by multiple excellent saves and the woodwork, Liverpool finally scored just before half time, but Liverpool failed to extend the advantage. Norwich found an unlikely equalizer when Holt powered Pilkington's cross (plus Johnson and Carra) into the net, and Liverpool struggled until an injury-time flurry, denied a winner by more goalkeeper heroics.
We'll see a glut of changes for the midweek match against Fulham, the one directly prior to the FA Cup Final. This, on the other hand, will most likely be similar to last week's XI against West Brom – probably as strong as possible, with players likely to feature at Wembley.
Gerrard's probable return should see him slot straight back into the middle, probably with Spearing, shifting Henderson to the right with Downing back on the left. Kuyt and Maxi should return to the bench, more likely to play against Fulham. If it's not Henderson and Downing on the flanks, Bellamy seems more probable than either of Liverpool soon-to-be-sold veterans. Once again, I also expect Carroll to partner Suarez. But once again, this is truly a guess at a line-up, as Dalglish continues to tinker with both tactics and formation, even in late April. However, this lopsided 4-4-2 has been the most often used formation.
Norwich, safely ensconced in 13th, well outside the relegation zone, has little to play for other than pride. Just like Liverpool. The Canaries, along with Stoke, are at the bottom of the mid-table pack which Liverpool barely sits near the top of, two points behind 7th place Everton. With safety assured, Norwich have both beaten Tottenham 2-1 at White Hart Lane and lost 1-6 to City on its own ground (or 0-2 to relegation candidates Blackburn) recently. The long season's caught up with Lambert's side in certain matches, losing seven of 11 since mid-February.
Norwich have a couple of injury concerns, two of whom are former Liverpool players. Whitbread and Ayala, frequent starters in defense, will both miss out against their former club, just as both missed the reverse fixture. Left back Tierney is also on the casualty list. Lambert's flexible side will probably play some variation of 4-4-2, whether an orthodox set-up, 4-4-1-1, or 4-1-3-2. The previous meeting was an apt demonstration of how Holt can punish negligent opposition, while Steve Morison has similar qualities and Hoolahan is dangerous between the lines.
If Norwich win tomorrow, they'll be level on points with Liverpool. And Liverpool would probably be in the bottom half of the table, currently level on points with Fulham, only a point ahead of 10th place West Brom and two ahead of 11th place Sunderland. For all the pain of this season's campaign to date, and all the excuses about Liverpool's terrible league form since fourth place became a wholly lost cause, the top half and bottom half represent a clear dividing line, if only mentally. Simply put, while there's little difference in seventh, eighth, or ninth, there's a very large difference between those places and 10th or lower. Even if all the focus is on next Saturday's cup final, Liverpool cannot cross that Rubicon.
Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (h) 10.22.11
2-1 Liverpool (a) 01.03.05
3-0 Liverpool (h) 09.25.04
2-1 Liverpool (a) 04.29.95
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-1 West Brom (h); 2-1 Everton (n); 3-2 Blackburn (a)
Norwich: 0-2 Blackburn (a); 1-6 City (h); 2-1 Spurs (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 8; Bellamy 6; Gerrard 5; Carroll, Maxi 4; Adam, Kuyt, Skrtel 2; Coates, Henderson, Johnson 1
Norwich: Holt 13; Morison, Pilkington 8; Surman 4; Hoolahan 3; Jackson, Johnson, Martin 2; Barnett, E Bennett, Howson, Wilbraham 1
Referee: Mark Halsey
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Henderson Gerrard Spearing Downing
Suarez Carroll
Yes, yes. Let's get the jokes out of the way now. We all know how this will go. Liverpool will start afire, have three to five outstanding sights at goal, fail to take any of them, succumb to an unlikely goal against the run of play, and maybe maybe maybe battle back for an equalizer, if that, but no more. Everyone laughs, end scene, roll credits. Joy.
That was pretty much Liverpool's previous match against Norwich, except Liverpool scored first, and has pretty much been most matches this season, much to our chagrin. Liverpool wholly dominated the beginning of the reverse fixture, denied by multiple excellent saves and the woodwork, Liverpool finally scored just before half time, but Liverpool failed to extend the advantage. Norwich found an unlikely equalizer when Holt powered Pilkington's cross (plus Johnson and Carra) into the net, and Liverpool struggled until an injury-time flurry, denied a winner by more goalkeeper heroics.
We'll see a glut of changes for the midweek match against Fulham, the one directly prior to the FA Cup Final. This, on the other hand, will most likely be similar to last week's XI against West Brom – probably as strong as possible, with players likely to feature at Wembley.
Gerrard's probable return should see him slot straight back into the middle, probably with Spearing, shifting Henderson to the right with Downing back on the left. Kuyt and Maxi should return to the bench, more likely to play against Fulham. If it's not Henderson and Downing on the flanks, Bellamy seems more probable than either of Liverpool soon-to-be-sold veterans. Once again, I also expect Carroll to partner Suarez. But once again, this is truly a guess at a line-up, as Dalglish continues to tinker with both tactics and formation, even in late April. However, this lopsided 4-4-2 has been the most often used formation.
Norwich, safely ensconced in 13th, well outside the relegation zone, has little to play for other than pride. Just like Liverpool. The Canaries, along with Stoke, are at the bottom of the mid-table pack which Liverpool barely sits near the top of, two points behind 7th place Everton. With safety assured, Norwich have both beaten Tottenham 2-1 at White Hart Lane and lost 1-6 to City on its own ground (or 0-2 to relegation candidates Blackburn) recently. The long season's caught up with Lambert's side in certain matches, losing seven of 11 since mid-February.
