Liverpool 1-2 Chelsea

Goals:
Ramires 11'
Drogba 53'
Carroll 65'

So close, yet so far. The Liverpool of old threatened to reappear, but fell just short of another fabled cup final comeback. By millimeters, and "aided" by the woodwork. Just not good enough to make up for self-inflicted mistakes, both individual and tactical, but painfully, frustratingly close. This season could barely be better encapsulated. And the universe has a very long memory; what feels like eons since Garcia's "ghost goal" seems like seconds to the cosmos. The cosmos want to be balanced.

Maybe Liverpool should have played 4-4-2 after all, eh? They couldn't make up for the first hour's hapless errors and general impotence with a furious final thirty minutes.

As threatened, easily predictable, it was always going to be a game decided by the narrowest of margins. An unsurprisingly cagey start, then Liverpool's first mistake ruthlessly punished, with additional credit to poor defending. Spearing with a defenseless giveaway, Enrique beaten for pace, positioning, and strength, Reina failing to adequately protect his near post, one of the goalkeeper's cardinal sins. A trilogy of error, each slightly less infuriating than the initial mistake, but with none involved covering themselves in glory.

It was inauspicious, to say the least, and rendered Liverpool's deep, patient tactics rather moot. Tactics which were flawed in the first place with Bellamy and Downing as orthodox wingers but refusing to stretch the full-backs wide, leaving Suarez supremely isolated as Gerrard also played deeper and deeper in an effort to have the ball more often. Liverpool's lone first-half chance to equalize came three minutes after Chelsea's opener, when Bellamy's shot was blocked after Johnson's clever turn and cross fell to his feet. At the other end, Reina nearly fumbled Ramires' cross-turned-shot, Kalou's run through Liverpool's defense required a last-ditch tackle from Agger, and Drogba and Lampard tested their luck, albeit poorly, from distance.

However, after a switch to a 4-4-2ish formation around the half-hour – with Henderson on the right, Downing on the left, and Bellamy and Suarez interchangeably playing as a support striker – Liverpool began to settle into ineffective possession, usually on the ball but without truly threatening Chelsea, happy to settle into defensive positions, protect the lead, and look to counter-attack with Liverpool mostly harmless and increasingly desperate.

It took Chelsea scoring a second to wake Liverpool up, an awakening clearly aided by Dalglish's immediate replacement of Spearing with Carroll. But before, the ball came straight back at Liverpool after Spearing's brainless, aimless clearance, Lampard jinked around the same scapegoat as if he wasn't there and fed Drogba, perfectly placed between Skrtel and Johnson and perfectly placing his shot low into the far corner.

Today's sole consolation and rued missed opportunity came immediately after. Liverpool looked a wholly different, wholly better side with Carroll joining Suarez in attack, and the removal of poor Spearing. Giving Suarez support, now no longer running in vain after lost causes, finally unsettled Chelsea, whose defense couldn't have had an easier task until then. And ten minutes later, Liverpool pulled one back through the substitute: Downing won the ball back in the final third, his tackle timed perfectly and falling to a just-onside Carroll, who cleverly danced around Terry and blasted unstoppably over Cech. Game on.

And it remahned game on, as if the pitch had completely seesawed. Liverpool had near-total possession, wave after wave of chaotic red falling at deep blue back lines. But game-changing Carroll couldn't get headers won on target, Cech saved Suarez's low shot, and Henderson blasted over from range after yet another Carroll knockdown.

Then, the heart-stopping, arguably karmic moment. Downing, Enrique, Downing, Gerrard, Suarez, Gerrard quickly shifting play from left to right, getting the Chelsea defense moving out of its comfortable positions. Gerrard's ball to the flank putting Johnson one-on-one with Cole, cutting inside, running across the top of the box before handing off to Suarez, who took one stride then fired a perfect chipped cross to an open Carroll four yards out. I don't know how Cech prevented the equalizer. Maybe his save came just over the goal-line; it was impossible to conclusively judge from the replays. But he saved it, pushing it onto the bar, and it dropped onto the goal line and out. Carroll, Suarez, and Kuyt wheeled away in celebration, but the linesman didn't give it. Even if, at best, he wasn't sure – and we weren't sure after replays – he can't give it. But it makes it that much more painful, especially given the congruence with the Garcia goal that announced Liverpool's re-arrival to the game's top echelon. It's also yet another argument for goal line technology, but that's a futile argument for another day.