Norwich have a couple of injury concerns, two of whom are former Liverpool players. Whitbread and Ayala, frequent starters in defense, will both miss out against their former club, just as both missed the reverse fixture. Left back Tierney is also on the casualty list. Lambert's flexible side will probably play some variation of 4-4-2, whether an orthodox set-up, 4-4-1-1, or 4-1-3-2. The previous meeting was an apt demonstration of how Holt can punish negligent opposition, while Steve Morison has similar qualities and Hoolahan is dangerous between the lines.
If Norwich win tomorrow, they'll be level on points with Liverpool. And Liverpool would probably be in the bottom half of the table, currently level on points with Fulham, only a point ahead of 10th place West Brom and two ahead of 11th place Sunderland. For all the pain of this season's campaign to date, and all the excuses about Liverpool's terrible league form since fourth place became a wholly lost cause, the top half and bottom half represent a clear dividing line, if only mentally. Simply put, while there's little difference in seventh, eighth, or ninth, there's a very large difference between those places and 10th or lower. Even if all the focus is on next Saturday's cup final, Liverpool cannot cross that Rubicon.
Friday, April 20, 2012
Liverpool v West Brom 04.22.12
11am ET, live in the US on Fox Soccer Plus
Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (a) 10.29.11
1-2 West Brom (a) 04.02.11
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.29.10
2-0 Liverpool (a) 05.17.09
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Everton (n); 3-2 Blackburn (a); 1-1 Villa (h)
West Brom: 1-0 QPR (h); 0-4 City (a); 3-0 Blackburn (h)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 8; Bellamy 6; Gerrard 5; Carroll, Maxi 4; Adam, Kuyt, Skrtel 2; Coates, Henderson, Johnson 1
West Brom: Odemwingie 9; Long 7; Morrison 4; Scharner 3; Andrews, Dorrans, Fortune, McAuley, Olsson 2; Brunt, Mulumbu, Reid, Ridgewell, Tchoyi, Thomas 1
Referee: Neil Swarbrick
New referee link; all the ref's previous Liverpool matches, via LFCHistory.net. That website never, ever fails to amaze me. But it's somewhat unnecessary for Swarbrick, who's only done one previous Liverpool match: the 5-1 FA Cup win against Oldham in January.
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Downing Gerrard Spearing Maxi
Suarez Carroll
There will have been eight days since the FA Cup semifinal, with another six until Liverpool travel to Norwich. Which means that Dalglish will most likely deploy the strongest possible XI, with little thought for carving out game time for Liverpool's promising youngsters. All focus from now until May 5 will be on keeping key players fit and preparing the side for its crucial FA Cup final, continuing to build confidence and coherence brick by brick.
After scoring the winner in Liverpool's last two matches, Carroll looks certain to start. And when he starts, Liverpool almost always play 4-4-2; the only matches where both he and Suarez started in a three-man front line were at Newcastle, versus Brighton in the FA Cup, at Fulham, and the first 27 minutes of the match at Spurs until Adam was sent off. It's seemingly not an option Dalglish prefers.
So Suarez and Carroll should play up front, Gerrard will play in central midfield, and everyone else will be fit in around those three cornerstones. I'm guessing Downing and Maxi on the flanks because Downing's looked better on the right recently and because of Maxi's goal-scoring exploits against Blackburn. If Downing does play on the right, Bellamy could also get the nod on the left, but Maxi's been in better form in the last two matches. Considering precedent, Downing on the left with Henderson on the right is just as likely, if not more so. Both Maxi and Bellamy started against Blackburn, but Downing seems almost as likely to start as those three aforementioned cornerstones.
I'd also like to see Shelvey paired with Gerrard in the middle; the Spearing-Gerrard axis has infrequently impressed, rarely looking a true partnership, and Jonjo needs game time. But I doubt Dalglish will feel secure without an out-and-out tackler in midfield, even at home against West Brom.
Reina returns from suspension, while we should also see the return of Liverpool's first-choice back four. There's even less of an excuse for Carragher's involvement than last Saturday – and there was little excuse then – while Coates seems unlikely to step in with both Skrtel and Agger fit and rested.
And then there's West Brom. Have you missed Uncle Roy? He hasn't missed you.
Liverpool's six-month Hodgson experiment gave us first-hand experience with how easy it is to guess his side's tactics. West Brom will play either 4-4-2 or 4-1-4-1, deep and compact, with two solid lines of four and an extra man either to congest the middle or bolster the attack. In attack, Odemwingie and/or Long will hope to profit on the counter or from set plays. Hodgson chose 4-4-2 in the reverse fixture, ever the ambitious gambler at home, but Tchoyi was sucked deeper and deeper by Liverpool pressure, isolating Odemwingie, and West Brom rarely troubled after Liverpool scored one of its few early goals this season.
I suspect we'll see his other variation at Anfield, with a packed midfield including three from Andrews, Mulumbu, Dorrans, and Scharner; Brunt and Thomas on the flanks; and one of the aforementioned strikers on his own in Liverpool's half. Hodgson's one curveball has been to sometimes use a striker as a winger – either Odemwingie, Fortune, or Cox – which may well be the case on Sunday since he'll undoubtedly focus on counter-attacking.
West Brom have a few injury concerns, with Marc-Andre Fortune – who has sometimes replaced Long or Odemwingie as the spearhead – will be a late fitness test, along with center-back Olsson, while midfielders Morrison and Gera and right-back Reid are out.
Albion's win over Liverpool last April was the club's first since 1981, made ever so much more painful by who their recently-appointed manager was. Otherwise, historically, this fixture has been an easy three points for the Reds. However, this campaign has proven time and time again that history is often insignificant and little comes easy. Still, easy would be more than welcome. Obviously. Liverpool simply need to keep winning, using the remaining league fixtures to continuing building confidence before the season's capstone in the FA Cup final. But, as we've seen too often this season, Liverpool can't solely focus on the cups to the detriment of the league either. Otherwise, they'll be punished, and not for the first time. It'd be yet another step backward after two steps forwards. And because of the opponent, it'd again be more painful than most of the previous painful punishments.
Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (a) 10.29.11
1-2 West Brom (a) 04.02.11
1-0 Liverpool (h) 08.29.10
2-0 Liverpool (a) 05.17.09
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 2-1 Everton (n); 3-2 Blackburn (a); 1-1 Villa (h)
West Brom: 1-0 QPR (h); 0-4 City (a); 3-0 Blackburn (h)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 8; Bellamy 6; Gerrard 5; Carroll, Maxi 4; Adam, Kuyt, Skrtel 2; Coates, Henderson, Johnson 1
West Brom: Odemwingie 9; Long 7; Morrison 4; Scharner 3; Andrews, Dorrans, Fortune, McAuley, Olsson 2; Brunt, Mulumbu, Reid, Ridgewell, Tchoyi, Thomas 1
Referee: Neil Swarbrick
New referee link; all the ref's previous Liverpool matches, via LFCHistory.net. That website never, ever fails to amaze me. But it's somewhat unnecessary for Swarbrick, who's only done one previous Liverpool match: the 5-1 FA Cup win against Oldham in January.
Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Downing Gerrard Spearing Maxi
Suarez Carroll
There will have been eight days since the FA Cup semifinal, with another six until Liverpool travel to Norwich. Which means that Dalglish will most likely deploy the strongest possible XI, with little thought for carving out game time for Liverpool's promising youngsters. All focus from now until May 5 will be on keeping key players fit and preparing the side for its crucial FA Cup final, continuing to build confidence and coherence brick by brick.
After scoring the winner in Liverpool's last two matches, Carroll looks certain to start. And when he starts, Liverpool almost always play 4-4-2; the only matches where both he and Suarez started in a three-man front line were at Newcastle, versus Brighton in the FA Cup, at Fulham, and the first 27 minutes of the match at Spurs until Adam was sent off. It's seemingly not an option Dalglish prefers.
So Suarez and Carroll should play up front, Gerrard will play in central midfield, and everyone else will be fit in around those three cornerstones. I'm guessing Downing and Maxi on the flanks because Downing's looked better on the right recently and because of Maxi's goal-scoring exploits against Blackburn. If Downing does play on the right, Bellamy could also get the nod on the left, but Maxi's been in better form in the last two matches. Considering precedent, Downing on the left with Henderson on the right is just as likely, if not more so. Both Maxi and Bellamy started against Blackburn, but Downing seems almost as likely to start as those three aforementioned cornerstones.
I'd also like to see Shelvey paired with Gerrard in the middle; the Spearing-Gerrard axis has infrequently impressed, rarely looking a true partnership, and Jonjo needs game time. But I doubt Dalglish will feel secure without an out-and-out tackler in midfield, even at home against West Brom.
Reina returns from suspension, while we should also see the return of Liverpool's first-choice back four. There's even less of an excuse for Carragher's involvement than last Saturday – and there was little excuse then – while Coates seems unlikely to step in with both Skrtel and Agger fit and rested.
And then there's West Brom. Have you missed Uncle Roy? He hasn't missed you.
Liverpool's six-month Hodgson experiment gave us first-hand experience with how easy it is to guess his side's tactics. West Brom will play either 4-4-2 or 4-1-4-1, deep and compact, with two solid lines of four and an extra man either to congest the middle or bolster the attack. In attack, Odemwingie and/or Long will hope to profit on the counter or from set plays. Hodgson chose 4-4-2 in the reverse fixture, ever the ambitious gambler at home, but Tchoyi was sucked deeper and deeper by Liverpool pressure, isolating Odemwingie, and West Brom rarely troubled after Liverpool scored one of its few early goals this season.
I suspect we'll see his other variation at Anfield, with a packed midfield including three from Andrews, Mulumbu, Dorrans, and Scharner; Brunt and Thomas on the flanks; and one of the aforementioned strikers on his own in Liverpool's half. Hodgson's one curveball has been to sometimes use a striker as a winger – either Odemwingie, Fortune, or Cox – which may well be the case on Sunday since he'll undoubtedly focus on counter-attacking.
West Brom have a few injury concerns, with Marc-Andre Fortune – who has sometimes replaced Long or Odemwingie as the spearhead – will be a late fitness test, along with center-back Olsson, while midfielders Morrison and Gera and right-back Reid are out.
Albion's win over Liverpool last April was the club's first since 1981, made ever so much more painful by who their recently-appointed manager was. Otherwise, historically, this fixture has been an easy three points for the Reds. However, this campaign has proven time and time again that history is often insignificant and little comes easy. Still, easy would be more than welcome. Obviously. Liverpool simply need to keep winning, using the remaining league fixtures to continuing building confidence before the season's capstone in the FA Cup final. But, as we've seen too often this season, Liverpool can't solely focus on the cups to the detriment of the league either. Otherwise, they'll be punished, and not for the first time. It'd be yet another step backward after two steps forwards. And because of the opponent, it'd again be more painful than most of the previous painful punishments.
Friday, April 13, 2012
Liverpool v Everton 04.14.12
7:30am ET, live in the US on FSC
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 2-1 Stoke (h); 6-1 Brighton (h); 2-1 United (h); 5-1 Oldham (h)
Everton: 2-0 Sunderland (a); 1-1 Sunderland (h); 2-0 Blackpool (h); 2-1 Fulham (h); 2-0 Tamworth (h)
Last four head-to-head:
3-0 Liverpool (h) 03.13.12
2-0 Liverpool (a) 10.01.11
2-2 (h) 01.16.11
0-2 Everton (a) 10.17.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-2 Blackburn (a); 1-1 Villa (a); 0-2 Newcastle (a)
Everton: 4-0 Sunderland (h); 2-2 Norwich (a); 2-0 West Brom (h)
Goalscorers (all competitions):
Liverpool: Suarez 13; Bellamy 9; Gerrard 8; Carroll 7; Maxi 6; Kuyt 5; Skrtel 4; Adam, Downing 2; Agger, Coates, Henderson, Johnson, Kelly, Shelvey 1
Everton: Anichebe 6; Baines, Jelavic 5; Drenthe, Osman 4; Fellaini, Stracqualursi, Vellios 3; Cahill, Jagielka, Pienaar, Rodwell 2; Gibson, Gueye, Heitinga, Howard, Neville 1
Referee: Howard Webb
Guess at a line-up:
Jones
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Kuyt Gerrard Spearing Downing
Suarez Carroll
So, is it safe to stop Comolli-Cruyff Watch for a day or two?