That was the stomach punch. Liverpool had half chances, but had to have known they'd probably see none better. Pressure remained mounted, but was limited to corners, a free kick into the wall, and Carroll caught in two minds when released by Suarez, with the resulting shot-slash-cross blocked by Lampard. The whistle blew, Liverpool players slumped to the turf, with Chelsea keeping the ball penned in Liverpool's end.

Now, this season will be remembered for a league cup and the shittiest league campaign in ages. At least today ended with an "almost came back like the Liverpool we know in cup finals" bang rather than the threatened-for-an-hour whimper. Sadly, that's not good enough. Not good enough in a cup final, and especially not good enough given the dross that's been the majority of this season's campaign. The dominant memory will still be the loss, not the almost-comeback, and it'll be a distant third memory behind the league and league cup, in that order.

Winning today certainly wouldn't have cured Liverpool's multiple problems or dimmed the multiple, rightful complaints over what came before. But it's hard to argue with a domestic cup double, something that's only been done by three sides since the League Cup's creation in 1960. Eighth place, probably at best, and a Carling Cup win is a mid-table side's campaign. No one remembers the losers. And we're all frightened of a mid-table future.

I'll still argue that Liverpool's better than they appear on first glance; there has been bad, a lot of bad, but the bad's obscured the few rays of optimism. Nonetheless, even in the most forgiving appraisals, Liverpool have a long, difficult road ahead, one without the comfort of two cups.

Liverpool v Chelsea 05.05.12

12:15pm ET, live in the US on FSC

Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (a; Carling Cup) 11.29.11
2-1 Liverpool (a) 11.20.11
1-0 Liverpool (a) 02.06.11
2-0 Liverpool (h) 11.07.10

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 0-1 Fulham (a); 3-0 Norwich (a); 0-1 West Brom (h)
Chelsea: 0-2 Newcastle (h); 6-1 QPR (h); 2-2 Barcelona (a)

Goalscorers (all):
Liverpool: Suarez 17; Bellamy 9; Carroll, Gerrard 8; Maxi 6; Kuyt 5; Skrtel 4; Adam, Downing 2; Agger, Coates, Henderson, Johnson, Kelly, Shelvey 1
Chelsea: Lampard 16; Sturridge 13; Mata 12; Drogba, Torres 11; Ramires 10; Terry 6; Ivanovic, Kalou, Meireles 5; Luiz, Malouda 3; Cahill 2; Boswinga 1

Referee: Phil Dowd



Guess at a line-up:
Reina
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Henderson Spearing
Kuyt Gerrard Bellamy
Suarez

For those who think formation doesn't matter, that the tactical eggheads who reduce the game to numbers and minutiae are ruining the fun for normal people, well, you're wrong. It matters very much, especially in a match like Liverpool against Chelsea, no matter either's form, and especially in a cup final – matches which are usually decided by minutiae.

I honestly don't know whether Liverpool will play two up front or three in midfield. And the choice will probably define proceedings.

Since Adam's injury, Liverpool have usually been better with Suarez and Carroll up top. Both matches against Everton and Stoke in the FA Cup, most notably. Despite the strike partnership's two-steps-forward-three-steps-back evolution, Liverpool look more threatening with both Suarez and Carroll on the pitch, no matter any subsequent weakening in the middle. And honestly, in most matches, Liverpool's had weaknesses in the middle no matter the formation.

However, the "big game" template – at Chelsea in the league, both legs against City in the Carling Cup semi, both matches against Arsenal, and all three against United – has been a five-man midfield and a lone striker. All of those matches took place before Adam's season-ending injury. Do Liverpool now have the central midfielders to play 4-2-3-1?

Well, the short answer is Liverpool don't really have the midfielders to play either 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1. I know, that never looked likely in August. But that sort of postmortem can wait another couple of weeks. Each formation would have detriments and positives. The goal, obviously, is picking the one with more of the latter than the former.

There are still, always, questions over Gerrard in a 4-4-2, no matter if he's paired with Henderson, Shelvey, or Spearing. But is adding another of those three to make a three-man midfield really the best solution? Maybe I'm just biased by what we had to sit through on Tuesday. Henderson did not look good, removed after 45 minutes. Shelvey looked marginally better, but "good" remains a bridge too far. Spearing was approximately the absolute opposite of good. Maybe this won't be the case with a stronger XI. Maybe it won't be the case because it's a cup final rather than a ho-hum-who-cares league match. Maybe it won't be the case with Gerrard playing, either holding behind the attackers, as in the both legs of the Carling Cup semi-final (which remains my template for Liverpool's big game tactics), or roaming behind the striker with two others sitting.