Because of everything that's come before over the last few months, especially in league fixtures, this is now a season-defining match. It probably would be anyway; it's not often that both Merseyside clubs meet at Wembley for a cup final birth. But Liverpool's campaign has been focused on the cups for a some time now. Which makes it somewhat fitting that the road to the FA Cup is blocked by Liverpool's oldest, nearest, and dearest rivals.
As usual, the biggest guess comes in Liverpool's formation. Will Dalglish line up a 4-4-2, matching Everton's likely set-up, or a 4-2-3-1 with Suarez up front? And as usual, it all depends on Carroll. It'd be strange to see him dropped after Tuesday's immense late winner, more important for the resultant confidence boost than the result, but Dalglish has dropped others after better performances, and Carroll could definitely be fatigued after an hour-plus as a lone striker with the side down to 10 men.
Liverpool have played 4-4-2 with Carroll starting, and effectively at that, in both wins over Everton this season. The above formation is incredibly similar to the team which won convincingly when these sides last met. The only differences in the guessed XI and the one which won on March 13 is Johnson back at right-back and Kuyt in place of Henderson – because it's a big game, against Everton, and it's Dirk Kuyt. The Scourge of the Blues. Maxi missing out after Tuesday's performance seems slightly unfair, but he was clearly tiring by the hour mark and rarely has the legs for consecutive starts.
That Johnson and Agger came out of Tuesday's match unscathed couldn't have come at a better time. Both were handled excellently, prioritizing participation in tomorrow's match: Agger made important sub appearances in Liverpool's last two fixtures, Johnson started 53 good minutes (on the left, no less) against Blackburn. Liverpool's defense has massively missed both, especially the Dane, and Brad Jones will need all the help he can get.
It will be a vastly different Everton side to the one Liverpool beat at Anfield last month. Then as now, Moyes has focused on the FA Cup, understandably so. Pienaar is cup-tied and Rodwell is injured, but Gibson, Heitinga, Neville, Drenthe, Cahill, Osman, and Jelavic – the latter six on the bench for the Anfield meeting – should all start tomorrow.
Of course, Everton rested many of those players for their last league match against Sunderland and won 4-0, with all four goals coming in the second half. The Blues are unbeaten in five, and have lost just twice since January 11 – at Liverpool and Arsenal. Accordingly, given Liverpool's near-mirror image slide over the same time frame, Everton are now 7th in the league, a point ahead of their crosstown rivals.
As much as Everton would like to present otherwise, reveling in the underdog role against Big Bad Liverpool, they have to be the favorites tomorrow. Just look at the clubs' records over the past few months. Then look at the table. That Liverpool won the last two derbies means less than we'd hope: one, because each Derby is its own small self-contained war, and two, because of circumstances in each meeting – Rodwell's harsh red in the first, Everton's weakened XI in the second.
But Liverpool has reveled in the underdog role just as often this season, playing their best football when less-fancied and proactive football is less required. The Liverpool which has lined up in the cups has often been completely different to Liverpool in the league – not in tactics or personnel, but in form and belief – especially since fourth place became a lost cause in late February. And while Liverpool's last two results aren't especially impressive at face value – a home draw and late away win against relegation contenders! – both were important because of the fight needed to earn each result.
For once (well, twice, actually), Liverpool didn't accept unlucky fate, and worked diligently to turn bad fortune around. That type of reaction will be vital against a diligent, fighting opponent such as Everton in such a massively important, season-defining cup tie.
Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 2-1 Stoke (h); 6-1 Brighton (h); 2-1 United (h); 5-1 Oldham (h)
Everton: 2-0 Sunderland (a); 1-1 Sunderland (h); 2-0 Blackpool (h); 2-1 Fulham (h); 2-0 Tamworth (h)
Last four head-to-head:
3-0 Liverpool (h) 03.13.12
2-0 Liverpool (a) 10.01.11
2-2 (h) 01.16.11
0-2 Everton (a) 10.17.10
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-2 Blackburn (a); 1-1 Villa (a); 0-2 Newcastle (a)
Everton: 4-0 Sunderland (h); 2-2 Norwich (a); 2-0 West Brom (h)
Goalscorers (all competitions):
Liverpool: Suarez 13; Bellamy 9; Gerrard 8; Carroll 7; Maxi 6; Kuyt 5; Skrtel 4; Adam, Downing 2; Agger, Coates, Henderson, Johnson, Kelly, Shelvey 1
Everton: Anichebe 6; Baines, Jelavic 5; Drenthe, Osman 4; Fellaini, Stracqualursi, Vellios 3; Cahill, Jagielka, Pienaar, Rodwell 2; Gibson, Gueye, Heitinga, Howard, Neville 1
Referee: Howard Webb
Guess at a line-up:
Jones
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Kuyt Gerrard Spearing Downing
Suarez Carroll
So, is it safe to stop Comolli-Cruyff Watch for a day or two?
Because of everything that's come before over the last few months, especially in league fixtures, this is now a season-defining match. It probably would be anyway; it's not often that both Merseyside clubs meet at Wembley for a cup final birth. But Liverpool's campaign has been focused on the cups for a some time now. Which makes it somewhat fitting that the road to the FA Cup is blocked by Liverpool's oldest, nearest, and dearest rivals.
As usual, the biggest guess comes in Liverpool's formation. Will Dalglish line up a 4-4-2, matching Everton's likely set-up, or a 4-2-3-1 with Suarez up front? And as usual, it all depends on Carroll. It'd be strange to see him dropped after Tuesday's immense late winner, more important for the resultant confidence boost than the result, but Dalglish has dropped others after better performances, and Carroll could definitely be fatigued after an hour-plus as a lone striker with the side down to 10 men.
Liverpool have played 4-4-2 with Carroll starting, and effectively at that, in both wins over Everton this season. The above formation is incredibly similar to the team which won convincingly when these sides last met. The only differences in the guessed XI and the one which won on March 13 is Johnson back at right-back and Kuyt in place of Henderson – because it's a big game, against Everton, and it's Dirk Kuyt. The Scourge of the Blues. Maxi missing out after Tuesday's performance seems slightly unfair, but he was clearly tiring by the hour mark and rarely has the legs for consecutive starts.
That Johnson and Agger came out of Tuesday's match unscathed couldn't have come at a better time. Both were handled excellently, prioritizing participation in tomorrow's match: Agger made important sub appearances in Liverpool's last two fixtures, Johnson started 53 good minutes (on the left, no less) against Blackburn. Liverpool's defense has massively missed both, especially the Dane, and Brad Jones will need all the help he can get.
It will be a vastly different Everton side to the one Liverpool beat at Anfield last month. Then as now, Moyes has focused on the FA Cup, understandably so. Pienaar is cup-tied and Rodwell is injured, but Gibson, Heitinga, Neville, Drenthe, Cahill, Osman, and Jelavic – the latter six on the bench for the Anfield meeting – should all start tomorrow.
Of course, Everton rested many of those players for their last league match against Sunderland and won 4-0, with all four goals coming in the second half. The Blues are unbeaten in five, and have lost just twice since January 11 – at Liverpool and Arsenal. Accordingly, given Liverpool's near-mirror image slide over the same time frame, Everton are now 7th in the league, a point ahead of their crosstown rivals.
As much as Everton would like to present otherwise, reveling in the underdog role against Big Bad Liverpool, they have to be the favorites tomorrow. Just look at the clubs' records over the past few months. Then look at the table. That Liverpool won the last two derbies means less than we'd hope: one, because each Derby is its own small self-contained war, and two, because of circumstances in each meeting – Rodwell's harsh red in the first, Everton's weakened XI in the second.
But Liverpool has reveled in the underdog role just as often this season, playing their best football when less-fancied and proactive football is less required. The Liverpool which has lined up in the cups has often been completely different to Liverpool in the league – not in tactics or personnel, but in form and belief – especially since fourth place became a lost cause in late February. And while Liverpool's last two results aren't especially impressive at face value – a home draw and late away win against relegation contenders! – both were important because of the fight needed to earn each result.
For once (well, twice, actually), Liverpool didn't accept unlucky fate, and worked diligently to turn bad fortune around. That type of reaction will be vital against a diligent, fighting opponent such as Everton in such a massively important, season-defining cup tie.
Monday, April 9, 2012
Liverpool at Blackburn 04.10.12
3pm ET, live in the US on FSC
FYI: For the second time in the last three matches, I'll have to miss this game due to prior commitments. Unlike the Newcastle abomination, I'll have a review up later in the evening. Just no live tweets or semi-immediate match write-up. This is what this season has done to me; I honestly forgot Liverpool were playing when scheduling a meeting. Whoops.
Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (h) 12.26.11
1-3 Blackburn (a) 02.12.11
2-1 Liverpool (h) 11.10.10
2-1 Liverpool (h) 03.08.09
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Villa (h); 0-2 Newcastle (a); 1-2 Wigan (h)
Blackburn: 0-3 West Brom (a); 0-2 United (h); 1-2 Bolton (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 8; Bellamy 6; Gerrard 5; Carroll 3; Adam, Kuyt, Maxi, Skrtel 2; Coates, Henderson, Johnson 1
Blackburn: Yakubu 14; Hoilett 6; Formica, Pedersen 3; Dunn, Goodwillie, Nzonzi, Rochina 2; Dann, Hanley, Vukcevic 1
Referee: Anthony Taylor
Guess at a line-up:
Doni
Flanagan Skrtel Agger Aurelio
Henderson Shelvey Spearing Downing
Suarez Carroll
How much will Liverpool change its lineup with Saturday's semifinal just over the horizon?
Granted, Liverpool have changed its lineup (and formation) with little rhyme or reason this season, whether there's been another match three days or a week later, whether the team's played well or poorly in the previous outing. Accordingly, Dalglish said in pre-match quotes that the team selection will be a late decision.
So, my convoluted selection logic from back to front. Doni's an obvious starter during Reina's suspension; that one costly flap shouldn't allow Brad Jones to sneak in. Flanagan still appears to be the only fit right back. Skrtel rarely needs rest and Agger needs game time. Enrique, on the other hand, has seen his form drop precipitously of late, and might well be replaced by Aurelio, if possible. Agger at left-back, where he played as a substitute on Saturday, isn't outside the realm of possibility either.
It's near-impossible to gauge without seeing training or fitness tests, but Gerrard seems one of a few who should definitely be rested, having played the last seven since missing the Arsenal match, one of just two matches he's missed since returning from injury in the reverse fixture on Boxing Day (the other was the 3-0 win at Wolves). Without Gerrard out, Liverpool would be limited to Henderson, Shelvey, and Spearing in midfield, with the former likely to play on the right if Liverpool revert to the 4-4-2, partly because of Dalglish's preference for a lopsided formation and partly because Kuyt is far more likely to start against Everton.