That both of these options have such glaring weaknesses means we might see a curve ball, something similar to the 3-5-2 used at Stamford Bridge last season, but that seems a less likely option simply because the only time it's been used this season was the 0-0 against Stoke at Anfield. Still, there's assuredly a case to be made for an XI of, say, Reina; Skrtel Carragher Agger; Johnson Henderson Spearing Gerrard Enrique; Suarez Carroll.

The other concerns: who plays on the flanks and Carragher. I'm not really concerned by the latter, but I'm mostly just incredulous that he might be an option. Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, and Enrique are all fit. Dalglish has almost always chosen those four when all are fit. The lone exception, the semi-final against Everton, was a different case because it's Everton and because of how Osman played as a "right winger." Ramires (or, less likely, Sturridge or Mata) will play that role somewhat differently. If Liverpool play 3-5-2, he'll play. That makes sense. Carra starting in a center-back pairing with both Agger and Skrtel fit and Drogba likely to start does not.

As for the flanks, it seems an easy answer if Liverpool use a five-man midfield. Downing's been really really really (did I mention really?) terrible lately and Maxi played 90 minutes on Tuesday. That leaves Bellamy and Kuyt. Yet another area where Liverpool aren't exactly overflowing with options. If 4-4-2, it'll probably be Henderson on the right and Bellamy or Downing on the left.

Chelsea, on the other hand, will play 4-2-3-1. Outside of the Barcelona tie, where they were 4-2-3-1 in name only, Di Matteo has rolely deployed that formation. Which is another reason I think Liverpool need three central midfielders. Drogba will play as lone striker, in front of a line of Kalou-Mata-Ramires, with Lampard and Mikel, Essien, or Meireles holding. The back four will be Boswinga, Ivanovic, St John Terry, and Shotgun Cole. Both Cahill and David Luiz remain injured.

So, it's finally here. The match which will define Liverpool's season. Win, and there are arguments that the campaign wasn't so terrible despite the overwhelming terribleness of the league campaign. A domestic cup double cannot be undervalued, no matter how much each competition has been devalued in recent years. Lose and, well, I'd rather not contemplate. It would probably be ugly.

It seems insane that there's so much hanging on one fixture, but insanity has been this season's dominant leitmotif. That it's against that lot, the nouveau riche Evil Empire from South London, is eminently fitting. Liverpool have won five trophies since 2004-05: the 2005 Champions League, the 2005 UEFA Super Cup, the 2006 FA Cup, the 2006 Community Shield, and the 2012 League Cup. They had to beat Chelsea on the path to each of those triumphs.

Liverpool 2-1 Everton

Goals:
Jelavic 24'
Suarez 62'
Carroll 87'

So, how meaningful was that Blackburn win? Liverpool's last two matches have clearly demonstrated the importance of self-belief. That and late winners. Few things in life are better than late winners.

For just over an hour, Liverpool's tactics and team selection were under rightful heavy criticism because of yet another goal conceded because of yet another individual mistake. Agger was at left-back; Downing's ineffectiveness on the left forced him to the right, relegating Henderson to the left; and Gerrard and Spearing struggled to hold the center. And yes, Carragher was playing. But sometimes tactical and personnel errors can be overcome by self-belief.

Especially when David Moyes' Everton are your opponents. The Blues were just as insipid tactically, if not more so, failing to take advantage of Liverpool players out of position and only ahead because of Liverpool's Hari-Carra. Thankfully, what goes around comes around, and Distin's back-pass, incredibly reminiscent of Flanagan's on Tuesday, was seized upon by Suarez, holding off Distin before cleverly beating Howard with the outside of his right foot. From there, only one side was looking to win the match, limiting Everton to a couple of infrequent, self-inflicted counters. And in the 87th minute, Andy Carroll won the match.

The announced line-up did make a certain amount of sense. The front six was the same as the last derby, where Liverpool won 3-0. Agger at left back countered Osman, who frequently plays as a tucked-in midfielder, even if the change was as much to allow Carragher on the field. Again, disappointing, and evidently the wrong decision, but it's Carra, a derby, and he played well in the last one. I don't know what else to say. We all know the elephant in the room.

And Liverpool started relatively strongly: good work from Johnson and Carroll released Spearing, who shot over from distance within three minutes, and an uncleared dangerous set play ended when Skrtel hit his left-footed shot into the ground and too close to Howard. But both were tenuous half-chances, typical for a Merseyside derby, with Everton also threatening on Baines' free kick and when Neville beat Downing but Jelavic saw his attempted bicycle easily saved by Jones.