Carroll should also come back in after his relegation to the bench against Villa, while Suarez could be another who's rested for the weekend, with Bellamy starting in his place. But Suarez rarely misses games due to fatigue, and had the added benefit of an unscheduled winter break. Plus, the last time we saw the Carroll-Bellamy pairing was at Bolton, a memory few will treasure. Suarez and Carroll started up front when these sides last met, with Henderson and Adam in midfield because of a lack of options and Downing and Maxi on the flanks. Despite Maxi's usual quiet influence, I'd be surprised if he featured here, again because of his more-than-likely exit at the end of the season.
Blackburn, currently in 18th on goal difference, almost always play 4-4-1-1, with Hoilett or Dunn behind top-scorer Yakubu. Chances are tomorrow's lineup will mirror that deployed in the 0-2 home loss against United a week ago: Robinson; Orr, Dann, Hanley, Olsson; Pedersen, Nzonzi, Lowe, Olsson; Hoilett; Yakubu. Both strikers will probably be isolated for long stretches, but both are able to conjure something from nothing: Hoilett with his pace, Yakubu with his strength and experience. Blackburn are also dangerous on set plays, where Liverpool have conceded slightly less than a quarter of their goals, including in the reverse fixture (albeit from an Adam own goal). Both center-backs are excellent in the air, as is Yakubu, while Pedersen is outstanding from direct strikes. Other than long-term casualties Salgado and Grella, Rovers have no injury concerns.
Saturday's draw against Villa was quite similar to the last meeting between Liverpool and Blackburn, the sixth of Liverpool's nine infuriating home draws. Liverpool as the "better" side, but conceding an unlikely first on an aberrant attack, struggling for an equalizer, and advancing no further. Of course, that's similar to more than a few results this season.
Given Liverpool's fortunes against the bottom quarter of the table – v Villa, at Bolton, at QPR, home and away against Wigan, and, yes, home to Blackburn – this match is arguably more frightening than Saturday's much more important fixture. Liverpool have handed out so many free points to Blackburn's relegation rivals that it'll feel almost unfair if they don't do the same for Rovers.
After Everton's demolition of Sunderland today, Liverpool are four points behind the Toffees in eighth, only ahead of Norwich on goal difference. And if Fulham somehow beat Chelsea later today, they'll be in ninth, just a point and goal difference away from the bottom half of the table. Admittedly, the only difference in seventh and tenth is in morale – the pay-outs, the only tangible reward at this point, are nearly identical – but Liverpool's biggest problem has often been morale. After such an interminable stretch of poor form and results, Liverpool simply need to start winning. Simply. Ha. But both good and bad results lend to a self-perpetuating cycle and, after an infinitesimally heartening "comeback" on Saturday, Liverpool need to get on one of the good cycles for a change.
FYI: For the second time in the last three matches, I'll have to miss this game due to prior commitments. Unlike the Newcastle abomination, I'll have a review up later in the evening. Just no live tweets or semi-immediate match write-up. This is what this season has done to me; I honestly forgot Liverpool were playing when scheduling a meeting. Whoops.
Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (h) 12.26.11
1-3 Blackburn (a) 02.12.11
2-1 Liverpool (h) 11.10.10
2-1 Liverpool (h) 03.08.09
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 1-1 Villa (h); 0-2 Newcastle (a); 1-2 Wigan (h)
Blackburn: 0-3 West Brom (a); 0-2 United (h); 1-2 Bolton (a)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 8; Bellamy 6; Gerrard 5; Carroll 3; Adam, Kuyt, Maxi, Skrtel 2; Coates, Henderson, Johnson 1
Blackburn: Yakubu 14; Hoilett 6; Formica, Pedersen 3; Dunn, Goodwillie, Nzonzi, Rochina 2; Dann, Hanley, Vukcevic 1
Referee: Anthony Taylor
Guess at a line-up:
Doni
Flanagan Skrtel Agger Aurelio
Henderson Shelvey Spearing Downing
Suarez Carroll
How much will Liverpool change its lineup with Saturday's semifinal just over the horizon?
Granted, Liverpool have changed its lineup (and formation) with little rhyme or reason this season, whether there's been another match three days or a week later, whether the team's played well or poorly in the previous outing. Accordingly, Dalglish said in pre-match quotes that the team selection will be a late decision.
So, my convoluted selection logic from back to front. Doni's an obvious starter during Reina's suspension; that one costly flap shouldn't allow Brad Jones to sneak in. Flanagan still appears to be the only fit right back. Skrtel rarely needs rest and Agger needs game time. Enrique, on the other hand, has seen his form drop precipitously of late, and might well be replaced by Aurelio, if possible. Agger at left-back, where he played as a substitute on Saturday, isn't outside the realm of possibility either.
It's near-impossible to gauge without seeing training or fitness tests, but Gerrard seems one of a few who should definitely be rested, having played the last seven since missing the Arsenal match, one of just two matches he's missed since returning from injury in the reverse fixture on Boxing Day (the other was the 3-0 win at Wolves). Without Gerrard out, Liverpool would be limited to Henderson, Shelvey, and Spearing in midfield, with the former likely to play on the right if Liverpool revert to the 4-4-2, partly because of Dalglish's preference for a lopsided formation and partly because Kuyt is far more likely to start against Everton.
Carroll should also come back in after his relegation to the bench against Villa, while Suarez could be another who's rested for the weekend, with Bellamy starting in his place. But Suarez rarely misses games due to fatigue, and had the added benefit of an unscheduled winter break. Plus, the last time we saw the Carroll-Bellamy pairing was at Bolton, a memory few will treasure. Suarez and Carroll started up front when these sides last met, with Henderson and Adam in midfield because of a lack of options and Downing and Maxi on the flanks. Despite Maxi's usual quiet influence, I'd be surprised if he featured here, again because of his more-than-likely exit at the end of the season.