Then disaster struck, again. Typical Liverpool, and sadly, what's become typical Carragher. If it's any other player on the pitch, save maybe Gerrard, Agger clears immediately. But in this case, Agger leaves it after Skrtel's header ricocheted off Jelavic, either because Carra's screaming or just because of his presence, and when Carra finally takes the initiative, he slams his clearance off Cahill, falling perfectly for (a marginally-offside) Jelavic to slot home. Sigh.

At least Liverpool didn't fall apart, as has happened far too often after conceding, but Liverpool didn't have much of a reply either. The Reds continued to have more of the ball, helped by Everton's preference for sitting back and defending a lead, but frequently lost possession because either A) Downing was terrible on the left or B) too many players were looking for Gerrard to single-handedly rescue the side yet again. That Downing switched to the right late in the first half improved his performance, but rendered Henderson wholly insignificant. And having Henderson and Agger manning the left flank could and should have been punished by more threatening opposition than Osman and Neville.

Half-time couldn't have come sooner, and Liverpool came out for the restart better despite no changes, boosted by what was should have been 15 minutes of shouted lectures. In what eventually turned out to be a delicious bit of synchronicity, Carroll opened Liverpool's improved second-half by spurning an outstanding chance, just as he had on Tuesday. It wasn't especially delicious at the time, though. Soon after Spearing's through ball was just over-hit when he should have released Suarez clear on goal.

But then, Everton began taking the game to Liverpool, and a second goal despite Liverpool's improvement felt certain. It certainly wouldn't have been for the first time this season. However, Distin's equivalent moment of madness happened first, and from there, only one side looked capable of winning. Well, only Liverpool showed any initiative in finding a winner. Carragher still found time to almost be the scapegoat again, turned by Osman in the 77th and allowing Jelavic in behind on Fellaini's flick in the 82nd, but Jones saved the former and Jelavic hit the side-netting with the latter.

After going behind, Moyes finally attempted to take advantage of Liverpool's left flank, replacing Gueye with Coleman, an out-and-out right winger. But Coleman made little impact – Everton's chances came from the other side of the pitch – and Liverpool replaced Henderson with Maxi seven minutes later. The substitute set up Carroll twice – the first shot just wide from the top of the box, the second accidently blocked by Suarez, in the 77th and 84th respectively – but it was Liverpool's second substitute who ultimately made the difference, with Bellamy replacing Downing in the 84th.

Three minutes later, the Welshman's free kick from the left flank arced directly to Carroll's forehead, smartly positioned between Jelavic and Fellaini, unstoppably flicked backward and over the despairing Howard. Just like against Blackburn, a redemptive late winner after earlier missed chances but an overall decent display. There were better players on the pitch, but we couldn't have chosen a more-fitting goal-scorer. Never underestimate the potential for narrative fulfillment; real life loves a happy, appropriate ending almost as much as the movies.

Once again, there's more tactical uncertainty, questionable selections, and individual disappointments. But once again, Liverpool come away winners, refusing to lose a cup tie and obviously buoyed by last week's combative rally.

Suarez was Liverpool's best player, often Liverpool's best and only threat in attack, ruthlessly punishing Distin's solitary error, which was the crucial turning point. Carroll deservedly gets to play the hero for the second-straight match. Johnson and Skrtel continued to be defensive cornerstones, while Agger didn't disappoint in an unfamiliar position. And when changes came, they were the right changes, as both Maxi and Bellamy made a difference off the bench. There's still a fair few questions about both the squad and the manager, but at the very least, Liverpool have answered the mental questions over the last couple of matches. And those were the most important and most necessary. Oh, and now there's a second domestic cup final on the horizon. That should help the side's morale somewhat.

Now, Chelsea or Tottenham in the final, a club Liverpool's beaten in four consecutive matches or a club Liverpool's failed to beat in four consecutive matches. But until then, Liverpool need to continue demonstrating this newly-found self-belief in the league. It's a lot easier to lose confidence than keep building on slow, steady improvement.

Liverpool v Everton 04.14.12

7:30am ET, live in the US on FSC

Previous rounds:
Liverpool: 2-1 Stoke (h); 6-1 Brighton (h); 2-1 United (h); 5-1 Oldham (h)
Everton: 2-0 Sunderland (a); 1-1 Sunderland (h); 2-0 Blackpool (h); 2-1 Fulham (h); 2-0 Tamworth (h)

Last four head-to-head:
3-0 Liverpool (h) 03.13.12
2-0 Liverpool (a) 10.01.11
2-2 (h) 01.16.11
0-2 Everton (a) 10.17.10

Last three matches:
Liverpool: 3-2 Blackburn (a); 1-1 Villa (a); 0-2 Newcastle (a)
Everton: 4-0 Sunderland (h); 2-2 Norwich (a); 2-0 West Brom (h)

Goalscorers (all competitions):
Liverpool: Suarez 13; Bellamy 9; Gerrard 8; Carroll 7; Maxi 6; Kuyt 5; Skrtel 4; Adam, Downing 2; Agger, Coates, Henderson, Johnson, Kelly, Shelvey 1
Everton: Anichebe 6; Baines, Jelavic 5; Drenthe, Osman 4; Fellaini, Stracqualursi, Vellios 3; Cahill, Jagielka, Pienaar, Rodwell 2; Gibson, Gueye, Heitinga, Howard, Neville 1

Referee: Howard Webb

Guess at a line-up:
Jones
Johnson Skrtel Agger Enrique
Kuyt Gerrard Spearing Downing
Suarez Carroll

So, is it safe to stop Comolli-Cruyff Watch for a day or two?

Because of everything that's come before over the last few months, especially in league fixtures, this is now a season-defining match. It probably would be anyway; it's not often that both Merseyside clubs meet at Wembley for a cup final birth. But Liverpool's campaign has been focused on the cups for a some time now. Which makes it somewhat fitting that the road to the FA Cup is blocked by Liverpool's oldest, nearest, and dearest rivals.

As usual, the biggest guess comes in Liverpool's formation. Will Dalglish line up a 4-4-2, matching Everton's likely set-up, or a 4-2-3-1 with Suarez up front? And as usual, it all depends on Carroll. It'd be strange to see him dropped after Tuesday's immense late winner, more important for the resultant confidence boost than the result, but Dalglish has dropped others after better performances, and Carroll could definitely be fatigued after an hour-plus as a lone striker with the side down to 10 men.

Liverpool have played 4-4-2 with Carroll starting, and effectively at that, in both wins over Everton this season. The above formation is incredibly similar to the team which won convincingly when these sides last met. The only differences in the guessed XI and the one which won on March 13 is Johnson back at right-back and Kuyt in place of Henderson – because it's a big game, against Everton, and it's Dirk Kuyt. The Scourge of the Blues. Maxi missing out after Tuesday's performance seems slightly unfair, but he was clearly tiring by the hour mark and rarely has the legs for consecutive starts.

That Johnson and Agger came out of Tuesday's match unscathed couldn't have come at a better time. Both were handled excellently, prioritizing participation in tomorrow's match: Agger made important sub appearances in Liverpool's last two fixtures, Johnson started 53 good minutes (on the left, no less) against Blackburn. Liverpool's defense has massively missed both, especially the Dane, and Brad Jones will need all the help he can get.

It will be a vastly different Everton side to the one Liverpool beat at Anfield last month. Then as now, Moyes has focused on the FA Cup, understandably so. Pienaar is cup-tied and Rodwell is injured, but Gibson, Heitinga, Neville, Drenthe, Cahill, Osman, and Jelavic – the latter six on the bench for the Anfield meeting – should all start tomorrow.

Of course, Everton rested many of those players for their last league match against Sunderland and won 4-0, with all four goals coming in the second half. The Blues are unbeaten in five, and have lost just twice since January 11 – at Liverpool and Arsenal. Accordingly, given Liverpool's near-mirror image slide over the same time frame, Everton are now 7th in the league, a point ahead of their crosstown rivals.

As much as Everton would like to present otherwise, reveling in the underdog role against Big Bad Liverpool, they have to be the favorites tomorrow. Just look at the clubs' records over the past few months. Then look at the table. That Liverpool won the last two derbies means less than we'd hope: one, because each Derby is its own small self-contained war, and two, because of circumstances in each meeting – Rodwell's harsh red in the first, Everton's weakened XI in the second.

But Liverpool has reveled in the underdog role just as often this season, playing their best football when less-fancied and proactive football is less required. The Liverpool which has lined up in the cups has often been completely different to Liverpool in the league – not in tactics or personnel, but in form and belief – especially since fourth place became a lost cause in late February. And while Liverpool's last two results aren't especially impressive at face value – a home draw and late away win against relegation contenders! – both were important because of the fight needed to earn each result.

For once (well, twice, actually), Liverpool didn't accept unlucky fate, and worked diligently to turn bad fortune around. That type of reaction will be vital against a diligent, fighting opponent such as Everton in such a massively important, season-defining cup tie.