Blackburn, currently in 18th on goal difference, almost always play 4-4-1-1, with Hoilett or Dunn behind top-scorer Yakubu. Chances are tomorrow's lineup will mirror that deployed in the 0-2 home loss against United a week ago: Robinson; Orr, Dann, Hanley, Olsson; Pedersen, Nzonzi, Lowe, Olsson; Hoilett; Yakubu. Both strikers will probably be isolated for long stretches, but both are able to conjure something from nothing: Hoilett with his pace, Yakubu with his strength and experience. Blackburn are also dangerous on set plays, where Liverpool have conceded slightly less than a quarter of their goals, including in the reverse fixture (albeit from an Adam own goal). Both center-backs are excellent in the air, as is Yakubu, while Pedersen is outstanding from direct strikes. Other than long-term casualties Salgado and Grella, Rovers have no injury concerns.
Saturday's draw against Villa was quite similar to the last meeting between Liverpool and Blackburn, the sixth of Liverpool's nine infuriating home draws. Liverpool as the "better" side, but conceding an unlikely first on an aberrant attack, struggling for an equalizer, and advancing no further. Of course, that's similar to more than a few results this season.
Given Liverpool's fortunes against the bottom quarter of the table – v Villa, at Bolton, at QPR, home and away against Wigan, and, yes, home to Blackburn – this match is arguably more frightening than Saturday's much more important fixture. Liverpool have handed out so many free points to Blackburn's relegation rivals that it'll feel almost unfair if they don't do the same for Rovers.
After Everton's demolition of Sunderland today, Liverpool are four points behind the Toffees in eighth, only ahead of Norwich on goal difference. And if Fulham somehow beat Chelsea later today, they'll be in ninth, just a point and goal difference away from the bottom half of the table. Admittedly, the only difference in seventh and tenth is in morale – the pay-outs, the only tangible reward at this point, are nearly identical – but Liverpool's biggest problem has often been morale. After such an interminable stretch of poor form and results, Liverpool simply need to start winning. Simply. Ha. But both good and bad results lend to a self-perpetuating cycle and, after an infinitesimally heartening "comeback" on Saturday, Liverpool need to get on one of the good cycles for a change.
Friday, April 6, 2012
Liverpool v Aston Villa 04.07.12
10am ET, live in the US on Fox Soccer Plus
Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (a) 12.18.11
0-1 Villa (a) 05.22.11
3-0 Liverpool (h) 12.06.10
1-0 Liverpool (a) 12.29.09
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-2 Newcastle (a); 1-2 Wigan (h); 2-3 QPR (a)
Villa: 2-4 Chelsea (h); 0-3 Arsenal (a); 1-0 Fulham (h)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 8; Bellamy 6; Gerrard 5; Carroll 3; Adam, Kuyt, Maxi, Skrtel 2; Coates, Henderson, Johnson 1
Villa: Bent 9, Agbonlahor 5; Petrov 4; Keane 3; Albrighton, N'Zogbia 2; Bannan, Collins, Dunne, Heskey, Ireland, Lichaj, Warnock, Weimann 1
Referee: Michael Oliver
Guess at a line-up:
Doni
Flanagan Skrtel Carragher Enrique
Gerrard Spearing
Downing Shelvey Bellamy
Suarez
I don't really want to see Suarez as a lone striker again, but I also don't expect Carroll to start after Sunday's display. Unless Carroll has been pulling up trees in training all week, I suspect he'll be left on the bench because of his dive, because of his reaction to be substituted, and because of his otherwise unimpressive overall display. Punishing a striker who's biggest problem is confidence may not be the healthiest tact, but last week's display deserves some sort of reaction.
Kuyt may replace Carroll in a straight swap, and Liverpool has usually been more effective when playing 4-4-2, but this seems another potential opportunity for Jonjo Shelvey, who has to have been kept around for a reason. Just like the reverse fixture was an opportunity for Shelvey.
Liverpool deployed a similar formation in the reverse fixture, with Shelvey lurking behind Suarez with Downing and Bellamy on either side. However, Liverpool didn't win because of a rare start for Shelvey or the rarely-seen formation. Both goals came from set plays, both corners, and early corners at that. It was the definition of winning the game by converting early chances, taking advantage of the fast start for a change, something Liverpool haven't done anywhere near enough. The subsequent 70 minutes was spent smothering a stale Villa into further submission.
As usual, Downing, Bellamy, Kuyt, and Henderson are the options on the flanks, in order of likelihood of starting. Gerrard and Spearing seemingly have to be the central midfield duo despite neither impressing against Newcastle. Henderson could also come in here, but the above formation – if used – doesn't really support the youngster's talents; he won't play wide in a 4-2-3-1, Shelvey would take up his more natural position as an attacking midfielder, and he doesn't provide enough of that ephemeral "steel" when sitting deeper in midfield. Henderson and Adam started in central midfield in the last meeting because Liverpool had no other options; Gerrard was injured, Spearing suspended. So unless Gerrard really needs a rest, which isn't outside the realm of possibility, I'd be surprised to see Henderson.
Neither Agger, Kelly, or Johnson will be available yet, and Dalglish has said that Agger will be the first to return. That Doni will be forced into his first competitive start is yet another reason why Dalglish will continue to pick Carragher over Coates – experience! – but I'm still part of the overwhelming chorus who'd prefer the Uruguayan. At least Carragher played at left CB against Newcastle, allowing Skrtel to switch back to the right, where he's far more comfortable. Fat lot of good it did, mind.
With one win in their last nine, Villa are actually on a worse run than coming into the reverse fixture. They were 10th when these sides last met, now 15th, just five points outside the relegation zone. However, it's hard to believe the Midlands club will play as insipidly as they did in December, which was one of Liverpool's easiest wins of the season. Despite losing, last week's match against Chelsea showed some promise, coming back from two-down before two late goals (including one from some guy named Torres) doomed any hope of a battling upset.
Villa has one of the longest casualty lists in the league, and it's little surprise that a downswing in form came at the same time Darren Bent has been injured and Robbie Keane returned to MLS. Dunne, Delph, Cuellar, Clark, and N'Zogbia are also out, while club captain Stiliyan Petrov was sadly diagnosed with leukemia recently. That's two first-choice defenders, three first-choice midfielders, and the club's top scorer/record signing definitely absent. Ouch. Young striker Weimann and right back Hutton will also be late fitness tests, with the latter supposedly more likely to be available.
Which means Villa are probably lucky to be facing Liverpool, one of the few sides in worse form than they are. You all know the depressing stats by now. Three consecutive losses, six losses in seven, eight points from a potential 36 won since New Year's Day. Indescribably terrible and terrifying. Not to sound both Pollyannaish and like a broken record, but Liverpool seemingly have to come good sooner or later. This team has many obviously apparent issues: form, confidence, tactics, etc. But it is still vastly better than the dross we've been treated to lately.
Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (a) 12.18.11
0-1 Villa (a) 05.22.11
3-0 Liverpool (h) 12.06.10
1-0 Liverpool (a) 12.29.09
Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-2 Newcastle (a); 1-2 Wigan (h); 2-3 QPR (a)
Villa: 2-4 Chelsea (h); 0-3 Arsenal (a); 1-0 Fulham (h)
Goalscorers (league):
Liverpool: Suarez 8; Bellamy 6; Gerrard 5; Carroll 3; Adam, Kuyt, Maxi, Skrtel 2; Coates, Henderson, Johnson 1
Villa: Bent 9, Agbonlahor 5; Petrov 4; Keane 3; Albrighton, N'Zogbia 2; Bannan, Collins, Dunne, Heskey, Ireland, Lichaj, Warnock, Weimann 1
Referee: Michael Oliver
Guess at a line-up:
Doni
Flanagan Skrtel Carragher Enrique
Gerrard Spearing
Downing Shelvey Bellamy
Suarez
I don't really want to see Suarez as a lone striker again, but I also don't expect Carroll to start after Sunday's display. Unless Carroll has been pulling up trees in training all week, I suspect he'll be left on the bench because of his dive, because of his reaction to be substituted, and because of his otherwise unimpressive overall display. Punishing a striker who's biggest problem is confidence may not be the healthiest tact, but last week's display deserves some sort of reaction.
Kuyt may replace Carroll in a straight swap, and Liverpool has usually been more effective when playing 4-4-2, but this seems another potential opportunity for Jonjo Shelvey, who has to have been kept around for a reason. Just like the reverse fixture was an opportunity for Shelvey.
Liverpool deployed a similar formation in the reverse fixture, with Shelvey lurking behind Suarez with Downing and Bellamy on either side. However, Liverpool didn't win because of a rare start for Shelvey or the rarely-seen formation. Both goals came from set plays, both corners, and early corners at that. It was the definition of winning the game by converting early chances, taking advantage of the fast start for a change, something Liverpool haven't done anywhere near enough. The subsequent 70 minutes was spent smothering a stale Villa into further submission.
As usual, Downing, Bellamy, Kuyt, and Henderson are the options on the flanks, in order of likelihood of starting. Gerrard and Spearing seemingly have to be the central midfield duo despite neither impressing against Newcastle. Henderson could also come in here, but the above formation – if used – doesn't really support the youngster's talents; he won't play wide in a 4-2-3-1, Shelvey would take up his more natural position as an attacking midfielder, and he doesn't provide enough of that ephemeral "steel" when sitting deeper in midfield. Henderson and Adam started in central midfield in the last meeting because Liverpool had no other options; Gerrard was injured, Spearing suspended. So unless Gerrard really needs a rest, which isn't outside the realm of possibility, I'd be surprised to see Henderson.
Neither Agger, Kelly, or Johnson will be available yet, and Dalglish has said that Agger will be the first to return. That Doni will be forced into his first competitive start is yet another reason why Dalglish will continue to pick Carragher over Coates – experience! – but I'm still part of the overwhelming chorus who'd prefer the Uruguayan. At least Carragher played at left CB against Newcastle, allowing Skrtel to switch back to the right, where he's far more comfortable. Fat lot of good it did, mind.
With one win in their last nine, Villa are actually on a worse run than coming into the reverse fixture. They were 10th when these sides last met, now 15th, just five points outside the relegation zone. However, it's hard to believe the Midlands club will play as insipidly as they did in December, which was one of Liverpool's easiest wins of the season. Despite losing, last week's match against Chelsea showed some promise, coming back from two-down before two late goals (including one from some guy named Torres) doomed any hope of a battling upset.
Villa has one of the longest casualty lists in the league, and it's little surprise that a downswing in form came at the same time Darren Bent has been injured and Robbie Keane returned to MLS. Dunne, Delph, Cuellar, Clark, and N'Zogbia are also out, while club captain Stiliyan Petrov was sadly diagnosed with leukemia recently. That's two first-choice defenders, three first-choice midfielders, and the club's top scorer/record signing definitely absent. Ouch. Young striker Weimann and right back Hutton will also be late fitness tests, with the latter supposedly more likely to be available.
Which means Villa are probably lucky to be facing Liverpool, one of the few sides in worse form than they are. You all know the depressing stats by now. Three consecutive losses, six losses in seven, eight points from a potential 36 won since New Year's Day. Indescribably terrible and terrifying. Not to sound both Pollyannaish and like a broken record, but Liverpool seemingly have to come good sooner or later. This team has many obviously apparent issues: form, confidence, tactics, etc. But it is still vastly better than the dross we've been treated to lately.
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